Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards

[MP-R]

Currently under a bit of red on the radar within the area of rain and it’s really coming down. Rather disappointed at how extensive the front is though.

[Mark wheeler]

Looks like squall lines setting up in the main rain band .

[Petorious]

Yes also thought a rather large squall line, some crazy wind direction down along the M4 corridor!

[Harry]

24 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really good radar if you run the loop atm - Places the Low somewhere over North London. Everything in the Northern Home counties moving east to west yet a few miles south of the low west to east. 

Yes it’s really quite weird - low level clouds and wind clearly coming in from the S or SW whereas the satellite is indicating the upper level winds and cloud motion is from the E. 

Could make for some interesting developments if indeed the clearing that seems evident over southern and eastern most areas becomes more extensive - as it is, cloudy with steady rain at the moment.

[staplehurst]

27 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Just for 'lols' as they say, remember this from Tuesday?

I said at the time, I'd be as shocked as Chris in that pic if his forecast came off like that. 

I remember thinking when that came out on Tuesday that they're focussing on the wrong day - Tuesday and Wednesday were the best potential, and more widely. Yes there was potential today, but primarily in a more restricted zone close to the low centre where convergence developed. 

Judging by the surface obs, the low centre is somewhere over my head! In the south Norfolk / north Suffolk area. Let's just hope skies can clear smartly through the afternoon, but I have low expectations today. Clear convergence in the wind obs along M4 corridor right now...

With regards to the Met Office warning, I suspect it's one of those situations where ordinarily they may not have issued a warning today on the day given how things look right now, but since it's been out for a couple of days and we might still see a handful of heavy showers this afternoon then they've just kept it for continuity sake. Heavy rain is still expected anyway, so I suspect they're using an element of this warning to cater for that too (such as over south Wales with embedded convective rainfall evident)

Edited June 18, 2020 by staplehurst

[Allezwasps.]

Hard to see anything sparking here in East Berks today , grey sky , rain showers and a much cooler feel .... 

[Frosty hollows]

Has a low developed across CS England? Showers seem to be moving in all directions around me

[oliverek7]

16 minutes ago, Harry said:

Yes it’s really quite weird - low level clouds and wind clearly coming in from the S or SW whereas the satellite is indicating the upper level winds and cloud motion is from the E. 

Could make for some interesting developments if indeed the clearing that seems evident over southern and eastern most areas becomes more extensive - as it is, cloudy with steady rain at the moment.

Can see the cloud just starting to clear in the far southeast around Dover now so I reckon another hour or two and we should hopefully see the sun come out

Edited June 18, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Can see the cloud just starting to clear in the far southeast around Dover now so I reckon another hour or two and we should hopefully see the sun come out

That’s what I’m anticipating too @Oliver Wyndham-lewis - looks as if the clearing should arrive by around 12:30-13:00.

[ChannelThunder]

21 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I remember thinking when that came out on Tuesday that they're focussing on the wrong day - Tuesday and Wednesday were the best potential, and more widely. Yes there was potential today, but primarily in a more restricted zone close to the low centre where convergence developed. 

Judging by the surface obs, the low centre is somewhere over my head! In the south Norfolk / north Suffolk area. Let's just hope skies can clear smartly through the afternoon, but I have low expectations today. Clear convergence in the wind obs along M4 corridor right now...

With regards to the Met Office warning, I suspect it's one of those situations where ordinarily they may not have issued a warning today on the day given how things look right now, but since it's been out for a couple of days and we might still see a handful of heavy showers this afternoon then they've just kept it for continuity sake. Heavy rain is still expected anyway, so I suspect they're using an element of this warning to cater for that too (such as over south Wales with embedded convective rainfall evident)

 

I'm not too gutted, despite largely missing out on the storms this week. It's really good to see everything getting a good, consistent watering at last today, so long may the bursts of rain last! Plus, I'm working from home, so the less thundery activity, the more productive I am (he says, while once again posting here!).

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

That’s what I’m anticipating too @Oliver Wyndham-lewis - looks as if the clearing should arrive by around 12:30-13:00.

does that mean we finally get thunderstorms!? yayyyy haha

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

does that mean we finally get thunderstorms!? yayyyy haha

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless

Edit - Oracle now going for 29-31C next week - toasty!! 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Harry

[staplehurst]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

 

I'm not too gutted, despite largely missing out on the storms this week. It's really good to see everything getting a good, consistent watering at last today, so long may the bursts of rain last! Plus, I'm working from home, so the less thundery activity, the more productive I am (he says, while once again posting here!).

haha yes same here! Thundery setups result in very little productivity here too!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Just for 'lols' as they say, remember this from Tuesday?

I said at the time, I'd be as shocked as Chris in that pic if his forecast came off like that. 

Just for the record cumulus is going west to east here, and the stuff from the channel north east, but for lower wind directions, I think that is actually right. Its just there is no storm energy. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by alexisj9

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless

id be happy with one rumble of thunder at this point

[oliverek7]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Not by any means, but some surface heating from a strong sun won’t do any harm at all. Models are indicating CAPE build up but this is largely going to be dependant on getting some heating going realistically - see convectiveweather.co.uk forecast. As Dan says, it’s a lower risk today anyway but a risk is there nonetheless

If nothing materialises, all eyes on next week with some real heat possible. Hopefully that’ll end with a bang 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

soooo am i tripping or is something not correct here 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

soooo am i tripping or is something not correct here 

LOL I thought it was Wednesday this morning too. 

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

If nothing materialises, all eyes on next week with some real heat possible. Hopefully that’ll end with a bang 

I'm off work next week, so it'd better do! Gagging for a late night storm chase, a batch of lightning captures on my DSLR and no work to delay me editing them the next day.

*switches dreaming mode back off*

[Cornishdave]

Although we largely missed out on overhead storms here in Exeter I have to say I’m a little disappointed by the negativity on the page. There’s been some fantastic cloudscapes, storm clouds and structures we rarely see in this country, I’ve seen so many “it missed me by 3 miles” and I’m thinking I’d be in my car, on a bike, even on foot if there’s a chance that close? I photographed storms 20 miles from me whilst sat in the sun having a beer listening to distant thunder which was amazing. It’s been great to see so many people getting storms or being able to go out in a car and get close to one if it isn’t in your actual back garden. Anyway hope there’s a chance today but we are under grey skies and light rain here currently and it doesn’t look to be clearing anytime soon, I’d love someone to tell me otherwise though. Cheers everyone, any chance of someone posting up the charts for next week potential?

[Harry]

MetO have updated the warning text associated with today’s storm risk (as of about an hour ago). Sorry if anyone has shared this already. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

It's absolutely bucketing down outside. I checked the radar and it looks like I have a few strong cells training over me, so that's exciting! Regarding this afternoon's T-Storm potential, I actually wouldn't mind getting nothing if it continues like this.

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Cornishdave said:

I have to say I’m a little disappointed by the negativity on the page. There’s been some fantastic cloudscapes, storm clouds and structures we rarely see in this country

To be fair, there has been none of that here this past week, so a little negativity is justified.

[ChannelThunder]

22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just for the record cumulus is going west here, and the stuff from the channel north east, but for lower wind directions, I think that is actually right. Its just there is no storm energy. 

It's partly right as the general set-up is there, like Dan was saying. With Chris Fawkes' wording along with the thunderstorm graphics, it seems to be have been over-exaggerated though. Still, the day is still young, and something awesome might kick off and prove Chris right, who knows!? 

[weathertoski]

Absolutely hammering it down here