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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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1 hour ago, Lance M said:

This year has got some serious catching up to do to avoid being the worst year in my memory for thundery activity. People further north will laugh at that statement, but I'm not exaggerating in the slightest about just how poor it's been down here.

There's been two weak TS in the vicinity of here this year plus I watch some elevated storms die out about 30miles from the coast during the failed breakdown a couple of weeks again. Its beer really poor again......

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
1 hour ago, Lance M said:

This year has got some serious catching up to do to avoid being the worst year in my memory for thundery activity. People further north will laugh at that statement, but I'm not exaggerating in the slightest about just how poor it's been down here.

It's been very poor. I'd usually have a dozen storms by now but there's been barely anything. 2 storms, one a thundery shower (lasting longer than 10 minutes), the other an actual storm. Other bits have just been a flash or a rumble.

Edited by Jamiee
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
2 hours ago, Lance M said:

This year has got some serious catching up to do to avoid being the worst year in my memory for thundery activity. People further north will laugh at that statement, but I'm not exaggerating in the slightest about just how poor it's been down here.m

 

Nothing at all here yet apart from a distant rumble and the storm in the channel that never made it as @Alderc mentioned above. 

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Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
7 hours ago, Lance M said:

This year has got some serious catching up to do to avoid being the worst year in my memory for thundery activity. People further north will laugh at that statement, but I'm not exaggerating in the slightest about just how poor it's been down here.

100% - I had 2 days in a row of hearing thunder back in June and had the closest strike I think I've ever had but didn't actually see a single bolt of lightning and the storms were over in a flash (sorry!)... another dire year so far, so boring.  The general decline of storms the last 10 years or so is continuing, imby's at least. 

Edited by James1979
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Bit quiet in here. :lazy:

So the models showing potential for the annual late July heat. Next chance for some decent storms?

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
1 hour ago, matt111 said:

Bit quiet in here. :lazy:

So the models showing potential for the annual late July heat. Next chance for some decent storms?

3 days and a thunderstorm. July 16th heat spell seems to happen 80% of the time apparently.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

These are the dates I've had storms in July in the 3 years I've lived here before this year.

2017: 18th, 19th, 29th

2018: 26th, 27th

2019: 23rd, 24th (I think it was just one storm but it was near midnight and went on a while so I counted it as 2 days)

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Pointing at the 20th and the 21st

Might be some storms today. Nothing like a plume though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Pointing at the 20th and the 21st

That doesn't mean anything to it's more in the reliable time frame

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Decent storms currently ongoing in Yorkshire 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

To the north-west around 20 minutes ago. Not much thunder on it yet though.

20200710_143924.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Thunder in the triangle, Halesworth has had two claps thunder, can’t see any lightening though. But it’s the best we’ve had this year

now lightening!! Yay for us,

Edited by Blazerblue
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 13 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 14 Jul 2020

ISSUED 07:23 UTC Mon 13 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Outbreaks of rain running eastwards across southern Ireland / Celtic Sea towards SW Wales / SW England on Monday daytime may contain some weak embedded elevated convection. While some heavy bursts of rain will be possible, saturated profiles and meagre CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.

Otherwise, the main area of interest during this forecast period is E / NE Scotland where should sufficient cloud breaks develop for some surface heating on Monday afternoon, the environment may be supportive for a few heavy showers developing, perhaps moreso as they leave the east coast and drift out to the North Sea. Depth of convection will likely be somewhat limited, and so the risk of lightning is quite low but an odd isolated strike is not ruled out.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-07-13

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Hmm I don’t think this was expected today?

F185FD6B-B1D1-4501-94B3-ADA909686549.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
38 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Hmm I don’t think this was expected today?

F185FD6B-B1D1-4501-94B3-ADA909686549.jpeg

BBC Weather mentioned some sharp showers 'rumbling around' near to the IOW. 

Interestingly, we had a really dark and stormy looking sky, complete with some mammatus around an hour ago. Along with that it does feel quite humid today.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Yep It feels and looks ripe here too, and even some spots of rain falling from clouds moving no where now, not sure it will storm here though. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

HiYep It feels and looks ripe here too, and even some spots of rain falling from clouds moving no where now, not sure it will storm here though. 

1594747202714-1241558011.jpg

1594747375977-976412544.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

Yeah, seen some unstable skies in London for a couple of days running.  That said, if it's capped, it's capped.  There ain't no shallow-fry lightning

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
6 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

Yeah, seen some unstable skies in London for a couple of days running.  That said, if it's capped, it's capped.  There ain't no shallow-fry lightning

That’s what I thought. Everyone ‘in the know’ must be pretty convinced that there won’t be enough heating to kick any deep convection off.

Some great clouds about though

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells, snow, thunder snow, tornadoes
  • Location: North Cornwall

Does anyone know when the next chance of any activity down near me is? 

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