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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
2 hours ago, Stormhog said:

Way past caring about the models at this stage, just going to watch the sat imagery and hope for the best.

Agree, its into the real cast timeframe now

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Local weather se mention storms this evening and into tonight. Which sounds like they expect an earlier start than most models have showed, well all models actually. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

I think that for Friday's potential, it looks like I am too far south. The AROME and UKV, and pretty much any other model, break out storms on Friday afternoon/evening across the Midlands and N England. Obviously there is still time for that to change, but I am hoping that the stuff across the Channel delivers something.

image.thumb.png.9439b7fd394886ce81be0dc2734ce6f3.pngimage.thumb.png.508dc2c876985e2556a8a74df992e6ab.pngimage.thumb.png.357af4001aab950449ced8256980f054.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 25 JUNE 2020

stormmap_250620_1.thumb.png.cf5aa5a572171ac09f1f9a105a70b909.png

Issued 2020-06-24 22:39:37
Valid: 25/06/2020 0600 - 26/06/2020 0600

Forecast Details

Upper trough extending south over the far north Atlantic to the W of Britain will start to sharpen through Thursday as it slowly edges east towards Britain. This will strengthen the southerly flow and pull north a plume of warm/moist air, characterised by wet-bulb potential temperatures (theta-w) of 16-18C across much of Britain.

The plume will begin to destabilise across N, Ireland and far western Scotland initially on Thursday morning, as cooling aloft from upper trough to the west and WAA support differential thermal advection and increase MLCAPE, with a risk of elevated thunderstorms developing and spreading north here for a time, before clearing north.

Then later the plume looks to destabilise much further south across SW England and Ireland, again through differential thermal advection and increasing lift from lobes of positive vorticity advection or shortwave trough moving north in strengthening southerly flow. So elevated thunderstorms look to breakout here during the afternoon, spreading north across Ireland, N. Ireland, Wales, Irish Sea and western Scotland through the evening. Frequent lightning, isolated large hail (2-3cm), strong wind gusts and intense rainfall leading to localised flash-flooding are possible.

Models do show quite large amounts of surface-based CAPE (1,000 – 1,400 j/kg) due to surface heating into the mid to high 20s Celsius of airmass characterised by dew points of 16-19C, however, Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) accompanying plume will likely cap this energy from being released. There is a low risk of surface-based convection developing isolated surface-based thunderstorms that could bring severe weather, given large CAPE and increasing deep layer 0-6km and low-level 0-1km shear, with severe hazards such as large hail (2-4cm), damaging wind gusts and flash-flooding – this most likely across N. Ireland, north Wales and SW Scotland. However, given uncertainties over surface initiation, refrained from issuing severe areas for now.

Shortwave trough moving north overnight from France looks to bring another wave of elevated thunderstorms northwards, this time further east across central S England, Midlands, and perhaps SE England by 6am, the end of this forecast for Thursday. Again, these storms could bring frequent lightning, isolated large hail (2-3cm), strong wind gusts and flash-flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

We seem to be in a good position again in the West Midlands, although maybe not the best. I think areas to our south have a higher chance. I'm still fairly confident though.

With this more 'traditional' set up, if you can call it that, I think some areas who missed out last week should have their patience rewarded.

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Brewing down to the SW already and its electric.

Screenshot_20200625-074042_NW Storm Radar.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

What do we think to Estofex in here, from what I see they’re usually fairly accurate?

http://www.estofex.org

Lvl 1 for SW England, Wales and up into Ireland!

Also, Convective weather have retracted their forecast  — edit, I see they’ve reissued as per MeltedFlake’s post!

29988F4E-CD15-49E5-AF4E-599828AD5239.png

Edited by dec10snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Could be an interesting Evening...

