North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

58 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Did well considering Heaten Chapel had none. Very narrow margins. Looks more marginal this time. The wrf which did well last night has the precip intensifying over Manchester which could be interesting though.

Ridiculously fine margins last night. Withington area had barely anything but Fletcher Moss near the Mersey had more of a covering. 

[iand61]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I wouldn't be so excited if I was them, there was one of these that corrected so far south it pasted the channel islands and north of france a while back.

 

Anyone - question one is do these get all the way across or die a death.

 

 

 

At the moment there’s to much of a NNE element to the flow and they are barely heading inland but the main feature looks like it will be more ENE so hopefully will have no trouble getting well inland.

this far inland though, that’s another matter.

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I wouldn't be so excited if I was them, there was one of these that corrected so far south it pasted the channel islands and north of france a while back.

 

Anyone - question one is do these get all the way across or die a death.

 

 

 

Yeah, isn't the normal trend for these fronts to be 'corrected' South as the event gets closer since the models usually underestimate the strength of the block?

[Kasim Awan]

23 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Ridiculously fine margins last night. Withington area had barely anything but Fletcher Moss near the Mersey had more of a covering. 

Yes, because of the pivot. The Wizard Inn @ Alderly Edge came up top with 11cm, pivot & elevation there.

Elevation will be more significant in the AM if the precip is more scattered in nature which prevents steady evaporative cooling. It's likely there will be more organized precip locally this will better force the snowline down to low levels. The track looks to be a middle ground > west over the Dales before dropping south over Gtr Mcr. So anywhere here candidates for a low level covering. 

Before the marginality kicks in there will be a period that the snow line closer to ground level. Anywhere with decent intensity during this period is more likely to keep a ground level snow line & get a few cm.

Will be able to nowcast at about 11pm as again it could just go Lincs > Peaks & South

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, because of the pivot. The Wizard Inn @ Alderly Edge came up top with 11cm, pivot & elevation there.

Elevation will be more significant in the AM if the precip is more scattered in nature which prevents steady evaporative cooling. It's likely more organized precip locally will force the snowline down to low levels. The track looks to be a middle ground > west over the Dales before dropping south over Gtr Mcr. 

Will be able to nowcast at about 11pm

 

 

 

Presumably anyone who still has lying snow from yesterday to has more chance of snow tomorrow am, with the cooling effect. 

[severe snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, iand61 said:

At the moment there’s to much of a NNE element to the flow and they are barely heading inland but the main feature looks like it will be more ENE so hopefully will have no trouble getting well inland.

this far inland though, that’s another matter.

I assume that as this is a trough/front feature, it won't have difficulty getting right across, unlike showers which usually struggle to get across the hills before dying out. Therefore, positioning of the feature is the main thing to worry about, I would assume?

[Cheshire Freeze]

BBC has me down for heavy snow from 4am with light snow beforehand from 2am. But as we know, these computer generated forecasts aren't worth much.

[iand61]

4 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Yeah, isn't the normal trend for these fronts to be 'corrected' South as the event gets closer since the models usually underestimate the strength of the block?

It is and that’s why a bit of fear has set in in the Mad thread with some worrying that the snow may end up in the channel and wanting that rarest of late Christmas prezzies, a northerly correction.

 

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, because of the pivot. The Wizard Inn @ Alderly Edge came up top with 11cm, pivot & elevation there.

Elevation will be more significant in the AM if the precip is more scattered in nature which prevents steady evaporative cooling. It's likely there will be more organized precip locally this will better force the snowline down to low levels. The track looks to be a middle ground > west over the Dales before dropping south over Gtr Mcr. So anywhere here candidates for a level covering.

 

Will be able to nowcast at about 11pm as again it could just go Lincs > Peaks & South

 

 

I look forward to reading your nowcast! 
 

Yes my position here in south Manchester didn’t mean I had to walk (yes walk) very far to see more snow today.

Good to see the snow deserts of Sale, Altrincham, Salford, Wigan getting the most snow yesterday. About time. 

[Spah1]

Every model and app I can find for 10am tomorrow. 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Presumably anyone who still has lying snow from yesterday to has more chance of snow tomorrow am, with the cooling effect. 

