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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
26 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Think it's safe to say the UKV isn't budging 

temp.gif

Once again, thank you Matt. These are so helpful to see.

Starting to feel excited now; even if it's further west than the UKV as per other models and Paul's thinking, I will get myself in position to see them (barring a disaster and they're Devon-westwards only)

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Loving the way these models nowadays factor in the Cone of Silence, very last frame kills it stone dead to my South - Looks legit haha

Kills it right over me like the traditional N Kent way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

Looking ever more promising for the south and east into Friday 

9ACC8ED5-F442-4703-ADA0-3601BAF6CB11.jpeg

EB925A68-3B3B-4D65-9D64-4AFBABFC3262.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Looking ever more promising for the south and east into Friday 

9ACC8ED5-F442-4703-ADA0-3601BAF6CB11.jpeg

EB925A68-3B3B-4D65-9D64-4AFBABFC3262.jpeg

Ok, THAT has raised my hopes...

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ok, THAT has raised my hopes...

Looking like an MCS. Wonder if it’ll get pushed further southeast and become a Kent Clipper  

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK

Looking at the met office radar from their latest forecast it looks like this potential storm line on Friday morning extends right across the channel from North of London into northern France? 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats even further east than the ukv!!and i thought ukv was too far east!!

The ECM actually develops a few more storms to the NW of the main one and covers all of C/S England with storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats even further east than the ukv!!and i thought ukv was too far east!!

It ties in with the UKV in that UKV is similar to it come 6am. The UKV action shown further west is earlier in the night

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Interesting there's now a warning for three days from the Met. Local forecasts till having none of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
 
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this severe thunderstorms risk @staplehurst  - once again many thanks for putting out a fantastic detailed forecast! Always look forward to it! 

49926BEC-02FF-4F09-B5D1-98983E0F86D8.thumb.png.04ed9cb6d268323a3ef4762ba75b254f.png

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Coming back to tonight...if anything kicks off later/early hours I will be all over it! 

Lovely out there just now - really looking forward to the next 36-48 hours!

A34308A4-B562-4750-A068-D66E6D07C6D5.thumb.jpeg.d13576a69c14d21e3c45f7b3464e9afb.jpeg

 

All the best everyone!

I still find it mad how you still have the sun up there while we're heading into twilight down here! Definitely got to get myself up there one June

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Storms/Rain
  • Location: Portsmouth

Glad to say my annual leave has been given & Im free to travel from 1pm tomorrow.

New Gopro for the front dash, Nikon camera ready to go & a laptop full of the Simpsons to keep me occupied.

Been out on the Kayak today and its been incredibly hot, tonight its very humid outside - no breeze.

I need something fresh.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

all eyes on Sat 24 tomorrow, looking for any home grown developments over the West  

All eyes covered in sweat tonight .. as we try and keep cool

Edited by ancientsolar
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

Edited by matt111
Wrong image
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I am loving this severe thunderstorms risk @staplehurst  - once again many thanks for putting out a fantastic detailed forecast! Always look forward to it! 

49926BEC-02FF-4F09-B5D1-98983E0F86D8.thumb.png.04ed9cb6d268323a3ef4762ba75b254f.png

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Coming back to tonight...if anything kicks off later/early hours I will be all over it! 

Lovely out there just now - really looking forward to the next 36-48 hours!

A34308A4-B562-4750-A068-D66E6D07C6D5.thumb.jpeg.d13576a69c14d21e3c45f7b3464e9afb.jpeg

 

All the best everyone!

Fingers crossed we get lucky Mr Frost, Inverclyde has dodged the storms as of late so this severe risk has to deliver for us! 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

The West coast of Scotland looks like it could see a good lightning display. I have my camera and tripod at the ready if it all kicks off.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Still no real change on the latest UKV

temp.gif

It's consistent if nothing else! 

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Posted
  • Location: Lisburn, N.Ireland
  • Location: Lisburn, N.Ireland
1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

Has Ireland the far West of Scotland ever seen a risk like this before? 

I live in Lisburn and whilst we have had some decent storms, the last memorable lightning show during the night was back in June 2016,, but even then it wasn't forecast, it was an import from Wales that made its way across the Irish Sea and intensified over land, was a stifling hot day beforehand. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Although I understand resolution differences it’s not often the GFS can be forecasting 10mm in a 3 hour window and the Met Office little.

 

What does the NMM say.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
46 minutes ago, Lu. said:

New Gopro for the front dash, Nikon camera ready to go & a laptop full of the Simpsons to keep me occupied.

I hope you get some embiggenation

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