Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

It's already 25/26C round here with humidity hovering just over 60%. It's feekin' nasty.

 

Someone turn the steam cooker off I'm already done! 

  Feels like this.

[Paul Sherman]

Arome 00z had these areas of Storms initiating this morning at 10z drifting towards SE Ireland and West Wales which could scupper the bigger Surface Based Risk limiting solar heating with cloud debris and anvil shield

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Arome 00z had these areas of Storms initiating this morning at 10z drifting towards SE Ireland and West Wales which could scupper the bigger Surface Based Risk limiting solar heating with cloud debris and anvil shield

I think arome is right to be honest paul, as they are coming into the south west pretty fast, plus a bigger bit of rain coming out of france shortly. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by viking_smb

[Zak M]

2 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

All in favour of the latest UKV, say aye.                       Aye!

OMFG!!

I did not expect that...

[Zak M]

40 minutes ago, A.J said:

as a couple of members have noted, ignore the nuances of todays model outputs as how many times before have we seen the following?....

10:00pm....."Radar's dead, ITS A BUST, CALL THE WAAAAAAAAMBULANCE !!"

11:00pm....

 

I laughed way harder at this than I should have 

[Azazel]

Posted by Smartie over on UKWW

7.5km WRF grid initialised with the 00Z GFS run:

Look at the size of that monster. Shame if lightning is concentrated on its western flank though 

[Tom Jarvis]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Its a Birthday for the Cone and Triangle today

11 months since the last Cg Strike. 

Can we make it to July 25th - Still quietly confident lol

I shall not be taking any chances and will be out and about in the early hours favouring the Channel Coast somewhere in Hampshire I would think

Paul I’m thinking of getting up at 3:30 tomorrow morning and driving down to Selsey just hope it will be worth it 

[thunderhead 2005]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Posted by Smartie over on UKWW

7.5km WRF grid initialised with the 00Z GFS run:

Look at the size of that monster. Shame if lightning is concentrated on its western flank though 

We'd be in for a great show so no complaints here

[SalopWatcher]

Looks like I might need a trip west to the Welsh Border (15 or so miles) - With the rules in place I cant cross it which would be annoying if there is something worth chasing... 

[Jamie M]

Always good fun to look at modelled IR Sat Imagery.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Always good fun to look at modelled IR Sat Imagery.

So round and clean

[Jamie M]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So round and clean

Yes.

Here's some of my favourites from the years.

[Jamie M]

30°C has been reached in Wales.

[Paul Sherman]

21 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Paul I’m thinking of getting up at 3:30 tomorrow morning and driving down to Selsey just hope it will be worth it 

Solid Target Area Tom 

[Ryukai]

10 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

30°C has been reached in Wales.

The UV index is off the charts on all the Wunderground stations near to me already (maxed out at 11+ for the ones in direct sunlight)   Stay safe if your outside today peeps!

Edited June 25, 2020 by Ryukai

[WxHerts]

I’ve got a hunch that tomorrow afternoon’s SB activity is currently being underplayed, models are notoriously with them in particular anyway..maybe I’m being optimistic but based on what I’ve seen there’s no reason to believe it’ll be restricted to just far eastern/north eastern counties, proper ingredients are in place well away from there.

edit: met office have increased likelihood on tomorrow’s warning, shape looks similar? I suppose that was always expected however. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by bradleywx

[Paul Sherman]

Yh Met Office updated and extended the Warnings for tonight further east into Sussex, Surrey and Kent

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Is that area of disturbance coming into NW France quicker and ahead of modelled schedule? if so, then we could see more areas getting treated to elevated storms possibly tonight. Unfortunately, I’m not going to be able to chase tomorrow as I’m busy. I’m gutted and it’s so typical of my luck! 

If I do see anything however, I will make the best of it as much as I can! Good luck to all. Hopefully we can squeeze another plume event in before the summer is out! 

[Jamie M]

Extended to Saturday.

 

[Sparkiee storm]

Has anyone got ML CAPE charts for overnight, or can link me to where i can find them? 

[Jamie M]

Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

Has anyone got ML CAPE charts for overnight, or can link me to where i can find them? 

Blimey.

[oliverek7]

4 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Blimey.

Lovely  imagine when we get ignition...

Edited June 25, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[philglossop]

Already climbing temps here, I'd say 26 or 27 happily. Sky is looking much more milky towards the South and over Plymouth Sound. 

[Sparkiee storm]

3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Blimey.

Thank you , and i agree, Blimey indeed. I expected it to be high but with the max around 2000 J/KG in some parts, that exceeded my expectations lol. 

[Jamie M]

Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

Thank you , and i agree, Blimey indeed. I expected it to be high but with the max around 2000 J/KG in some parts, that exceeded my expectations lol. 

Didn't expect that all when I looked at them. We just need ignition then boom.