Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Mesoscale]

53 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Having once sat under 9000 Cape in Kansas with not a cloud in sight those charts mean zip all Oliver without a trigger. That Cape builds due to the heat and some mid thirties days. Lets hope for the North West that something fires them off

We all know what can happen with cape that high though, May 3rd 1999 comes to mind. 

[Hodgheg]

39 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

We all know what can happen with cape that high though, May 3rd 1999 comes to mind. 

Look up the Jarrell event, absolutely fascinating on a day of high cape and little apparent shear. 
 

In really cape showing that far in the future always gets watered down anyway. Even when it is good it’s often capped. So many pieces of the puzzle have to fit together in this country to get anything decent! 

Edited June 18, 2020 by John90
Spelling mistake

[Mesoscale]

10 minutes ago, John90 said:

Look up the Jarred event, absolutely fascinating on a day of high cape and little apparent shear. 
 

In really cape showing that far in the future always gets watered down anyway. Even when it is good it’s often capped. So many pieces of the puzzle have to fit together in this country to get anything decent! 

Edit: wrong tornado event. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Mesoscale

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Edit: wrong tornado event. 

Jarrell, 1997 I think

[PurpleLED]

gfs 12z, yes pls 

 

im sure it will change by the next run but i can hope.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A heavy shower over the A3

[Hodgheg]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A heavy shower over the A3

Damn it. I was hoping for a radar watching free evening. This hobby is not healthy 

[Ryukai]

42 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Pleasant evening sunshine in the clearance to be fair 

Do you want some of our grey drizzly murk? We got plenty up here if you want some.   More like early Winter up here than summer  

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ryukai

[The PIT]

18 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:

gfs 12z, yes pls 

 

im sure it will change by the next run but i can hope.

Ten days away so forget it to far away and there needs to be a trigger as well.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, John90 said:

Damn it. I was hoping for a radar watching free evening. This hobby is not healthy 

If you like the odd shower then this evening will be the stormchasing equivalent of Star Wars

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Ten days away so forget it to far away and there needs to be a trigger as well.

The heat builds in just five days>,and most if not all models are gunning for a warm/hot spell next week which could in turn lead to a thundery spell.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The heat builds in just five days>,and most if not all models are gunning for a warm/hot spell next week which could in turn lead to a thundery spell.

Those words used to excite me, but a thundery spell 150 miles away is no good. Heat is very welcome however, and looks like the south is gonna be up near the 30s

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Those words used to excite me, but a thundery spell 150 miles away is no good. Heat is very welcome however, and looks like the south is gonna be up near the 30s

 

LOL

i didn't want to use the H word ha! ha!

[Frosty hollows]

29 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Do you want some of our grey drizzly murk? We got plenty up here if you want some.   More like early Winter up here than summer  

No thanks. We've just got rid of 18 hours of rain

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

LOL

i didn't want to use the H word ha! ha!

Heat?

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Heat?

Erm!!!,no

Carol kirkland i think her name was that said it and we got peanuts

[staplehurst]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Erm!!!,no

Carol kirkland i think her name was that said it and we got peanuts

Haha I know what you mean. Whenever it gets mentioned you know there's a distinct possibility of a bust! 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Haha I know what you mean. Whenever it gets mentioned you know there's a distinct possibility of a bust! 

Is she still presenting the weather,i cannot remember?

[Vickie White]

Currently here in Witham Essex its 20c, dew point 12, sunny with a few clouds. Is the COS gonna be quiet here again tonight or are we gonna get a few rumbles?

[staplehurst]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is she still presenting the weather,i cannot remember?

Of course!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Vickie White said:

Currently here in Witham Essex its 20c, dew point 12, sunny with a few clouds. Is the COS gonna be quiet here again tonight or are we gonna get a few rumbles?

What is COS?

center of something?

Edited June 18, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Paul Sherman]

7 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Haha I know what you mean. Whenever it gets mentioned you know there's a distinct possibility of a bust! 

Quite a big one at that

[Vickie White]

@Flash bang flash bang etc COS is cone of silence. Where we seem to miss all the storms. Feeling humid here as well. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is everyone wearing big coats or something. Feels cool and breezy here. About as thundery as an onion

[ChannelThunder]

6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is everyone wearing big coats or something. Feels cool and breezy here. About as thundery as an onion

Looks that way too, literally the least thundery sort of cumulus you could imagine, the ones that are big but rough, light and airy with absolutely no definition