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North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards


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Heavy rain has set in here. Yet another vile "summer" day. Apart from the Spring we seem to have been stuck in an almost permanent Autumn since last August, with no end in sight. We seem to have lost the seasons now. 

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Another great sunset this evening

Lovely sunset

Timelapse of Wigan cell taking off. Starts about 2.40 into video, also at 1.45, the way the cloud took off as well  

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19 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Heavy rain has set in here. Yet another vile "summer" day. Apart from the Spring we seem to have been stuck in an almost permanent Autumn since last August, with no end in sight. We seem to have lost the seasons now. 

Yes, especially winter has disappeared! The whole season with no snow or frost to speak of. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Showers are very fast moving and quite potent now... started off with decent spells of sunshine but frequent showers now back filling from nowhere so if your unlucky like yours truly is right now you get put under a torrential streamer for 20-30 mins.  Not a day were you could plan anything outdoors with any reasonable confidence of it staying dry.

All the way through 'lockdown' cracking flags with warm sunshine...now we're out of lockdown...rain bouncing off the aforementioned flags.

Edited by dodge
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Here in NW England we expect the month of August to be poor - decent Augusts have always been uncommon - but what is depressing is a recent tendency for very wet Junes. June 2020 is yet another that features in the top 20 wettest Junes for this region [Hadley regional data for last 148 years]. We now have 6 of the last 15 years that feature in the top 20 wettest:
2012 (1), 2007 (2), 2017 (12), 2020 (14), 2019 (16), 2016 (18)
In a stable climate it would be expected that only a couple of the last fifteen years would be in the top twenty. The fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture is insufficient explanation, on its own, for what is going on.

Diabolical that 4 of the last 5 Junes are in top twenty wettest.

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Can’t believe it but the BBC are actually forecasting a sunny day tommorow (well sunny Intervals) and highs of 17 degrees! ? I know that that’s nothing special for this time of year, but after what we’ve had to put up with over the last week, I’m sure it will feel great in comparison.  Tuesday however looks like another write-off washout day, heavy rain from the afternoon onwards and highs of only 14°. 

 

 Next week does look better but I noticed the BBC keep pushing the better weather backwards.  Very annoying.  Tuesday for example was previously forecast to be a dry and sunny day, is now forecast for heavy rain. 

 

 I think autumn has arrived extra early this year. 

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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Tentative signs of an improvement a week away. But we all know these things can be taken away in the runs ahead. Would be nice to get some warmth again but nothing too hot. 

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27 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Tentative signs of an improvement a week away. But we all know these things can be taken away in the runs ahead. Would be nice to get some warmth again but nothing too hot. 

 It’s like dangling a carrot in front of a donkey, almost there but frustratingly never quite within reach.  It’s as if they’re trying to tease us.  

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A very windy day. Thankfully some decent dry periods, heavy showers early evening. 

Tuesday forecast very poor, heavy rain, max 13 degrees.

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4 hours ago, John S2 said:

Here in NW England we expect the month of August to be poor - decent Augusts have always been uncommon - but what is depressing is a recent tendency for very wet Junes. June 2020 is yet another that features in the top 20 wettest Junes for this region [Hadley regional data for last 148 years]. We now have 6 of the last 15 years that feature in the top 20 wettest:
2012 (1), 2007 (2), 2017 (12), 2020 (14), 2019 (16), 2016 (18)
In a stable climate it would be expected that only a couple of the last fifteen years would be in the top twenty. The fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture is insufficient explanation, on its own, for what is going on.

Diabolical that 4 of the last 5 Junes are in top twenty wettest.

Yeah, apart from 2018, the last few Junes have been pretty atrocious.

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13 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Can’t believe it but the BBC are actually forecasting a sunny day tommorow (well sunny Intervals) and highs of 17 degrees! ? I know that that’s nothing special for this time of year, but after what we’ve had to put up with over the last week, I’m sure it will feel great in comparison.  Tuesday however looks like another write-off washout day, heavy rain from the afternoon onwards and highs of only 14°. 

 

 Next week does look better but I noticed the BBC keep pushing the better weather backwards.  Very annoying.  Tuesday for example was previously forecast to be a dry and sunny day, is now forecast for heavy rain. 

 

 I think autumn has arrived extra early this year. 

