Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[matty40s]

Seems to be a line of heavy showers being generated at the centre of the Low towards Birmingham.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It always seems to be the North that get all the epic plume storms in this country anyway. York supercell two years ago, 22nd August 2015 , 1st July 2015, 19th June 2005 (what a mad day that was), and July last year also. 

The rest of them normally end up being Kent Clippers or busts due to lower Dew points and drier air further South, despite higher temps, but not sufficient enough to overcome CIN. 

[Sweatyman]

13 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Seems to be a line of heavy showers being generated at the centre of the Low towards Birmingham.

Yes its Torrential rain!

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Seems to be a line of heavy showers being generated at the centre of the Low towards Birmingham.

In just 30mins

[oliverek7]

35 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It always seems to be the North that get all the epic plume storms in this country anyway. York supercell two years ago, 22nd August 2015 , 1st July 2015, 19th June 2005 (what a mad day that was), and July last year also. 

The rest of them normally end up being Kent Clippers or busts due to lower Dew points and drier air further South, despite higher temps, but not sufficient enough to overcome CIN. 

I beg to differ the S/SE has had some epic storms from plume events too. July 2014 was very active, 1st of July 2015 there was also an amazing thunderstorm overnight in London, so much lightning I remember that one well. Then we had June 2016, very thundery round here. End of May 2018 was incredible across the south and then even last year we had a countrywide thunderstorm event on 24th/25th of July when a big MCS went straight through the heart of the country which was almost the length of the south coast as it travelled north

Edited June 18, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

36 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I beg to differ the S/SE has had some epic storms from plume events too. July 2014 was very active, 1st of July 2015 there was also an amazing thunderstorm overnight in London, so much lightning I remember that one well. Then we had June 2016, very thundery round here. End of May 2018 was incredible across the south and then even last year we had a countrywide thunderstorm event on 24th/25th of July when a big MCS went straight through the heart of the country which was almost the length of the south coast as it travelled north

That 2015 storm - was watching it at Richmond Hill and then saw it pass NE over the back of Old Dear Park & Kew Gardens.

Not my best video technically speaking lol and the music was just a mistake really but skip to about halfway and look at the flickering lightning. No edits - it was totally unreal to watch, that MUST have been a supercell at that point, surely.

[Robbie Garrett]

51 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It always seems to be the North that get all the epic plume storms in this country anyway. York supercell two years ago, 22nd August 2015 , 1st July 2015, 19th June 2005 (what a mad day that was), and July last year also. 

The rest of them normally end up being Kent Clippers or busts due to lower Dew points and drier air further South, despite higher temps, but not sufficient enough to overcome CIN. 

36 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I beg to differ the S/SE has had some epic storms from plume events too. July 2014 was very active, 1st of July 2015 there was also an amazing thunderstorm overnight in London, so much lightning I remember that one well. Then we had June 2016, very thundery round here. End of May 2018 was incredible across the south and then even last year we had a countrywide thunderstorm event on 24th/25th of July when a big MCS went straight through the heart of the country which was almost the length of the south coast as it travelled north

Wasn't there a study done on this exact thing.  We haven't had anything down here like this for absolute years, early 2000s at least.

 

 

Does anyone have any weather charts for this day???

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I beg to differ the S/SE has had some epic storms from plume events too. July 2014 was very active, 1st of July 2015 there was also an amazing thunderstorm overnight in London, so much lightning I remember that one well. Then we had June 2016, very thundery round here. End of May 2018 was incredible across the south and then even last year we had a countrywide thunderstorm event on 24th/25th of July when a big MCS went straight through the heart of the country which was almost the length of the south coast as it travelled north

 

1 hour ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

I beg to differ the S/SE has had some epic storms from plume events too. July 2014 was very active, 1st of July 2015 there was also an amazing thunderstorm overnight in London, so much lightning I remember that one well. Then we had June 2016, very thundery round here. End of May 2018 was incredible across the south and then even last year we had a countrywide thunderstorm event on 24th/25th of July when a big MCS went straight through the heart of the country which was almost the length of the south coast as it travelled north

I’m more on about surface based beasts that form in the peak heating of a sweltering day. None of the above were supercells, whereas a few of them storms in the North definitely were. 1st July 2015 saw a supercell track over the Yorkshire dales, giving golfball hail, and then a remarkable scene of hail fog shortly after. 19th June 2005 was also a supercell that gave the village of Helmsley in the N York Moors historical flash flooding. York on 27/0718 also had the very large hail and amazing mesocyclone that a few on here captured. The south generally does better with overnight elevated plume destabilisation. 

