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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Thundery showers seems to be the theme for Saturday with some spots getting the odd thunderstorm or two. 

Wouldn't be expecting anything much really in my personal opinion. Moist air though which'll boost the potential for some storms.

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Edited by Jamiee
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

There are slight modelling timing differences for Saturday which are interesting. We have an upper level trough swinging across the UK with GFS modelling showing it arriving Saturday night while MetOffice fax charts suggest that it cross the the UK during early evening.

The track record for GFS this year is to move this type of trough too slowly across the UK and the MetOffice to be more accurate but still a little slow. Equally modelling tends to keep the trough a little south of where it ends up.

If things go to form and its risky to second guess how weather models might be wrong then we could see thunderstorms Saturday afternoon which may not be on the modelling radar yet.

It is difficult to tell whether the trough will be tilted and we need some sort of modelling agreement to guess at potential but it is worth keeping an eye on.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

1 year ago today...

blitzortung.thumb.png.81e489f8f8eac49057756a65a33a5fc3.png   largethumb.thumb.png.22cf7d2850708a87b4ac4fd0eafaa9f4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
2 hours ago, Zak M said:

1 year ago today...

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And to think last summer was pretty bad overall for storms....

At least it squeezed a plume out.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

We've had our allocation of lightning and rumbles for the next ten years so not expecting a Brucie Bonus for Saturday. Fingers crossed though.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

19 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

The 15z UKV is looking better on that intense 'clump' of rain across the south during Saturday afternoon! 

viewimage.pbx?type=ukv;date=20200723;tim

Certainly showing quite a bit more than anything I've seen for while.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Will be interesting to see Dan's thoughts for that day.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

For tomorrow

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Jul 2020

ISSUED 21:08 UTC Thu 23 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Friday evening and night, increase mid-level instability and steepening mid-level lapse rates in the vicinity of the cold front could result in some embedded elevated convection evolving across parts of Ireland, drifting towards SW Scotland, NW Wales and NW England. Forecast profiles exhibit moist low/mid-levels overlain by a rather dry mid/upper level layer. While a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible in these areas, confidence in much in the way of lightning is rather low.

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WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Saturday still looking interesting,i may throw a chase day in

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

A year ago from roughly now the last storm I saw had just moved away from here. :oldsorry:

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Posted
  • Location: hinckley, Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: stormy please.
  • Location: hinckley, Leicestershire
1 hour ago, IanieKetchup said:

I'm surprised there's not more hype about tomorrow? The last few months have been very active on here if there's even a sniff of thunder. 

Agree, tomorrow is looking quite promising for large parts of the UK to see some decent organized storms, and depending on how quickly the fronts move through, we could actually see some rotation (unlikely, but possible)

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

UKV run for tomorrow. Some agreement on a thundery blob forming in the Channel then moving NE, clipping the S Coast & poss Kent.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Potential for some hefty showers with thunder later in the afternoon and running in to the evening. A line of showers, perhaps, running SW to NE from Cornwall toward the Wash area.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Still some timing differences in the models.It is worth remembering that temperatures tomorrow will not be that high so low level lapse rates will be weak, potentially limiting updraft potential. It is starting to look like a combination of upper trough and low level wind convergence being a trigger for convective development. Low level wind convergence is tricky to model so exact placement of convection will be subject to change on the day. I should also point out lightning wizard cloud top height modelling which does not suggest very high cloud tops across the very south of the UK.Lightning wizards dynamic tropopause chart also hints that local convection conditions might lead to some over shooting tops though. It also looks like parts of Scotland may be in with a chance of storms as well. It is still tricky to pin point as this stage where and how strong storms might be.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Tony Gilberts UKWW Update sounds more like an SPC Update with mention of Tornado Events and possible Supercells.

Eyes down for the model runs overnight

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Tony Gilbert Update at 15:17

Slight Risk of Thunderstorms UK & Ireland. Large Hail Possible and an Isolated Tornado event. 11z-00z

Brief Synop;
Upper long wave trough rotates and extends southward across the UK & Ireland.
Upper jet axis primarily runs to the south of the UK but extends a very diffluent front left exit region toward the UK encouraging upper lift.
Surface flow mixed Returning Polar Maritime/ Arctic Maritime
Surface low; Quasi stationary NW of Scotland.

Discussion;
An interesting outlook with the added bonus that the environment looks moderately sheared. Initial cold front is followed by a post frontal surface trough late in the day. These two frontal boundaries based on the current model output look to be in close proximity and looks hard to see the divide till late afternoon. WRF model develop CAPE to 1,300 j/kg by early afternoon primarily Midlands. DLS looks fairly robust based on the introduction of a mid level jet at 500mb. Current projection of winds at this layer look around 60kts. This combined with the suggest level of CAPE could produce one or two severe thunderstorms for Southern and SE UK regions. Primary risk will be large hail.
Particular attention is given from mid afternoon for southern counties; Cornwall through to Sussex where the combination of moist air from mild SST's over the English Channel become fairly buoyant. Cloud tops expected to punch right up through 300mb which would in theory enter a very strong jet stream. If any vertical convective cell can build to this level utilising moisture from the English Channel we could well see an isolated Supercell develop (All subject to the mornings model update)! Upper humidity profiles initially look overly moist but as the cold front moves through look to overrun the surface frontal boundary and should add significant upper buoyancy by reaching Dorset/ Hants.
Wind gust of 40kts possible. Some very heavy downpours but with steering winds moving storms quite fast at around 30kts. Southern counties could nevertheless see localised flooding NOT based on point deluge but by subsequent convective cells dropping dbz on the same track and location for a period of time!

It would appear that tomorrow could in fact see one or two moderate strength tornado events. Current analysis might suggest somewhere between Dorset and Kent coastal counties 13z-21z

Footnote; I cannot currently rule out the risk of an isolated tornado central east region (maybe just west of Humber) ?. Will need to update in the morning!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

AROME vs ARPEGE vs ICON vs UKV for tomorrow at 4pm

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Edited by Jamiee
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

UKV for tomorrow

ukvgif.gif

Edited by matt111
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21 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

Is it me or unually silent considering what maybe happening tomorrow? Perhaps we are instead looking on the weather channel to see the Hurricane and tropical storm action instead?

I mentioned this a few posts up. Where's everyone gone? It looked threatening this afternoon near me in Aylesbury. Possibly where the path may be tomorrow?

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Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
3 minutes ago, IanieKetchup said:

I mentioned this a few posts up. Where's everyone gone? It looked threatening this afternoon near me in Aylesbury. Possibly where the path may be tomorrow?

Let down after let down renders me at least highly unenthusiastic anymore re storm potential, there are only so many times the boy can call wolf.  I expect a dry, storm free day tomorrow as per.  

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