Don't know where the 'sunny day' or even 'sunny intervals' have disappeared to, with rain falling steadily here in S Cheshire this morning and absolutely no sign of the sun!

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I saw about 30 seconds of the Full Moon yesterday evening with Jupiter & Saturn above it during a small break in the clouds but since then the rain has been pouring-down on/off all night, although the wind has thankfully calmed down a bit now. The heating has been switched on for the first time in quite a few months and hoping that this weekends forecast is a little more forgiving as i've got a few hikes planned in the hills.

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5 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Don't know where the 'sunny day' or even 'sunny intervals' have disappeared to, with rain falling steadily here in S Cheshire this morning and absolutely no sign of the sun!

I tell a lie. The sun came out here in S Cheshire at midday and we have joined Scotland (as per a just-ended Zoom meeting) in having a nice afternoon, if still a bit blowy. I can hear the lawn mowers starting up as I write and I shall join them shortly. 

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Cheerful afternoon with lengthy sunny spells. The wind has also eased.

I miss those consecutive thunder days that we had mid June. That was the highlight of the summer for me.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

Cheerful afternoon with lengthy sunny spells. The wind has also eased.

I miss those consecutive thunder days that we had mid June. That was the highlight of the summer for me.

Yep, sunny intervals here too but still quite breezy. Feeling quite pleasant in the sun but cool in the breeze. But feels nice to have a partly cloudy day for a change, even if the temperatures are nothing to get excited about!

 

Yes, I liked the thundery spell around mid June, and the temperatures were also pleasant, if a bit humid. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I saw about 30 seconds of the Full Moon yesterday evening with Jupiter & Saturn above it during a small break in the clouds but since then the rain has been pouring-down on/off all night, although the wind has thankfully calmed down a bit now. The heating has been switched on for the first time in quite a few months and hoping that this weekends forecast is a little more forgiving as i've got a few hikes planned in the hills.

Yeah, there were some pretty lively showers last night, and they were still going on into the early morning, I know as I woke up early. 

 

You should be okay for walking at the weekend if this is right. Looks like nice pleasant conditions for walking, sunny spells, light winds, temperatures not too hot and fairly low humidity.

 

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.COM

14-day weather forecast for Whaley Bridge.

 

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Horrible FAX charts. 

image.thumb.png.1e33799343e3b1fbf19d1d59bbc59848.pngimage.thumb.png.01628f71d10b35968915569b2a79a414.pngimage.thumb.png.1a4153f2c1be35b0a1cb5c59b6cc6384.png

Annoying frontal train looks like for at least 48 hours 

PortlyEverlastingAppaloosa-size_restrict

 

With the kind of weather we've had to put with over the week, you'd think we'd have a strong greenland high and a deep trough of low pressure over the UK, like 2007 and 2012 style summers. But no, just a typical westerly flow, low pressure to the north, high pressure to the south, pretty standard stuff. But the weather fronts tell a different story, The devil is in the detail with this kind of setup.

 

You would look at the GFS for Tuesday and think it's not going to be overly unsettled, away from the north of Scotland anyway, just a slack westerly flow, but instead we've got heavy rain forecast and max temps in the low teens, as if there was deep low stationary over the country.

07-07-20 GFS.png

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Tomorrow looks vile.

Hours of heavy rain potential.

And the GFS for Tuesday doesn't even look the bad. It's not like we have a deep trough over the country, but as you don't seem to get that much rain where you live, it might not be too bad for you.

 

If there are three things that can be guaranteed in life, it's:

1. You will die.

2. You will pay tax.

3. There is a 99.999999999% chance that it will rain in Lancashire when we get a weather front over us.

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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3 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

And the GFS for Tuesday doesn't even look the bad. It's not like we have a deep trough over the country, but as you don't seem to get that much rain where you live, it might not be too bad for you.

 

If there are three things that can be guaranteed in life, it's:

1. You will die.

2. You will pay tax.

3. There is a 99.999999999% chance that it will rain in Lancashire when we get a weather front over us.

Quite sheltered here in a Wly or SWly yes. Anything with a NW component though and we're exposed.

Worst hit tomorrow looks to be S of the Ribble.

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30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite sheltered here in a Wly or SWly yes. Anything with a NW component though and we're exposed.

Worst hit tomorrow looks to be S of the Ribble.

