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Storms and convective discussion - 18th June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

Rain looks to move away from here by 10/11 at the latest so there'll be plenty of time for cloud to hopefully break & spawn some showers.

It has been the wettest period here since March with 23.36mm of rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Witham, Essex
  • Location: Witham, Essex

Can someone tell me where the COS is please, I have a feeling I must live right in the middle of it as everything this week has passed to the east and west of me. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
1 minute ago, Vickie White said:

Can someone tell me where the COS is please, I have a feeling I must live right in the middle of it as everything this week has passed to the east and west of me. Thanks.

Triangle around Leigh-on-Sea I'd suppose. Paul will be able to confirm the specifics. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
9 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

OMG! ECMWF next week... Yes please!

Oooh that looks good. If that low pushes further east. If it even forms at all that is

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Vickie White said:

Can someone tell me where the COS is please, I have a feeling I must live right in the middle of it as everything this week has passed to the east and west of me. Thanks.

It's the Cone of Silence, Vickie...one of those places where other thunderstorms cannot reach!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Convective, Snow
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands

So heres a few shots of the lightning from yesterday...

image.png

Screenshot_20200618-090205_Video Player.jpg

Screenshot_20200618-090155_Video Player.jpg

Annoying that its slightly out of frame but oh well.

Edited by Calayte
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Already the rain is beginning to clear East Anglia. Hopefully by late morning the sun will start to break through and by lunchtime we will see the first strikes appear. ⚡

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 18 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 19 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Thu 18 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low over the English Channel will lift gradually northwards through Thursday, with a slack surface low also likely to be present across central/southern Britain. A wrap around occlusion will provide thick cloud and outbreaks of rain across much of England and Wales, gradually shifting westwards into Ireland, northern England and later southern Scotland. In doing so, increasing amounts of insolation may likely to develop across south and southeast England, the surface heating of a moist-level airmass with cool air aloft yielding 200-500 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon. Low-level convergence developing across southern coastal counties of England, will provide the primary trigger for a few scattered showers through the day, the convergence line tending to extend into East Anglia as it lifts and pivots more SW-NE with time during the afternoon and early evening hours.

There is some considerable uncertainty as to the extent of shower/lightning activity, depending on how much cloud shield (and precipitation) lingers from the morning rain. Forecast profiles also exhibit rather skinny CAPE, and this may limit both the depth of convection and the potential for lightning - and so, even if showers do develop, lightning could be rather isolated. The greatest risk of lightning is generally considered London and the Home Counties, but even here there may not be much activity. A low-end SLGT (25-30%) has been issued, but the risk of lightning is considered much lower than during previous days.

If heavy showers can develop, then slow storm motion and elements of shower-training in places could bring the risk of localised surface water flooding, although this in general looks less of a risk compared with previous days. Low-level vorticity along convergence zones may be ingested into the updraft of showers to generate a few funnel clouds or weak tornado. Showers and will fade through the evening hours as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences.

Convergence-driven showers may also develop in parts of Ireland on Thursday afternoon ahead of the main area of rain arriving from the east, but forecast profiles look quite saturated with warming aloft, which will overall restrict both instability and depth of convection - and so the risk of lightning here is considered below SLGT threshold. Other pockets of embedded convection are possible in south Wales and southern England within the broad area of rain, and while the odd isolated lightning strike may be possible the risk is not considered particularly high.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-18

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
27 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And, what with the onshore breeze being knocked on the head, at last, some of us over here in the ToD might be in with a shout, later this afternoon? The CoS looks like it could be in the firing line...Very unusual!:yahoo:

No chance mate

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, Vickie White said:

@General Cluster So it's not confined to an area that never gets storms. Sorry newbie on here and trying to get my head round things. 

 

It's more a 'running joke' than an actual place/phenomenon, Vickie -- like the Triangle of Doom, over here in EA, it was invented as a way of making light of our frustration, at missing out. At least that's what I think it is!:oldgrin:

Welcome to Net-Weather by-the-way!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
9 minutes ago, Vickie White said:

@General Cluster So it's not confined to an area that never gets storms. Sorry newbie on here and trying to get my head round things. 

 

Hi Vickie

Yh its just a cute little name for an area that has not had a Cg strike in 11 months and it takes an incredible risk to break it. It generally runs from extreme SE Essex and the NE Kent coast through Chelmsford upto east of Colchester. It intersects the Triangle of Doom which runs from Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth through Norwich and down through to Chelmsford so yes you are firmly in it.

Even when a Slight risk is issued the chances of it being broken are little to slim but its poking a bit of fun at an area that is devoid of storms in most set-ups in the Uk

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

So, it's one of those days where we need a good break in the cloud, as you guys have mentioned and Dan too.

I'll be keeping an eye on my go-to satellite for sure: 

socialshare3.jpg
WWW.WINDY.COM

Wind map and weather forecast

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

Living in the triangle of doom is not nice for a weather enthusiast, hopefully today changes that.

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

I'm calling the Met Office out on their thunderstorm weather warning.  Drizzle, yes. Rain, yes, showers, yes.  Storms? Hmmmmmm.     Dan's got it right.

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

Out of interest would the substantial rainfall overnight in my area increase Cape values for today? Over 40mm fell in some places?

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
1 minute ago, StormLoser said:

I'm calling the Met Office out on their thunderstorm weather warning.  Drizzle, yes. Rain, yes, showers, yes.  Storms? Hmmmmmm.     Dan's got it right.

Yep. It is day one of my 4-day weekend. There is a bit of clear weather behind this crud on the continent.  However I feel like that convective stuff in the channel will produce more cloud hence no sunny fuel.

I have no technical knowledge to base these hunches off

IMG_20200618_093531.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Out of interest would the substantial rainfall overnight in my area increase Cape values for today? Over 40mm fell in some places?

Don't think Rainfall hasn't any effect on CAPE at all. It'd affect the moisture but that's it really. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I think a lot of people look directly at the warning and fail to look at the warning matrix. It's at the lowest in terms of probability which highlights the extreme uncertainty.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London

@Mapantz

And the met office t-storm warning was last updated 24hrs ago.  I think at the time there were rumours of a MCS import, which we know to be a wet mess

Edited by Chris Lea-Alex
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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
8 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

@Mapantz

And the met office t-storm warning was last updated 24hrs ago.  I think at the time there were rumours of a MCS import, which we know to be a wet mess

Just for 'lols' as they say, remember this from Tuesday?

spacer.png

I said at the time, I'd be as shocked as Chris in that pic if his forecast came off like that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Really good radar if you run the loop atm - Places the Low somewhere over North London. Everything in the Northern Home counties moving east to west yet a few miles south of the low west to east. 

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Hi Vickie

Yh its just a cute little name for an area that has not had a Cg strike in 11 months and it takes an incredible risk to break it. It generally runs from extreme SE Essex and the NE Kent coast through Chelmsford upto east of Colchester. It intersects the Triangle of Doom which runs from Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth through Norwich and down through to Chelmsford so yes you are firmly in it.

Even when a Slight risk is issued the chances of it being broken are little to slim but its poking a bit of fun at an area that is devoid of storms in most set-ups in the Uk

Can't remember the last time we had a good storm over Colchester, used to be guaranteed every year, now they seem to either crawl up the coast and hit Mersea Island or Clacton area and into Suffolk, or further west by about 10 miles and run away from us in short order. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

I'm a bit confused by the MetO thunderstorm update, it seems to talk more about the persistent rain, and says that the risk of thunderstorms is 'isolated'. Doesn't exactly sound like it deserves a warning then? Please correct me if i'm wrong.

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