19 June 2005 has an interesting write up! 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.599

Edited June 18, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Calayte]

21 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Wasn't there a study done on this exact thing.  We haven't had anything down here like this for absolute years, early 2000s at least.

 

 

Does anyone have any weather charts for this day???

 

Hope this helps

Edited June 18, 2020 by Calayte

[Zak M]

Some of my storm footage from yesterday

You can see rotation at 3:58 onwards

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Zak M

[Robbie Garrett]

1 hour ago, Calayte said:

 

Hope this helps

Can't for the love of life of me, why I couldn't find them on Wetterzentrale. (Y)

Amazing charts!

[oliverek7]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That 2015 storm - was watching it at Richmond Hill and then saw it pass NE over the back of Old Dear Park & Kew Gardens.

Not my best video technically speaking lol and the music was just a mistake really but skip to about halfway and look at the flickering lightning. No edits - it was totally unreal to watch, that MUST have been a supercell at that point, surely.

Yep that was something else. Had a friend round that night and he was sleeping in the other room, slept through the entire thing I was shocked. My eyes were glued to the window, the rain was biblical and even when I finally decided to go back to sleep as I couldn’t stay awake any longer I still couldn’t sleep because the flickering was so bright 

[Harry]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 

I’m more on about surface based beasts that form in the peak heating of a sweltering day. None of the above were supercells, whereas a few of them storms in the North definitely were. 1st July 2015 saw a supercell track over the Yorkshire dales, giving golfball hail, and then a remarkable scene of hail fog shortly after. 19th June 2005 was also a supercell that gave the village of Helmsley in the N York Moors historical flash flooding. York on 27/0718 also had the very large hail and amazing mesocyclone that a few on here captured. The south generally does better with overnight elevated plume destabilisation. 

19 June 2005 has an interesting write up! 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.599

Admittedly not surface based, but this was Kent in 2018. We’ve had some phenomenal plume imports in the past few years, but nothing vaguely close so far this year

[oliverek7]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Admittedly not surface based, but this was Kent in 2018. We’ve had some phenomenal plume imports in the past few years, but nothing vaguely close so far this year

Plenty of summer left to go! Plenty of time for plumes and imports I find that we get imports pretty much every year at some point so here’s hoping that we follow the same trend this year and hope I didn’t just jinx something  

Edited June 18, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Chris Lea-Alex]

26 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Plenty of summer left to go! Plenty of time for plumes and imports I find that we get imports pretty much every year at some point so here’s hoping that we follow the same trend this year and hope I didn’t just jinx something  

Stop with positivity!  But you're right though.  I'm less nervous than I would be if it was 18th July right now

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

54 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Plenty of summer left to go! Plenty of time for plumes and imports I find that we get imports pretty much every year at some point so here’s hoping that we follow the same trend this year and hope I didn’t just jinx something  

Yeah but it’s usually only one or two. If either of those are b***s then we are losing significant %ge of our yearly storm quota. It’s a lot of pressure on a very small window of summer that’s already here ?

[Zak M]

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-19

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Wasn't there a study done on this exact thing.  We haven't had anything down here like this for absolute years, early 2000s at least.

 

 

Does anyone have any weather charts for this day???

What are you talking about, have you forgot about May 2018? Beastly late May period.... sure recent years haven’t been good but there’s been some real crackers in last decade in London / SE.