That's not too far from where I live! ? Alough looking at the BBC forecast, I'm down for light rain tomorrow, so is Coniston, whereas Crewe and Whaley Bridge are both forecast to get heavy rain. And the wind is forecast to be west to south westerly tomorrow as well. There are quite a lot of hills to the north west of me though, so I would've thought I'm more protected in a north westerly, as well as a northerly and an easterly. If the wind is a moist westerly or south westerly though, I usually get hammered unfortunately.

 

Today has been mostly sunny and we've had a brisk north westerly, I tend to do quite well for sunshine in a north westerly, but quite poorly in a south westerly, not sure about other parts of the region though.

 

 

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Coniston.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for BB8.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Whaley Bridge.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Crewe.

 

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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3 hours ago, karyo said:

Cheerful afternoon with lengthy sunny spells. The wind has also eased.

I miss those consecutive thunder days that we had mid June. That was the highlight of the summer for me.

Fortunately l was off work that week, even though the storms went all around Macclesfield in every conceivable direction l managed to watch some cracking cells over Manchester from a vantage point.  Sigh, what a week that was.  Was thinking earlier that this time last year was the run up to all the unprecedented amounts of rain that was about to hit the North West towards the end of the month, resulting in the partial collapse of the Todbrook Dam in Whaley Bridge, leading to the towns evacuation the beginning of August. We don't want a repeat of that or the floods that hit most of the region.  Been rather pleasant here this evening, a bit of a breeze, nice conditions for a walk.  Hope weather improves for your holiday to the Llyn Peninsula, which month have you booked?

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1 hour ago, Rush2112 said:

Fortunately l was off work that week, even though the storms went all around Macclesfield in every conceivable direction l managed to watch some cracking cells over Manchester from a vantage point.  Sigh, what a week that was.  Was thinking earlier that this time last year was the run up to all the unprecedented amounts of rain that was about to hit the North West towards the end of the month, resulting in the partial collapse of the Todbrook Dam in Whaley Bridge, leading to the towns evacuation the beginning of August. We don't want a repeat of that or the floods that hit most of the region.  Been rather pleasant here this evening, a bit of a breeze, nice conditions for a walk.  Hope weather improves for your holiday to the Llyn Peninsula, which month have you booked?

Indeed, it was an amazing week! I was working from home so I managed to observed the weather. I would have missed the action if I was in the office.

Our climate is going from one extreme to the other in terms of rainfall. Very wet autumn and winter, record breaking dry spring and now back to wetter than normal for the summer so far. 

I am going on the 18th July for a week. I will be ok with a mixed week of weather.  I just hope it won't be grey continuously haha.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

That's not too far from where I live! ? Alough looking at the BBC forecast, I'm down for light rain tomorrow, so is Coniston, whereas Crewe and Whaley Bridge are both forecast to get heavy rain. And the wind is forecast to be west to south westerly tomorrow as well. There are quite a lot of hills to the north west of me though, so I would've thought I'm more protected in a north westerly, as well as a northerly and an easterly. If the wind is a moist westerly or south westerly though, I usually get hammered unfortunately.

 

Today has been mostly sunny and we've had a brisk north westerly, I tend to do quite well for sunshine in a north westerly, but quite poorly in a south westerly, not sure about other parts of the region though.

 

 

og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Coniston.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for BB8.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Whaley Bridge.
og-image.png
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

14-day weather forecast for Crewe.

 

SW airstreams are the death-knell for South Cumbria, always no matter what time of year bring low cloud shrouding everything and that dank humid moist feeling. Drizzle or light, moderate or heavy rain. Westerlies are not much better. We are more sheltered in a NW airstream, though heavy showers normally develop over the central fells and we get a hammering, but at least the sun tends to break through for decent amounts.

Tomorrow looks a shocker on the temp front, 13 degrees at best. Some 7 degrees or so below average max this time of year, equivalent of a -2 degree max in January. 

Thankfully things look like improving in time for the weekend, welcome return to drier sunnier weather but temps still below par. Won't matter too much given the strength of the July sunshine. The last 2 weekends have been abysmal.

Traditionally mid July marks the start of the warmest period of the year for here and that mid-high summer lazy hazy feeling - which lasts until about second week of August.

Edited by damianslaw
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