Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Weather-history]

 

[Harry]

Love that thunder map. Absolutely true for my location! Albeit I didn’t have one storm move overhead (excluding Wednesday where I suppose technically the rain very much did come overhead but all the lightning stayed to the south) I did indeed have three thunder days. Impressive. Your handy work @staplehurst?

Edited June 21, 2020 by Harry

[TropicThunder]

A bit late but some video I got whilst out chasing on Tuesday;

 

[staplehurst]

35 minutes ago, Harry said:

Love that thunder map. Absolutely true for my location! Albeit I didn’t have one storm move overhead (excluding Wednesday where I suppose technically the rain very much did come overhead but all the lightning stayed to the south) I did indeed have three thunder days. Impressive. Your handy work @staplehurst?

Aye! Was tricky to know what search radius to set around a location, as your ability to hear thunder varies on many things (background noise, local topography, during the day or night etc) but 10km seems to work relatively well... 

[Harry]

21 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Aye! Was tricky to know what search radius to set around a location, as your ability to hear thunder varies on many things (background noise, local topography, during the day or night etc) but 10km seems to work relatively well... 

I can’t speak for anyone else, but it certainly gives an accurate picture from my location

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 21 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 22 Jun 2020

ISSUED 08:30 UTC Sun 21 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough axis will move northeastwards across Britain and Ireland on Sunday, while extending. At the surface, cloud and rain associated with a frontal system will gradually clear Scotland and eastern England, followed quite widely by a showery airmass as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Numerous showers are expected to develop through the day, initially across Ireland but extending to much of Scotland, with a few also likely scattered across England and Wales. Showers will at times become organised into distinct lines where local topography aids convergence, such as peninsular and estuary convergence parallel to the southwesterly flow. Showers may become organised into a more active cluster across Ireland from late morning, spreading into Scotland during the afternoon.

Either way, given 400-700 J/kg CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated to sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, more especially within the several low-end SLGTs (25-30%) issued. Shear will tend to reduce across Scotland during the afternoon, while 20-40kts will persist across northern and eastern England - however, this will be accompanied by a notable mid-level cap which will generally restrict convective depth and perhaps limit the depth of convection to below the stronger flow aloft, casting some uncertainty as to whether much lightning will actually occur here, despite ample CAPE. Hail is likely in some of the showers, perhaps locally 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. Showers will gradually fade through the evening hours, as diurnal heating subsides and the upper trough exits to the North Sea.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-21

[Ice Day]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Proof, if proof were needed, that Paul Sherman's description of the COS/TOD for Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk is indeed true! 

[ChannelThunder]

Some models showing a thundery breakdown Thurs night or Fri morning - enjoying GFS' version of events 

[Mapantz]

24 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Some models showing a thundery breakdown Thurs night or Fri morning - enjoying GFS' version of events 

I spy with my little eye, something beginning with KC..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I spy with my little eye, something beginning with KC..

& The Sunshine Band?

[Harry]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I spy with my little eye, something beginning with KC..

It’ll be the first KC of the year if it comes off model reliability doesn’t appear to have improved much yet so let’s take it as it comes. Breakdown, whatever that looks like, seems likely to happen sometime between Friday morning and Sunday - so a HUGE margin for error in the models still. 

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, staplehurst said:

Aye! Was tricky to know what search radius to set around a location, as your ability to hear thunder varies on many things (background noise, local topography, during the day or night etc) but 10km seems to work relatively well... 

Could it also depend on the type of lightning leading to the thunder? 
 

Tuesday afternoon I could hear nonstop thunder for well over half an hour to my SW then W which was probably almost all from inner cloud lightning. It was a constant noise at the same level. Then Wednesday evening a CG bolt a few miles away was followed by a boom then deep long rumble which presumably would have been audible a longer distance away.

[ChannelThunder]

Being a slow Sunday morning after a lay-in, it took me a while to figure out you mean't 'Kent Clipper' there 

[ChannelThunder]

Looks even better on 6z GFS....

Storms come to the south-west and eventually central south on Thus evening/night, so plenty of opportunity for it to be corrected over to a KC!

[AMeltedFlake]

Perfect example of a KC on the UKV +117

[Zak M]

And welcome back to another episode of 'Charts that look awesome but will never verify'... 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Zak M

[matt111]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

And welcome back to another episode of 'Charts that look awesome but will never verify'... 

I’ll order that please. 

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Perfect example of a KC on the UKV +117

Love a good Kent Clipper. I know quite literally no one else will agree. 

[ChannelThunder]

37 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Love a good Kent Clipper. I know quite literally no one else will agree. 

They're fine if you've got time and notice to drive to them! Capel-le-Ferne has to be the best storm viewing spot in the country for them 

[Harry]

49 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Love a good Kent Clipper. I know quite literally no one else will agree. 

I agree if I can get to the coast to enjoy them, usually the Dymchurch area. However given COVID that’ll be more difficult this year

Edited June 21, 2020 by Harry

[Rich_T]

Just out of nowhere, a crash of thunder

[kev f]

Just now, Rich_T said:

Just out of nowhere, a crash of thunder

Yep had that here too

[Allseasons-Si]

There is no way that i am chasing today,these showers are moving like they have been on plutonium

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is no way that i am chasing today,these showers are moving like they have been on plutonium

Not surprised if the breeze is anything like it is here

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

They're fine if you've got time and notice to drive to them! Capel-le-Ferne has to be the best storm viewing spot in the country for them 

1 hour ago, Harry said:

I agree if I can get to the coast to enjoy them, usually the Dymchurch area. However given COVID that’ll be more difficult this year

Only have to sit here and wait for the fireworks to start. Probably why I loved last year with Kent clippers galore.