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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Fingers crossed for a late night show. I’ll take anything but the idea of 6am storms from an elevated slate grey sky doesn’t whet my appetite as much.

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Posted
  • Location: Lisburn, N.Ireland
  • Location: Lisburn, N.Ireland

Thurs night/early hours of Fri looking good for north of Ireland, Been ages from we've had a decent night time storm,,, June 2016 was the last memorable one.... Fingers crossed

Edited by Scott H
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 hour ago, Azazel said:

GFS has storms moving into the south from around midnight on Thursday. 

The GFZ 00 and 06Z doesn't show anything in the South..

viewimage.thumb.png.b7eb84364b7cb88df7b2fc304e440096.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The GFZ 00 and 06Z doesn't show anything in the South..

viewimage.thumb.png.b7eb84364b7cb88df7b2fc304e440096.png

 

Mine does! How confusing!

Edit: you're 24 hours too early, just spotted it 

Edited by Lance M
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The 00Z Thursday shows nothing, 00Z Friday does, that's where I was confused.

1396709796_viewimage(1).thumb.png.61ba1dd00ea6233913ad659aceb91c56.png

I was interpreting it as the 00Z Thursday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the hours of Saturday morning.

hoorah.  

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

So much CAPE build up here on Wednesday evening and then overnight thursday in to Friday morning. Just need a trigger.

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Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
48 minutes ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

That would be amazing if further north I finish work 11pm that day

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

Yes please!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

Need this in my life

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Just a point when looking GFS and it’s Cape values, it’s massively over egging moisture even today. At 15z today it has large area of 16-18c dewpoints across central England, in reality they are 12-13c with a few 14s and 15s. 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Another GFS run showing a post-midnight light show is possible for the south coast on Thursday night...

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
2 hours ago, Zak M said:

06z GEM is pretty interesting, it delays the trough and sends what looks like an MCS through C/S England through Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday morning.

ICON indicating the same too, although less storm cluster more igniting front.

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Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds

Wow Friday indeed is looking very interesting. Around 1200-1500kJ of CAPE and LI up to around -4 to -6 in some areas! That is strong instability and a real potential for "severe".

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Local forecast having none of it still.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Everything on standby for Thursday then. Probably drive to the same field I drove to last July and nearly locked myself out of my car in the panic and lost part of my hubcap haha.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Right. Now it’s getting to the time for the high res models to decide, I’ll be watching them until Thursday evening. Still so much to be ironed out between then and now, and the forecasts are constantly chopping and changing. I’m hoping Thursday night can deliver some night time displays! Some models show activity breaking out over NW France and drifting N Thursday evening, and then a more SB development through Friday over the midlands. These events more often than not accelerate in time I find, so we can’t bank on anything until the event IMO. It may be on Thursday daytime we see developments, and then a late evening display. Plus the best activity almost always develops to the east of the modelled forecast of outbreaks. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

That's Friday booked off work, can't pass up on this one!

With heat like this there's a real chance of some severe storms if the right ingredients come into play

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looking like another Eastward shift? Hoping Lincolnshire gets some good ones 

image.png

Based on recent models that’s not a shift east to my mind - that’s a slight delay in the clearance of the heat. Long may it continue - a shunt back of a few hours would be great.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Based on recent models that’s not a shift east to my mind - that’s a slight delay in the clearance of the heat. Long may it continue - a shunt back of a few hours would be great.

Going to be interesting to see how it pans out, hoping storms will brew during the afternoon to see some good towers build for the main activity to kick off later in the evening 

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