Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, bradleywx said:

Elevated storms on offer here too Fri am, course whatever happens it'll end up being either west cornwall or east kent stealing the show

it will be interesting friday morning in work then, but it is too far out yet, lets look at it properly on weds, as others have said it usually gets corrected eastwards, towards kent.

Edited June 22, 2020 by viking_smb

[The PIT]

The forecasting has changed quite a bit each run so far so could all disappear or get even better in the next few days

[viking_smb]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

The forecasting has changed quite a bit each run so far so could all disappear or get even better in the next few days

in what way mate?

[Mapantz]

Just a little teaser from the UKV:

 

No MLCAPE to look at on this model, yet. However, it's likely that there's plenty of it to support some elevated stuff. Still too early to worry about any fine details. And after last week, optimism is lower than a snakes bum.

[Harry]

49 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just a little teaser from the UKV:

 

No MLCAPE to look at on this model, yet. However, it's likely that there's plenty of it to support some elevated stuff. Still too early to worry about any fine details. And after last week, optimism is lower than a snakes bum.

IF there any storms for the SE on Friday, literally 10:00 - 12:30 in the day is the worst possible time - and increasingly looking like a plausible evolution

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

IF there any storms for the SE on Friday, literally 10:00 - 12:30 in the day is the worst possible time - and increasingly looking like a plausible evolution

Beggars can't be choosers I guess. 

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

IF there any storms for the SE on Friday, literally 10:00 - 12:30 in the day is the worst possible time - and increasingly looking like a plausible evolution

Still 3 days away it will more than likely be a Kent clipper by then! 

[Marcus_surfer]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Just a little teaser from the UKV:

 

No MLCAPE to look at on this model, yet. However, it's likely that there's plenty of it to support some elevated stuff. Still too early to worry about any fine details. And after last week, optimism is lower than a snakes bum.

I'll bank that chart. Hopefully west is best chance for storms this week

[Harry]

37 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Beggars can't be choosers I guess. 

Too true

37 minutes ago, TomW said:

Still 3 days away it will more than likely be a Kent clipper by then! 

Thats the hope I have

[Superstormuk]

40 minutes ago, Harry said:

IF there any storms for the SE on Friday, literally 10:00 - 12:30 in the day is the worst possible time - and increasingly looking like a plausible evolution

Timings like that don't give me much hope for anything more than just 'thundery showers'. But again, it's still too early to take this as gospel, there's still plenty of room for change. 

[oliverek7]

Latest ECM looking more interesting. Showing most of the country sweeped with storms from w/sw to e/ne. Would love it if it happened at night though (if it does happen at all - bit of pessimism just in case) I’m itching for a lovely night time electrical storm! 

Edited June 22, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[poseidon]

Some pics of last Wednesday's storms, taken locally..

          

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Attention class:

Where E = MC ^2

ECM plume event = North Sea MCS

[ChannelThunder]

Latest GFS back on track for some night time fireworks, but looking at it, I wouldn't be going to bed until 6am...

[oliverek7]

Latest ECM run looking even better than the last. Been very consistent with this thundery plume coming up from the south on Thursday/Friday so far. At the moment most of the action seems to take place during the day. I would happily wait till the evening to get a proper light show though! Kind of hoping it arrives later if all goes this way. GFS looking more favourable for night time storms across the south west but with slow progress east/northeast later on in the day. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Tim Bland]

As others have said It looks likely storms will break out in the south west in the early hours of a Friday and push north east to reach central areas by late morning. I’m hoping it starts a bit earlier as a night show is better. At the moment it will be getting light (4am) even when it hits the south west.

This is from he ECM & GFS ....

[Iceaxecrampon]

14 hours ago, The PIT said:

The forecasting has changed quite a bit each run so far so could all disappear or get even better in the next few days

This.

If ever a post sums up the weather  - all four seasons - this forum and everthing totally associated with it.

Is it.

   

[Guest]

Timing is everything, as well know good storms through the morning period are unusual so either need to speed up the cold front moving east so it comes through Thursday evening, also would allow it to probably be a little sharper and be able to tap into more energy (however for many this could remove the warmth much quicker) or delay through to Friday evening to give another hot day for many, the Friday morning option is the poorest outcome I would think crrently. Arpege really wasn't onboard with anything particularly exciting this morning, will be interesting what Arome makes of the situation. Still more runs needs, we'll probably still be guessing at what'll happen about 9pm on Thursday....

[Andy Bown]

I don’t agree re Friday morning possibly being a bad outcome.

This Friday should have been Glastonbury Friday and by coincidence a cold front moved across on the Friday of Glastonbury in 2005 giving numerous severe storms, including the famous shot of the pyramid stage being struck by lightning.

At that time I lived in Westbury and remember we had at least 8 separate storms between 04.00-13.00!

I do agree that it’s better at night for viewing lightning when the storms are not over your location, I said the same last Tuesday afternoon.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I don’t agree re Friday morning possibly being a bad outcome.

This Friday should have been Glastonbury Friday and by coincidence a cold front moved across on the Friday of Glastonbury in 2005 giving numerous severe storms, including the famous shot of the pyramid stage being struck by lightning.

At that time I lived in Westbury and remember we had at least 8 separate storms between 04.00-13.00!

I do agree that it’s better at night for viewing lightning when the storms are not over your location, I said the same last Tuesday afternoon.

What a day of storms that was! Shortly followed by the legendary 28th.

[shogan83]

Man I remember that Glastonbury 05 event , fresh out of Uni working in a factory too clear debts etc but could listen too radio all day.  Remember Jo Wiley was about too go live from the festival when power cut and she had too occasionally phone in with updates whilst they put emergency power on.  Sounded an awesome storm !!

[ChannelThunder]

The predicted eastward shift has kicked in on GFS 6z!

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The predicted eastward shift has kicked in on GFS 6z!

I would have rather preferred the eastward shift taking place tomorrow 

Let's hope it stays that way...

[matt111]

If it doesn’t continue the eastward shift then it wouldn’t be the worst outcome, of course it’s almost inevitable it will as that’s what always happens  

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

If it doesn’t continue the eastward shift then it wouldn’t be the worst outcome, of course it’s almost inevitable it will as that’s what always happens  

At least the Atlantic isn't shown to be progressive until at least Friday night, so I've got faith it won't get shunted over to being a Kent clipper, but it's always a possibility of course!