Screenshot_20200625-074721_Chrome.jpg

It's interesting to see that those erstwhile thunderstorm zones (aka The Cone and The Triangle) have our usual zilch/nearly zilch expectations!:oldlaugh:

IMO, our climate is most definitely a'changing; plumes are so intense, these days, that all the best destabilisation occurs in the West and in the North...?

image.thumb.png.6d57d4aeb62441cfb58a6eee521ce718.png

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth
15 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Could be an interesting Evening...

Screenshot_20200625-074721_Chrome.jpg

That will do nicely thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
23 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Could be an interesting Evening...

Screenshot_20200625-074721_Chrome.jpg

N Kent shield is in full effect on that forecast there. 

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

I have to say that the forecast for tomorrow looks poor on the storm front for my area, bbc graphics have us to far east and met office say we might see a light shower, but i will have camera ready just in case.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

1681246045_ukvgif(1).thumb.gif.807033e7f13f6fe47f829344b851dea3.gif

Well that's interesting to say the least.

03z UKV developing storms rapidly as they enter London/Essex then weakening as it pushes NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
  • Location: Andover, hampshire Uk
5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

So the UKV now suddenly not showing anything for us. Probably give it a miss then. 

i wouldn't loose hope buddy as the models are constantly changing, i am going to watch the radar

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

The UKV isn't exactly 100% right all the time, each run will vary (as is the case with all the other models too). What is worth noting though is that given the degree of CAPE over the English Channel overnight, any storm that does develop will be very active. Models will naturally struggle to simulate exactly where and when these will crop up, but the instability plume will be migrating gradually eastwards through the night so all areas have some level of 'risk' as a result. If I were in southern England tonight I would probably set a couple of alarms, window left open just in case - because it would be a shame to miss out on a potentially good show...

yep which is why convective weather added a moderate for the channel and coastal counties 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
9 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

The UKV isn't exactly 100% right all the time, each run will vary (as is the case with all the other models too). What is worth noting though is that given the degree of CAPE over the English Channel overnight, any storm that does develop will be very active. Models will naturally struggle to simulate exactly where and when these will crop up, but the instability plume will be migrating gradually eastwards through the night so all areas have some level of 'risk' as a result. If I were in southern England tonight I would probably set a couple of alarms, window left open just in case - because it would be a shame to miss out on a potentially good show...

I was bemoaning the usual downgrade in the high res models this morning, but your updated outlook has given me hope at least something will kick off and make it worth staying up for!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
17 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

The UKV isn't exactly 100% right all the time, each run will vary (as is the case with all the other models too). What is worth noting though is that given the degree of CAPE over the English Channel overnight, any storm that does develop will be very active. Models will naturally struggle to simulate exactly where and when these will crop up, but the instability plume will be migrating gradually eastwards through the night so all areas have some level of 'risk' as a result. If I were in southern England tonight I would probably set a couple of alarms, window left open just in case - because it would be a shame to miss out on a potentially good show...

Great words of wisdom there Dan! We surely must all by now know how these setups play out - they are very unpredictable. WRF-NMM modelling in the order of 1,500 to 2,000 CAPE wafting in through the night hours, sandwiched by drier air either side.

We’ve seen countless times over the years how models OCCASIONALLY predict with reasonable accuracy the occurrence of storms, but MOSTLY do not model it well at all. If one storm pops it can cause others to pop anywhere within the region of instability. There’s been occasions where one or two pop, none pop, and others where the whole area of instability ignites like an oil slick. 

The fact the instability is there and models are indicating detonation means I will be setting an alarm and keeping windows open (though given the heat the latter is a given!).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton

I don’t think the SE has actually never been so storm starved with so much opportunity since when did Ireland get severe storms from plumes from the south !!! Although lots of models show lots of different things. Radar watching from 18z I think 

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Posted
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
  • Location: South east England, broadstairs
4 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

I don’t think the SE has actually never been so storm starved with so much opportunity since when did Ireland get severe storms from plumes from the south !!! Although lots of models show lots of different things. Radar watching from 18z I think 

We will probs miss it

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