Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Harry]

Something interesting I saw this morning. Despite overnight temperatures of 15-16C, there was a dew this morning- explains why around 23:00 it suddenly felt very uncomfortable. Given there’s going to be a surge in moisture tonight it’s going to feel awful! 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Harry

[Paul Sherman]

Its a Birthday for the Cone and Triangle today

11 months since the last Cg Strike. 

Can we make it to July 25th - Still quietly confident lol

I shall not be taking any chances and will be out and about in the early hours favouring the Channel Coast somewhere in Hampshire I would think

[oliverek7]

Met office radar for 7am tomorrow looking very good. Nice line moving northeast

Edited June 25, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Snipper]

Keep safe in the sun. 

UK weather: Highest ever UV levels predicted today before thunderstorms end heatwave

APPLE.NEWS

---

Britain could see its highest UV levels ever recorded on Thursday as the UK's heatwave continues - before thunderstorms and torrential rain bring an abrupt end to the baking hot weather.

 

[ChannelThunder]

22 minutes ago, Harry said:

Something interesting I saw this morning. Despite overnight temperatures of 15-16C, there was a dew this morning- explains why around 23:00 it suddenly felt very uncomfortable. Given there’s going to be a surge in moisture tonight it’s going to feel awful! 

It felt horrific last night indeed. This is another reason I want to chase tonight. At least then you have the car window breeze and potentially storms for some relief. 

[Jamie M]

Anyone know what the guys at UKWW have forecasted? 

Can't seem to find a forecast anywhere.

[viking_smb]

there are showers forming close to the south coast now quite early as well, 

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

there are showers forming close to the south coast now quite early as well, 

Don’t see any on the radar. Only south west

[viking_smb]

Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Don’t see any on the radar. Only south west

thats what I meant

[Azazel]

8 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Anyone know what the guys at UKWW have forecasted? 

Can't seem to find a forecast anywhere.

I can’t access their convective outlook forum anymore:(

[oliverek7]

Just now, viking_smb said:

thats what I meant

Oh ok sorry

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I can’t access their convective outlook forum anymore:(

I cant either mate, 

olly dont worry about it mate lol, blitzortung has registered new strike in them though

Edited June 25, 2020 by viking_smb

[A.J]

as a couple of members have noted, ignore the nuances of todays model outputs as how many times before have we seen the following?....

10:00pm....."Radar's dead, ITS A BUST, CALL THE WAAAAAAAAMBULANCE !!"

11:00pm....

 

[viking_smb]

3 minutes ago, A.J said:

as a couple of members have noted, ignore the nuances of todays model outputs as how many times before have we seen the following?....

10:00pm....."Radar's dead, ITS A BUST, CALL THE WAAAAAAAAMBULANCE !!"

11:00pm....

 

I agree, I can only stay up till 11:30pm tonight due to me being up for work at 06:25 tomorrow, lets see how it pans out. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by viking_smb

[Dorsetbred]

31 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Its a Birthday for the Cone and Triangle today

11 months since the last Cg Strike. 

Can we make it to July 25th - Still quietly confident lol

I shall not be taking any chances and will be out and about in the early hours favouring the Channel Coast somewhere in Hampshire I would think

Well that's b#ggered any chance of us seeing storms tonight then.... there was me getting the camera out and batteries charged....doh...

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, A.J said:

as a couple of members have noted, ignore the nuances of todays model outputs as how many times before have we seen the following?....

10:00pm....."Radar's dead, ITS A BUST, CALL THE WAAAAAAAAMBULANCE !!"

11:00pm....

 

Yeahhh. I’ll probably go sit in a field somewhere facing south and get the old camping chairs/wireless speaker out the boot. A nice relaxing evening out in the shire if nothing else.

[Paul Sherman]

2 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Well that's b#ggered any chance of us seeing storms tonight then.... there was me getting the camera out and batteries charged....doh...

 

[Harry]

Given model guidance I won’t be setting an alarm before 05:00. 

[Frosty hollows]

I'm not going to get excited til tonight, being this far inland. Even then, there might not be anything to get excited about. Absolutely no inkling of destabilisation here. Clear blue skies, 27c already,RH an unremarkable 54%. Not ideal for a 9am outdoor HIIT class

[Jamie M]

UKWW Forecast from Tony 

 

"UPDATE 8am Thurs

As per earlier forecast with following comments;

Broad variation in the models regarding timing. The outlook could start earlier today?

Using WRF Risk period adjusted potentially from 14z-03z and includes an extension of overnight elevated thunderstorms from 00z SW, Wales and Central regions.

WRF now increases 0-3km SRH potentially to 360 m/s2 SW and Wales 16z-22z. This is ample rotation for a severe thunderstorm with a low level mesocyclone. A risk of tornadoes is now also included for this zone. The risk of a tornado for Wales is now higher that Ireland and Scotland. Particular interest in the Carmarthen region. The caveat here for this region is that a strong layer of low level CIN may cause storms to root from above this layer for the whole of the risk period.

According to the WRF upper winds remain moderate. Models have further increased CAPE potential to 3000 j/kg. This combined with an elevated trop could see storms pushing above 200 mb. We therefore have the potential for large and damaging hail."

[viking_smb]

 

couple of strikes close to the south west now. looks like a line of showers forming with a bit of heavy rain coming up from france

edit strike on netweathers radar by sidmouth can anyone confirm this?

Edited June 25, 2020 by viking_smb

[ChannelThunder]

Satellite looks promising in western France

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm not going to get excited til tonight, being this far inland. Even then, there might not be anything to get excited about. Absolutely no inkling of destabilisation here. Clear blue skies, 27c already,RH an unremarkable 54%. Not ideal for a 9am outdoor HIIT class

You have my sympathy!!!! 

[Ryukai]

56 minutes ago, Harry said:

Something interesting I saw this morning. Despite overnight temperatures of 15-16C, there was a dew this morning- explains why around 23:00 it suddenly felt very uncomfortable. Given there’s going to be a surge in moisture tonight it’s going to feel awful! 

It's already 25/26C round here with humidity hovering just over 60%. It's feekin' nasty.

 

Someone turn the steam cooker off I'm already done! 

[oliverek7]

The standard weather app on my iPhone is no longer showing a storm symbol for tomorrow. It is usually quite accurate for my area, and that has concerned me a bit. But will keep radar watching 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis