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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, matt111 said:

 

temp.gif

Blimey, that's too good to be true! Thank you for posting these!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

This looks tasty...

 

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I certainly like this...

 

I like the first bit. Not so keen on the bit afterwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
4 hours ago, Mapantz said:

It would be nice to see some elevated lightning Thursday night in to the turn of Friday, as it'll be my birthday. I fancy sitting under the gazebo with a cider and watching mother nature!

Well I certainly hope you get your birthday wish Mapantz. When done, please send them up my way to Wiltshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Some agreement with the Met Office and UKV for early Friday morning, a very similar shape and area of the activity on both.

1ts.PNG

2ts.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Some agreement with the Met Office and UKV for early Friday morning, a very similar shape and area of the activity on both.

1ts.PNG

2ts.PNG

UKV is one of the Met Office's models so I'm not surprised they look almost identical haha!

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

I'd still take the UKV though wouldn't be to much of a drive east along the M4!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV is one of the Met Office's models so I'm not surprised they look almost identical haha!

Ohh that explains it then, i was unaware of that, thanks for clarifying lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I must say that despite my GFS related elation (i should know better even at this range by now) the UKV is very poor up here unless it plans to unzip overnight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.7bdd056c849b99fb0967920c8f0c115e.png

Promising signs for the people of Kent that might get their first real taste of a storm this Summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
25 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Based on current model output, could be some monster thunderstorms across W Scotland & N Ireland tomorrow. A number of severe thunderstorms there a genuine possibility.

For Southern areas tomorrow night. UKV has looked increasingly impressive across CS England which is a positive; however UKV is currently the furthest east for any thundery activity so will need to pay attention to UKV, NMM, EURO4 & AROME updates later.

Now I’m never getting a storm since you’ve said that!  

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
1 hour ago, matt111 said:

 

temp.gif

I hope so! 

It's unlikely to play out exactly as shown, which is a shame as it's a direct hit for our neck of the woods!

Having said that, how wrong can it be when it is only a day away? 

Anyway I'm off to charge my camera, I have a good feeling I'm gonna be using it tomorrow ⛈️⛈️⛈️⛈️⛈️

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
8 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

see what the updates are like tomorrow morning.

Look out for Dan's update on convectiveweather.co.uk too, usually they're posted late in the evening. Although I'm sure we'll know about it in this thread not long after it goes out.

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Look out for Dan's update on convectiveweather.co.uk too, usually they're posted late in the evening. Although I'm sure we'll know about it in this thread not long after it goes out.

yeah he is pretty on the ball with this. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the gfs looking in terms of storms guys!!?

East favoured, esp NE, Leicester a chance I'd say, Saturday may actually be better chance for the west?

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Thing is, when I were a lad in the 70s and 80s, all our thunderstorms came up and survived the channel crossing.

Now they dont. So a squal line could be the best thing for us down in Devon. Mind you it's getting sticky as the days gone on and I gave up walking on the moors due to the heat today..

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

AROME 12z is not a good look for anywhere on the south coast besides Devon. AROME is hinting at MCS development but tracking straight up the Irish Sea.

tbh, I like the sound of that, as I can have a decent nights sleep as working fri

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