Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh good plan, its not a written rule where convection will fire but most models on the 06z suite are showing a general area of Birmingham around to Cheshire and swinging back around to Western Norfolk and moving north from there, could be derbyshire though if the convergence sets up further north and initiation lasts until later which would probably be better anyway. A Solid Supercell using up all that energy over 10 small storms would always be a winner

I agree on that, hopefully that will be the case this afternoon/evening. Sun is breaking out here now, so good signs.

[StormChaseUK]

Hmm all the heat is down south at moment though,  I'd be looking at places like Worcester, Oxford to build up storms rather than 18C temps up north, unless I'm wrong.

I know if I was a thunderstorm i'd much prefer 28C to 17C or 18C

[Frosty hollows]

2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Hmm all the heat is down south at moment though,  I'd be looking at places like Worcester, Oxford to build up storms rather than 18C temps up north, unless I'm wrong.

I know if I was a thunderstorm i'd much prefer 28C to 17C or 18C

We've got the heat, but it's heavily capped and I can't see the cap being broken here

[StormChaseUK]

Yes running the radar there is a definite eastwards shift now rather than the south to north of yesterday.   

[Mapantz]

No heat here. 17°C overcast and a chilly breeze. The result of nothing yesterday and still the weather poops on you.

[Chris.R]

The Sun is coming out now.

[Jeffers146]

Cloud here in Lincoln has started to disappear in the last 30 mins. Sun is now out and feels very warm and humid. After no storms at all this year so far I have a feeling today may well be the day. Let’s wait and see.

[Cableguy]

7 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

We've got the heat, but it's heavily capped and I can't see the cap being broken here

Is there even any energy to tap into down here in the wasteland? It is warmer than forecast already

[Allezwasps.]

8 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

We've got the heat, but it's heavily capped and I can't see the cap being broken here

Still hoping we may get something later tonight or later this afternoon but not very hopeful as all we have had this year is a distant flash and fart whilst the others got battered up the road ... lol .

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Most of the short range models didn’t have the main action up around here until this evening and tonight, looks like a game of patience currently have the cloud but if you look on sat24 it’s easy to see it’s the thin high level cloud so hopefully it either clears or isn’t too much of a hinderance. 

[Dami]

oh well *sigh*

Melting for nothing.

[Chris Thomas]

Thinking of hitting up Ely/West Norfolk area. Always a great place to chase if a storm lands. 

[BrickFielder]

I don't have a lot of confidence in the modelling today as it looks to me as if the modelling is about 3 to 4 hours to slow in moving things north and east.  This moves the storm risk further towards the north east in my view. It does however perhaps bring other factors into play which wont be modeled. Here I am looking towards the south west initially.  Last time I questioned the modelling though, the models were correct and I was wrong so take this with a pinch of salt.

[TropicThunder]

Very warm and humid here, feels ripe for a storm but suspect this will be the breeding ground. Thinking of heading out towards Lincolnshire / The Wash area later as there's certainly potential for some good storms today.

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

Thinking of hitting up Ely/West Norfolk area. Always a great place to chase if a storm lands. 

I really like that area and know Dan is chasing there today, sadly other commitments curtail me but would be all over that Kings Lynn Risk.

Its 2c warmer here already than yesterdays top temperature, partly down to a southerly wind today and easterly yesterday

[Atmogenic]

The storms that came through Kent at 5:30am woke me up which caused annoying stress, but the thunder was great. I recorded a bit of it but missed a couple of loud ones

 

[Frosty hollows]

15 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

Still hoping we may get something later tonight or later this afternoon but not very hopeful as all we have had this year is a distant flash and fart whilst the others got battered up the road ... lol .

Yep. Hit the Thames, lift over the Chilterns and BOOM! However, I think even High Wycombe will be out of luck today. 

[Zak M]

There's some towering cumulus to my NE 

[Frosty hollows]

19 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Is there even any energy to tap into down here in the wasteland? It is warmer than forecast already

It's hot. And that's about it I'll be more than happy for Mother Nature to spring a surprise,though!

[StormChaseUK]

ouch cornwall 13C, SW Wales 15C   currently big drop,  the fresher air is now rushing in from the SW.  So any storms that do form will need to in that warm air east of it otherwise chances are 0%

[Weather-history]

Matt Hugo latest thoughts on twitter

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I really like that area and know Dan is chasing there today, sadly other commitments curtail me but would be all over that Kings Lynn Risk.

Its 2c warmer here already than yesterdays top temperature, partly down to a southerly wind today and easterly yesterday

Should rename it to ‘King Amazing Storms Lynn

[B McG]

Just seen a bolt at Stevenage 

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[Dbarb]

Some clouds starting to bubble here now, not much but clouds starting to form 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, B McG said:

Just seen a bolt at Stevenage 

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I’m in Stevenage, it’s clear blue sky...it was a false return I’m afraid