 

[Chris.R]

A small window of opportunity of something interesting around midday here before wins veer onshore and kill the risk. Imagine risk will still continue inland all afternoon.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:44 UTC Fri 19 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted upper trough, having lingered close to Britain and Ireland through most of this week, will finally relax away to the north on Friday, marking an end to this very thundery spell of weather. At the surface, a frontal zone will provide thick cloud and outbreaks of rain across Ireland, Wales, SW England and into parts of the Midlands on Friday morning, lifting gradually northwards while decaying. Ahead of this, a moist low-level airmass will reside across northern England characterised by dewpoints of 12-14C, and this too will also migrate northwards into southern Scotland through the day. Provided low cloud and hill fog can thin and break to allow some modest surface heating, this could yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE in an environment with 10-20kts deep layer shear. Forecast profiles suggest a warm bulge in the 500-650mb layer may restrict the depth of convection, at least initially, but a combination of orographic forcing, some low-level convergence and surface temperatures of 16-18C should be able to pass this layer, aided also by a PVA lobe drifting north around the base of the upper trough. CAPE will be rather skinny, but nonetheless a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible from the most intense cells. Some element of shower training may occur over Argyll and perhaps Ayshire, and here there is a risk of localised surface water flooding late in the day. A few funnel clouds may also be possible.

Some uncertainty as to how quickly showers may develop, and therefore how far south to include the SLGT (earlier initiation will result in a higher chance of lightning across southern parts of northern England, for example, before the focus shifts north through the afternoon and evening). Activity will gradually weaken through the evening hours. Elsewhere, a few shallow showers will be possible over the Republic of Ireland and central/southern England, but with ELTs at -10C or warmer the risk of lightning is considered very low (5-10%, but perhaps 15-20% over Lincolnshire and Norfolk). Overnight, a strip of PVA will drift northeastwards across central and southern Britain, and here there may be a few elevated showers during the early hours of Saturday, but again the risk of lightning is considered very low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-19

[chapmanslade]

10 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah but it’s usually only one or two. If either of those are b***s then we are losing significant %ge of our yearly storm quota. It’s a lot of pressure on a very small window of summer that’s already here ?

There are only ever 2 or 3 MCS type events over England every year. 

Regarding plume events - it depends how many plumes you get, and some years there are very few here compared to France where they seem to be once a week ! There is no difference between now and the 'good old days' just memory playing tricks. Also don't get confused over what a 'supercell' is - it isn't just a storm that gets big or nasty. The post above you were talking about was an MCS. Lots of info pinned at the top of the thread on storm types.

Post Page

STRATUSDECK.CO.UK

 

[beatpete]

19 hours ago, Ryukai said:

This happened on the 13th (5 days ago) if whoever posted this is claiming to have taken the footage themselves yesterday! then they have most likely stolen the footage from someone else.

They were not claiming to have taken the footage themselves yesterday, they were just sharing the original video ... maybe just confused with the date...I had not seen it here and though it might be of interest to some...please don't jump to conclusions..

Edited June 19, 2020 by beatpete

[Rhys Moore]

Incredible cloud formations from storms across S Wales and over the Bristol channel on Tuesday/Wednesday! I have compiled the following timelapse footage:

I was wondering if anyone could help analyse the storm structures and their causes?

I can identify (within the video) various formations like possibly a very low level funnel cloud; which i'm supposing is related to updraft, wind convergence and shear processes? Also a 'Whales Mouth' seems to go over ahead and a clear spot is apparent; maybe caused by a rear flank downdraft?

 

Edited June 19, 2020 by Paul
Embedded video

[Robbie Garrett]

8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

What are you talking about, have you forgot about May 2018? Beastly late May period.... sure recent years haven’t been good but there’s been some real crackers in last decade in London / SE.

 

Yes that was a good setup, coming in via Kent. All home grown as far as I remember.   But @Harry will tell you, what we've seen down this way is nothing compared to the 90s and very early 00s.  I honestly don't get why we don't get those setups anymore, but probably something to do with the way the Azores and Atlantic currently setup?

But yeah we've had a few crackers. 

[Harry]

32 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Yes that was a good setup, coming in via Kent. All home grown as far as I remember.   But @Harry will tell you, what we've seen down this way is nothing compared to the 90s and very early 00s.  I honestly don't get why we don't get those setups anymore, but probably something to do with the way the Azores and Atlantic currently setup?

But yeah we've had a few crackers. 

In terms of lightning the storms these days I’d say are (on average) much more active than in the 90’s early 00s. But, the plume storms we had back then had much heavier rain and MUCH louder, ear splitting and ground shaking thunder (usually as a result of having a much higher amount of CGs). Have no idea why (or even if my recollection is strictly true) but that’s definitely how I remember them anyway