Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[Mesoscale]

35 minutes ago, John90 said:

So what do we reckon southeast folk? Suns out now and feeling humid again. We’ve got the whole afternoon and evening to go. 

I do not think storms will intiate for the Southeast today, looking at the estofex forecast. I would be pleased to be proven wrong. 

[matt111]

It actually feels quite humid here. Unfortunately nothing much else going on and there’s no hint of anything changing either. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

well well well, im quite hopeful ive been watching this system in france slowly push forward and it has been developing as its got closer and closer to the coast and is curving just well enough to make a direct hit 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Still no access to the thunderstorm discussion thread on UKWW (can get the reports one fine). Also can’t log in. Anyone else having this issue?

 

Regarding next week: I really don’t believe anything now regarding our area until the day, every single time it’s watered down to almost nothing. Was hoping for a severe element to our lot today and now we’ll be lucky to get a sferic.

Sorry for the pessimism but it’s well-placed, we’ve lost out on yet another week of activity, so I’m not holding out for next week or the week after that.

Saw that the temperatures are going up so I guess that’s one good sign which at least meant we won’t just have cloud and drizzle.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

well well well, im quite hopeful ive been watching this system in france slowly push forward and it has been developing as its got closer and closer to the coast and is curving just well enough to make a direct hit 

I'm not sure, the upper air was going north east earlier, not sure if its changed back to North West, its probably surface based, but I guess we'll see later. 

[Azazel]

11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Still no access to the thunderstorm discussion thread on UKWW (can get the reports one fine). Also can’t log in. Anyone else having this issue?

 

Regarding next week: I really don’t believe anything now regarding our area until the day, every single time it’s watered down to almost nothing. Was hoping for a severe element to our lot today and now we’ll be lucky to get a sferic.

Sorry for the pessimism but it’s well-placed, we’ve lost out on yet another week of activity, so I’m not holding out for next week or the week after that.

Saw that the temperatures are going up so I guess that’s one good sign which at least meant we won’t just have cloud and drizzle.

I haven’t been able to log into UKWW since about 2012 and it won’t let me reset my password so I gave up. 

[ChannelThunder]

14 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

well well well, im quite hopeful ive been watching this system in france slowly push forward and it has been developing as its got closer and closer to the coast and is curving just well enough to make a direct hit 

There's only one place they're going, and that's for a bath and decay in the North Sea!

Radar loop shows that's where they're heading: https://www.windy.com/-Weather-radar-radar?radar,2020-06-24-18,51.265,0.978,7

 

[toggerob]

First sign of something beginning to form around Chelmsford, for those in the SE looking for some storm-action today.

[Justin1705]

Right so atm it’s a bust for the SE although it’s been really this afternoon. The surface low is pivoting now as we speak which could help the SE lots of cruddy convection but not amounting to much at all. I think the Dynamic precip earlier was more extensive than original forecast therefore hindering any activity this evening. Although it’s still a little early to bring the word bust out. Might get a heavy downpour but don’t think much more will happen today. Anyway bring the sizzling weather next week, heat that channel up and bring us some imports, (the real storms ) 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

welp been watching the france cells and here is the predicted paths

[ChannelThunder]

4 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

welp been watching the france cells and here is the predicted paths

Radar disagrees, the predicted paths are all like this: /

 

 

[oliverek7]

8 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Right so atm it’s a bust for the SE although it’s been really this afternoon. The surface low is pivoting now as we speak which could help the SE lots of cruddy convection but not amounting to much at all. I think the Dynamic precip earlier was more extensive than original forecast therefore hindering any activity this evening. Although it’s still a little early to bring the word bust out. Might get a heavy downpour but don’t think much more will happen today. Anyway bring the sizzling weather next week, heat that channel up and bring us some imports, (the real storms ) 

I certainly agree. Would love some France imports. But then again, the phrase ‘Kent Clipper’ springs to mind

Edited June 18, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[oliverek7]

Lol what is ECM on for next Saturday. Those are biblical amounts of CAPE. Typical case at such long range as we all know

[Paul Sherman]

Having once sat under 9000 Cape in Kansas with not a cloud in sight those charts mean zip all Oliver without a trigger. That Cape builds due to the heat and some mid thirties days. Lets hope for the North West that something fires them off

[Mapantz]

15 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

welp been watching the france cells and here is the predicted paths

700hPa wind vectors:

 

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Having once sat under 9000 Cape in Kansas with not a cloud in sight those charts mean zip all Oliver without a trigger. That Cape builds due to the heat and some mid thirties days. Lets hope for the North West that something fires them off

This is why shortwaves are my favourite thing - they're like the baker that brings all the ingredients together into a tasty cake

[Justin1705]

21 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

welp been watching the france cells and here is the predicted paths

Mitch I don’t think that’s the case, I wish so, but the channel is too cold and will kill of any sferics and probably will just be a cumulus cloud if anything by the time it arrives, however I believe they’re tracking NE

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Mitch I don’t think that’s the case, I wish so, but the channel is too cold and will kill of any sferics and probably will just be a cumulus cloud if anything by the time it arrives, however I believe they’re tracking NE

Bust. Pure and simple. This is the SE we are talking about

[Justin1705]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Bust. Pure and simple. This is the SE we are talking about

Yeah you know, hopefully we get a plume in a few weeks, looks like the convective chat is gonna go really quiet 

[Ben Sainsbury]

36 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

welp been watching the france cells and here is the predicted paths

Very hopeful

[The PIT]

Old Helen Willetts going on about Thunderstorms and heavy downpours forming in the clearance and acting as they are actually happening in the afternoon.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Old Helen Willetts going on about Thunderstorms and heavy downpours forming in the clearance and acting as they are actually happening in the afternoon.

I know I was somewhat surprised, although having said that, it is what the MetO have been expecting as of 10:30 this morning. She didn’t labour it too hard to be fair, which was difficult to do in any event given the graphics behind her indicated nothing of the sort. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Old Helen Willetts going on about Thunderstorms and heavy downpours forming in the clearance and acting as they are actually happening in the afternoon.

Afternoon has been and gone  

[Hodgheg]

Might get an odd fart before sunset but can’t see us getting anything now. 

[Frosty hollows]

Pleasant evening sunshine in the clearance to be fair