Midlands Regional Discussion 17/06/2020 Onward

[MKN]

Potential for snow through the cheshire gap that has often served some of us well... 

sr-prec.webp

[MattStoke]

21 minutes ago, MKN said:

Potential for snow through the cheshire gap that has often served some of us well... 

sr-prec.webp 1.54 MB · 9 downloads

Seen some great little snow events here courtesy of the Cheshire Gap. Looks marginal, but then so does this whole setup. Biggest risks give biggest rewards!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Seen some great little snow events here courtesy of the Cheshire Gap. Looks marginal, but then so does this whole setup. Biggest risks give biggest rewards!

and here, still clear skies hope get that temp down, my thoughts tomorrow may start as snow, but get rainier as morning goes on

[I remember Atlantic 252]

thurs snow

[MKN]

Something to keep an eye on over future runs... 

[Midlander]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thurs snow

Yeah looks like the GFS shows a disturbance or trough (something like that) with precipitation moving south east. Although some other models keep most precipitation out west, so hopefully tomorrows model runs will help provide more insight  

Edit: 18Z ICON for example keeps most precipitation to the north or well west of Midlands

Edited December 29, 2020 by AppleUK 123

[Snowy L]

Decent shift East by the GFS for both day and night events.

Unfortunately showing a snow to rain event for Thursday night, though my experience of the last few days is models and weather apps have overestimated temperatures by 1or 2C. I have had zero marginality for today's and yesterday's events, not even in the showers behind today's front, which all the models had as certain rain.

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Decent shift East by the GFS for both day and night events.

Unfortunately showing a snow to rain event for Thursday night, though my experience of the last few days is models and weather apps have overestimated temperatures by 1or 2C. I have had zero marginality for today's and yesterday's events, not even in the showers behind today's front, which all the models had as certain rain.

Yeah today for example Met Office forecasted a high of 3 degrees, but due to the snowfall temps were suppressed at 1 degrees throughout most of the day. Plus if there still lying snow cover by then (I hope there will be) that will help as well I guess

Edited December 29, 2020 by AppleUK 123

[MattStoke]

Temperature below freezing, deep snow cover, ground frozen, and dense freezing fog. Proper winter weather

[RobR]

First proper overnight freeze here for a while, temps have been below freezing the past few nights but tonight everything is starting to freeze with some nasty ice on the side roads. 

[matty40s]

We started off at 11 am Cosgrove, semi sunshine and 1c, soon the snizzle drizzle started, 1.5c, drizzled all the way up Stoke Bruerne locks, 1c. 

Moored up at 3pm, drizzle stopped, clouds cleared, 1c, now, 22.45pm, 95% humidity, clear as a bell, everything soaked outside, 1c.

All the snow for 2 days to our west and North. Even Northampton 4 miles east, which is much lower , had some light snow at lunchtime.

 

Want snoooooowwww, or frost, or hail...or icebergs..

[BarometerCat]

INot seeing any Cheshire gap set up to be honest? Might be wrong... 

Not sure where any further precipitation is coming from, but it’s not there

Edited December 29, 2020 by B-C

[MKN]

24 minutes ago, B-C said:

INot seeing any Cheshire gap set up to be honest? Might be wrong... 

Not sure where any further precipitation is coming from, but it’s not there

Netweathers own model shows a small risk of there being some shower from that direction 9am till 3pm tomorrow 

[Summer of 95]

Showers reaching here down the gap now- and it's rain. Started freezing straight after sunset, really icy roads, about 60-70℅ of the snow left, and yet this is falling as rain at 2am. And starting to melt the ice that is left. Just unbelievable, hope it turns soon like this morning's stuff did- why can't it start as snow?

[MattStoke]

A light flurry of wet snow.

[BarometerCat]

9 hours ago, MKN said:

Netweathers own model shows a small risk of there being some shower from that direction 9am till 3pm tomorrow 

Looking at both the Euro4 and Arpege the gap never really gets inland, it’s not looking like a classic set up, the ones that deliver for the Midlands. 

Staying cold though!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, B-C said:

Looking at both the Euro4 and Arpege the gap never really gets inland, it’s not looking like a classic set up, the ones that deliver for the Midlands. 

Staying cold though!

aye just dry here, sun out so expecting some kind of thaw

[BarometerCat]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

aye just dry here, sun out so expecting some kind of thaw

Some of the best Cheshire gap set ups were unexpected (from memory!). You never know. Nowcast and radar watch for now!

uodate- Met Office warning suggests snow moving from North to South later possibly overnight.  One to watch then!

Edited December 30, 2020 by B-C

[MattStoke]

Euro4 and to a lesser extent the Arome still show heavy snow showers tomorrow. Other models have dropped it all together.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Euro4 and to a lesser extent the Arome still show heavy snow showers tomorrow. Other models have dropped it all together.

Aye surprised, GFS bone dry looks wrong surely? kink in flow means some kind of trough?

 

 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye surprised, GFS bone dry looks wrong surely? kink in flow means some kind of trough?

 

 

Gfs does look a bit odd. Completely dry more or less for the next 5 days. Things do usually show up at short notice though so as long as we remain cold enough for snow we should be in with chances 

Edited December 30, 2020 by MKN

[MattStoke]

One of my Met Office/BBC weather friends tells me it’s to do with how the models develop a small low. Potential for somewhere between North Wales and the IOW to see 10cm of snow but highly uncertain.

[Snowy L]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye surprised, GFS bone dry looks wrong surely? kink in flow means some kind of trough?

 

 

Don't understand that, the more that kink has developed (it's pretty much a small low pressure system in that pic), the less intense the ppn has become.

[shunthebartlett92]

I'd say just keep an eye on how things play out, think there's potential for a covering for parts of the midlands tomorrow, but as always keeping expectations low, and i expect a lot of will have melted by friday as milder uppers come into play.

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, B-C said:

Some of the best Cheshire gap set ups were unexpected (from memory!). You never know. Nowcast and radar watch for now!

uodate- Met Office warning suggests snow moving from North to South later possibly overnight.  One to watch then!

 and that yellow warning for snow and ice overnight from the Met office has now just been cancelled