Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, Jamiee said:

Didn't expect that all when I looked at them. We just need ignition then boom.

Yep, hills and a shortwave should be able to, hopefully .

[staplehurst]

27 minutes ago, bradleywx said:

I’ve got a hunch that tomorrow afternoon’s SB activity is currently being underplayed, models are notoriously with them in particular anyway..maybe I’m being optimistic but based on what I’ve seen there’s no reason to believe it’ll be restricted to just far eastern/north eastern counties, proper ingredients are in place well away from there.

edit: met office have increased likelihood on tomorrow’s warning, shape looks similar? I suppose that was always expected however. 

Environment is too capped (CIN shaded green, CAPE shaded orange) across SE England for surface-based storms on Friday afternoon, the hot air is just too deep to overcome the cap - you would need surface temperatures of around 34C or higher, and even then the profile is very dry aloft. This does not rule out the odd elevated shower/storm developing, but most of these will have cleared to the east by the afternoon - and the morning cloud cover associated with these may also hinder surface temperatures somewhat.

Conversely NW England has much less capping, and with surface temperatures of 25C or higher, and dewpoints in the mid-high teens, the forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE and likely explosive and potentially severe thunderstorm development.

Edited June 25, 2020 by staplehurst

[viking_smb]

3 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Environment is too capped (CIN shaded green, CAPE shaded orange) across SE England for surface-based storms on Friday afternoon, the hot air is just too deep to overcome the cap - you would need surface temperatures of around 34C or higher, and even then the profile is very dry aloft. This does not rule out the odd elevated shower/storm developing, but most of these will have cleared to the east by the afternoon - and the morning cloud cover associated with these may also hinder surface temperatures somewhat.

Conversely NW England has much less capping, and surface temperatures of 25C or higher, and dewpoints in the mid-high teens, the forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE and likely explosive and potentially severe thunderstorm development.

what about the rain coming into the south west, is that the trough coming in quicker?

Edited June 25, 2020 by viking_smb

[Chris.R]

for NW England  I think everything will be over by the time the warning  startes at 12:00 on Friday. Don’t really understand the timings. That’s going by WRF but it may just be for me on the coast with the dreaded sea-breeze. Saturday morning looks very good now before the wind veers to the west again..

Edited June 25, 2020 by Chris.R

[ItIsGee]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome 00z had these areas of Storms initiating this morning at 10z drifting towards SE Ireland and West Wales which could scupper the bigger Surface Based Risk limiting solar heating with cloud debris and anvil shield

i love it when you talk technical.....ooooorrrrghghgh

[Wonkyfunk303]

2 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Its a Birthday for the Cone and Triangle today

11 months since the last Cg Strike. 

Can we make it to July 25th - Still quietly confident lol

I shall not be taking any chances and will be out and about in the early hours favouring the Channel Coast somewhere in Hampshire I would think

paul, where abouts and is that tonight into tomorrow early hours or friday night into sats early hours?

[Tom Jarvis]

52 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Solid Target Area Tom 

Pm me if your in the area as would like to meet an fellow chaser

[Josh Rubio]

21 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Environment is too capped (CIN shaded green, CAPE shaded orange) across SE England for surface-based storms on Friday afternoon, the hot air is just too deep to overcome the cap - you would need surface temperatures of around 34C or higher, and even then the profile is very dry aloft. This does not rule out the odd elevated shower/storm developing, but most of these will have cleared to the east by the afternoon - and the morning cloud cover associated with these may also hinder surface temperatures somewhat.

Conversely NW England has much less capping, and with surface temperatures of 25C or higher, and dewpoints in the mid-high teens, the forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE and likely explosive and potentially severe thunderstorm development.

How’s it looking for the East Midlands in relation to this? Thanks. 

[Paul Sherman]

23 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Environment is too capped (CIN shaded green, CAPE shaded orange) across SE England for surface-based storms on Friday afternoon, the hot air is just too deep to overcome the cap - you would need surface temperatures of around 34C or higher, and even then the profile is very dry aloft. This does not rule out the odd elevated shower/storm developing, but most of these will have cleared to the east by the afternoon - and the morning cloud cover associated with these may also hinder surface temperatures somewhat.