It could help cool temps down before hand but there are so many other factors like precip intensity / longevity which are more important.

[severe snowstorm]

Things are definitely freezing up here. I can hear loud crunching sounds as cars drive down the road so the slush on the road is obviously now solid. Will be pretty treacherous on side roads right now.

[iand61]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Every model and app I can find for 10am tomorrow. 

Fair bit of consistency with them.

I just hope that they all show our region after the heavy snow has fallen and not that we have once again missed out.

[Joe Snow]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

BBC has me down for heavy snow from 4am with light snow beforehand from 2am. But as we know, these computer generated forecasts aren't worth much.

We’ll see I suppose think tonight might be more of a peaks and Pennines event sinking south into the Midlands. What do you see South Cheshire’s chances being like tonight @Kasim Awan ? Will we see a top up of the snow a lot of us saw last night?  

[Kasim Awan]

20 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

We’ll see I suppose think tonight might be more of a peaks and Pennines event sinking south into the Midlands. What do you see South Cheshire’s chances being like tonight @Kasim Awan ? Will we see a top up of the snow a lot of us saw last night?  

A top up is possible yes, esp for a few lucky ones. South Cheshire looks to be an ok spot with the northerly track. 

[Backtrack]

40 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Presumably anyone who still has lying snow from yesterday to has more chance of snow tomorrow am, with the cooling effect. 

Whilst lying snow really helps those temps drop, it only creates a boundary layer, say ground level to 5-10m above the ground. 
 

lying snow doesn’t help cool off the air to support snow. It can help it support freezing rain though I guess. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

-1.3°C here now and still falling. I can’t see any marginality even with the cloud later  it is much colder than forecast.

Yes in theory although temperatures will rise when cloud cover arrives. I think the issue in this set up is temperatures at 925hpa level? They look very marginal it would seem hence the forecast for rain at lower levels, small chance of freezing rain even? 

 

[Backtrack]

I don’t feel as though marginality is an issue tonight. Temps and dew points are below freezing here now, uppers look ok and the PPN is coming from the east, meaning no westerly modification or warm sector. 
 

I’m thinking if you get the PPN, you’re seeing snow away from the slightly milder immediate coastline...

[Joe Snow]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A top up is possible yes, esp for a few lucky ones. South Cheshire looks to be an ok spot with the northerly track. 

Good stuff the Cat & Fiddle road from Macclesfield up to you in Buxton might be tricky by the morning then  

[Rush2019]

47 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes, because of the pivot. The Wizard Inn @ Alderly Edge came up top with 11cm, pivot & elevation there.

Elevation will be more significant in the AM if the precip is more scattered in nature which prevents steady evaporative cooling. It's likely there will be more organized precip locally this will better force the snowline down to low levels. The track looks to be a middle ground > west over the Dales before dropping south over Gtr Mcr. So anywhere here candidates for a low level covering. 

Before the marginality kicks in there will be a period that the snow line closer to ground level. Anywhere with decent intensity during this period is more likely to keep a ground level snow line & get a few cm.

Will be able to nowcast at about 11pm as again it could just go Lincs > Peaks & South

 

 

Wizard Inn, literally an 8 minute drive away from me, Macclesfield had a dusting, which turned to slush soon after, certainly very marginal this morning.

[carl1980]

Holding around -0.6°c the last hour

[Chris.R]

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yes in theory although temperatures will rise when cloud cover arrives. I think the issue in this set up is temperatures at 925hpa level? They look very marginal it would seem hence the forecast for rain at lower levels, small chance of freezing rain even? 

 

Yes there is a week inversion at  925 but there  was also last night and it didn’t have much of  an effect and it looks like it will be mixed out again. As long as the air isn’t too saturated shouldn’t be too much of an issue. I agree though yes possibly freezing rain in places where it is light

Edited December 28, 2020 by Chris.R

[More Runs Needed]

1.8c here with humidity quite high, not much room for evaporative cooling to have an effect

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not even close to freezing here, it's 0.8c currently

[Osca31]

Does anyone know which model Met Desk ,who make the Snow Radar app get their radar predictions from?

Seems quite accurate.

Cheers