Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, hoping storms will brew during the afternoon to see some good towers build for the main activity to kick off later in the evening 

You’re in the storm corner of the country mate. You’ll be fine! Most storms seem to navigate their way to Lincs. Especially Grantham and Sleaford areas. Id wager a bet that they are the most thundery towns in the UK on average. 

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looking like another Eastward shift? Hoping Lincolnshire gets some good ones 

It’s moving west to east. This is a few hrs earlier ...

[Azazel]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s moving west to east. This is a few hrs earlier ...

Hmmm. Needs to slow itself down a good 12 hours.

[Zak M]

[ChannelThunder]

17 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Hmmm. Needs to slow itself down a good 12 hours.

Latest ECM keeps south coast in the game for the nighttime period. Fingers crossed, but the waiting game for the models to settle is a killer! Guessing we might see a Day 2 outlook from Dan soon enough, if there's any chance of anything severe.

If I was to bet right now I'd go for a round of elevated storms from midnight onward, slowly drifting in from the channel across Dorset, Hants, Sussex, with this dying off around breakfast time. Then in the afternoon, the remaining heat and CAPE gets sucked up by the cold front and brings storms from East Mids up to Pennines, clearing into the North Sea for the evening. This guess is mostly based on how some of these events have gone in the past

Edited June 23, 2020 by Lance M

[Mapantz]

What could possibly go wrong?

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Everything now that's showing it 

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Dammit, that's a plume killer right there!

[sparky1972]

41 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

You’re in the storm corner of the country mate. You’ll be fine! Most storms seem to navigate their way to Lincs. Especially Grantham and Sleaford areas. Id wager a bet that they are the most thundery towns in the UK on average. 

not in this part of Lincs they dont, lol, missed out a few days ago, and fear repeat on friday, lol

[ancientsolar]

21 minutes ago, Zak M said:

this shows a bunch of storms breaking out on Thursday, before the main band through the night ?

[Wilxy]

15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Game over next please! 

[matt111]

The UKV is interested @Mapantz 

Edited June 23, 2020 by matt111

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

The UKV is interested @Mapantz 

Bank!

[Zak M]

UK WRF-NMM is showing a similar scenario with violent surface-based storms breaking out on Friday afternoon

Edited June 23, 2020 by Zak M

[Paul Sherman]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

UK WRF-NMM is showing a similar scenario with violent surface-based storms breaking out on Friday afternoon

That one looks the most Plausable as the Cone and Triangle stay dry

BANK!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Allezwasps.]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

That one looks the most Plausable as the Cone and Triangle stay dry

BANK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Indeed , As is the way Everybody North of Bracknell gets a thumping , Lol .

[Marko1690]

As they show the development up the irish sea moving east will the isle of ireland get a sniff at the end of the week?

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's pretty clear that elevated storms dying off on Friday morning give way to surface based storms during Friday afternoon. Looks like the focus for surface based storms will be C and E areas. There could be a few western areas that miss out on the decent elevated stuff AND the surface based stuff, looking at the timing of it all.

Looks like I'm one of those places, typical.

[ancientsolar]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's pretty clear that elevated storms dying off on Friday morning give way to surface based storms during Friday afternoon. Looks like the focus for surface based storms will be C and E areas. There could be a few western areas that miss out on the decent elevated stuff AND the surface based stuff, looking at the timing of it all.

Looks like I'm one of those places, typical.

Just hoping for a few homegrown storms Thursday evening 

[Mapantz]

 

[viking_smb]

for thursday night, are they downgrading it now or doing eastward shift? 

[Frosty hollows]

56 minutes ago, Allezwasps. said:

Indeed , As is the way Everybody North of Bracknell gets a thumping , Lol .

Sorry about that

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Bank!

Double bank, would be perfect for a dusk trip to the cliff tops to see a light show and home for midnight!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Is anyone interested in a meet up at some point(social distancing of cause) at the end of the week for a mini UK storm chase

i am quiet happy to head down as far as the S midlands or as far north as Cumbria to Newcastle depending on timings and storm locations

somewhere in this circle but if the storms are really good then i will push the boundary a tad

PM me if you would like to meet up,happy storm chasing guys.

[Zak M]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Is anyone interested in a meet up at some point(social distancing of cause) at the end of the week for a mini UK storm chase

i am quiet happy to head down as far as the S midlands or as far north as Cumbria to Newcastle depending on timings and storm locations

somewhere in this circle but if the storms are really good then i will push the boundary a tad

PM me if you would like to meet up,happy storm chasing guys.

I think @North Sea Man will be there in that small little dot in the North Sea