Conversely NW England has much less capping, and with surface temperatures of 25C or higher, and dewpoints in the mid-high teens, the forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE and likely explosive and potentially severe thunderstorm development.

To be Fair to the North West they havent had Severe Storms or Supercells for 7 days now so they are due 

[Jamie M]

6 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

How’s it looking for the East Midlands in relation to this? Thanks. 

Looks decent. No 34c cap. Wouldn't rule out a storm.

PS:

My skills at reading SkewTs are shoddy so I could be completely wrong.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Jamiee

[Paul Sherman]

4 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Pm me if your in the area as would like to meet an fellow chaser

Will do

[Snipper]

Currently shown thunderstorms on Windy app.
 

[Harry]

Latest MetO rain prediction update less impressive across S/SE tomorrow morning.

[Jamie M]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest MetO rain prediction update less impressive across S/SE tomorrow morning.

Not too good.

[Azazel]

Arpege and Arome both keep everything wayyy to the west of me. 
HIRLAM looks a little better - a 50 mile shunt east would be the jackpot.

GFS probably the pick of the bunch. 
 

Really would like to see the better higher res models start shunting this thing east. 

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Currently shown thunderstorms on Windy app.
 

Omg if that stuff in france stays as it is the whole south will get hammered, and if it moves north, whole UK. 

[karyo]

26 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

for NW England  I think everything will be over by the time the warning  startes at 12:00 on Friday. Don’t really understand the timings. That’s going by WRF but it may just be for me on the coast with the dreaded sea-breeze. Saturday morning looks very good now before the wind veers to the west again..

Check the euro 4, aperge etc. They have the first thundery band reaching northwest England around midday and then as this moves north/northeast, further cells develop over us as well as northeast Wales and North Mids.

[staplehurst]

14 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

How’s it looking for the East Midlands in relation to this? Thanks. 

For the East Midlands (profiles below from west Lincs) there is potential for elevated thunderstorms during the middle of the day, rooted from around the ~750mb layer, so bases would be around 8-9,000ft. 

The low-level environment is capped to surface-based convection until perhaps late afternoon or evening, and so it's a bit touch-and-go as to whether something can fire, but if it does it's more likely during the evening hours... 

[ancientsolar]

2 hours ago, Jamiee said:

UKWW Forecast from Tony 

 

"UPDATE 8am Thurs

As per earlier forecast with following comments;

Broad variation in the models regarding timing. The outlook could start earlier today?

Using WRF Risk period adjusted potentially from 14z-03z and includes an extension of overnight elevated thunderstorms from 00z SW, Wales and Central regions.

WRF now increases 0-3km SRH potentially to 360 m/s2 SW and Wales 16z-22z. This is ample rotation for a severe thunderstorm with a low level mesocyclone. A risk of tornadoes is now also included for this zone. The risk of a tornado for Wales is now higher that Ireland and Scotland. Particular interest in the Carmarthen region. The caveat here for this region is that a strong layer of low level CIN may cause storms to root from above this layer for the whole of the risk period.

According to the WRF upper winds remain moderate. Models have further increased CAPE potential to 3000 j/kg. This combined with an elevated trop could see storms pushing above 200 mb. We therefore have the potential for large and damaging hail."

Is this for today into tomorrow, or tomorrow into Saturday ?

[Azazel]

Just now, ancientsolar said:

Is this for today into tomorrow, or tomorrow into Saturday ?

For today into tomorrow 

[ancientsolar]

Just now, Azazel said:

For today into tomorrow 

Thanks! 

All eyes to the South then 
I'm wondering if there's any elevated lightning in the SW which won't be picked up by the lightning detectors

[Paul Sherman]

Arome is a horror show for England from the first batch. 

[oliverek7]

24 minutes ago, Harry said:

Latest MetO rain prediction update less impressive across S/SE tomorrow morning.

Latest MetO video forecast showed much more widespread rain across the SE than that so I’m very confused

Edited June 25, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[sparky1972]

certainly looking like this warm spell is going to end on a whimper for here, maybe a bit of light rain tomorrow and saturday looking wet but no storms currently forecast.

[Snipper]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Omg if that stuff in france stays as it is the whole south will get hammered, and if it moves north, whole UK. 

To be honest running the app’s timeline it doesn’t show much thunder activity affecting the UK over the next few days. Certainly nothing like indicated down in southern France.