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Tropical storm Cristobal has moved inland over southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving extremely slowly (just 3mph!) which is making the flooding situation worse. The sustained wind strength is 40mph so it has weakened a bit as it is over land. Eventually, Cristobal will start moving north and re-emerge over the GOM. It is exected to head to Louisiana, there is good model agreement for this. Landfall is expected by Sunday evening local time. Some strengthening is expected but most models keep Cristobal as a strong tropical storm, just short of hurricane strength. The ECM has it as a deeper system so probably a category 1 hurricane.

Cristobal_5pm_June3.jpg
WEATHER.COM

Here is what we know, and still don't know, about a potential U.S. Gulf Coast impact.

 

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Cristobal is still over the Yucatan Peninsula and it has weakened slightly to tropical depression status. A gradual northerly motion will start today and it will re-emerge over the warm waters of the GOM. Some gradual strengthening is expected so back to tropical storm status sometime tomorrow. Somehow, Cristobal is not expected to make it to hurricane status. Still good agreement for a Louisiana landfall sometime on Sunday or early Monday.

Cristobal_Primary_June4PM.jpg
WEATHER.COM

More details on Cristobal's future are coming into focus. Here's the latest complete briefing.

 

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Cristobal is moving north at 12mph and he is about to emerge back over the warm waters of the GOM. Central pressure remains 1000mb. He has regained tropical storm status with 40mph sustained winds, this is despite still being over land. A slow strengthening is expected from now on. All the models agree on a Louisiana landfall by Monday morning and central pressure 995mlbs.

image.thumb.png.429aeddf50aca1c562a6f653f28ccea3.png

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9th June,  "remnants of tropical depression #Cristobal entering Wisconsin. This is the farthest NW a tropical system has traveled in North America, the 3rd time one has crossed the state, and the 1st that crossed LakeSuperior. "

 

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7 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

9th June,  "remnants of tropical depression #Cristobal entering Wisconsin. This is the farthest NW a tropical system has traveled in North America, the 3rd time one has crossed the state, and the 1st that crossed LakeSuperior. "

 

Hi Jo. Did it still have a warm core by the time it reached Wisconsin then?

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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Jo. Did it still have a warm core by the time it reached Wisconsin then?

These are good http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/20061006/2.html

 

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.   --- seems so   ---- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al03/al032020.fstadv.028.shtml?

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

 

Edited by Jo Farrow
Add core image
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