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North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    8 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

    Nice to see East Lancs getting some snow.

    Typical convective WSW’ly flow, dry as a bone down here in Manchester. 

    Mmm as always with our weather, very localised variations. In a WSW flow convection should have kicked into major gear here, alas barely no precipitation since lunchtime. All rather odd. 

    Lets see how far inland the frontal feature positions itself.

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    Nice and fresh on the tops with snow becoming powdery & forming a glaze layer. -2C at present.

    Looks like someone was looking for an argument in here (and in other parts of the forum as it goes), those posts have been removed now, so please refresh the screen if you still see them. 

    About 2 inches now.. Never expected this. 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl

    Looks like Euro4 has got it spot on tonight so far.

    Late evening it showed most accumulation north of Manchester.

    20122723_2_2712.thumb.gif.49c6c3f761229c090eb9315072e21c7e.gif

    And tomorrow it shows some snow as far east as parts of west Lancs and parts of Cheshire. Looks a bust for us in the far south-east of the region. 

    20122806_2_2712.thumb.gif.37cb73341d17a75efa91f4dd9bec3e36.gif 

     

    Edited by Frost HoIIow
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    It’s not

    I think it will hit before it pivots but bit of a waste of time around here as winds are still on shore and will be for a while yet, as I say, there could still be bits and pieces left on the PPN on its northern flank, nobody will know the exact details until it happens. 

    There's also a small potential risk of snowfall tomorrow night for the southern parts of the region, of course the same old question will be will the air be cold enough for snowfall or not. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
    3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Met office regional forecast is odd

    Monday:

    After a frosty start, any remnants of showers and wintry weather clear through the morning, leaving a largely dry day, but remaining cold. Showers developing overnight, heaviest in the south.

    Where do they get that last part from? 

    been showing on the Last few GFS runs for sleet/snow showers into southern parts of the region also shows on tonights 18z roughly in line Hull to Stoke.

    C.S

    Edited by cheshire snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm as always with our weather, very localised variations. In a WSW flow convection should have kicked into major gear here, alas barely no precipitation since lunchtime. All rather odd. 

    Lets see how far inland the frontal feature positions itself.

    Low heights & light winds are the culprit - this combo will always yeild shortwave & streamer development vs the usual rash of showers seen over 980mb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    Temperature has stalled at 3C and increases during any PPN, thought it would be falling. Must be Irish Sea temperature modification. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Low heights & light winds are the culprit - this combo will always yeild shortwave & streamer development vs the usual rash of showers seen over 980mb.

    Yes, your right. Always tricky knowing where such features will align, your either in the sweet spot or not, often very narrow band. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes, your right. Always tricky knowing where such features will align, your either in the sweet spot or not, often very narrow band. 

    This one was quite well modeled, probably a slightly less complex set up without shortwaves getting into the mix; a general streamer in a WSW wind . From experience these also align here: Burnley / Blackburn & into West Yorkshire. Streamer tends to funnel on the south side of the Forest of Bowland.

    Had the low heights been further north yes, Cumbria would have seen the streamer. The streamer will move with the wind dir & location of the lowest heights. If the heights are homogeneous throughout the region the streamer will set up central, if they are further north > Cumbria / Kendal.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

    Temperature has stalled at 3C and increases during any PPN, thought it would be falling. Must be Irish Sea temperature modification. 

    Don’t think it’s that. Wind is  almost off-shore. Think it’s the weak inversion between 950–900 mb keeps mixing down. Should mix out in a few hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

    @Day 10 I tend to agree with you I think the rest of the winter has a good chance to be very interesting possibly similar to 2013 although perhaps not as severe, just have a feeling.

    I have a report on my thoughts for  tonight coming shortly.

     

    2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

    Just to clarify. I’m not expecting any snow to fall within 15 miles of the coast or  below 50 m ASL from convective showers . The snow risk I refer to is exclusively from frontal precip.
    Edit: stupid phone!

    Hi Chris,

    Maybe the word I used earlier (historic) was a bit strong, however I do like you feel quite positive about this Winter. The NH has definitely been behaving very differently this year to what we have become accustomed to, the setup right now as we speak has snow chances right through the week, factor in the added chance of a possible now major SSW being forecast for early Jan and the stakes have just been raised! The timing would be absolutely perfect!

    If things fall right, then yes we may well be in for a proper cold spell of weather which 'could' last well into Feb.

    PS not surprised to still hear reports of rain, as I stated earlier any snow chances here (coastal) would be in the early hours (referring to the band coming from the NW & not the showers).

    Plenty going on and plenty to be excited about in the coming weeks. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

    -1c clear skies bright moon frosty not going to snow here tonight.... good luck everyone else in region... it wasn’t on the cards 24 hours ago for here... maybe through this week might get something.... it’ll be cold with highs 2-3c and frost/Ice this week that’s a good bet.... 

    Edited by WillinGlossop
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    Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

    Looking at Scotland and NI lots of rain and sleet involved... lookslike higher up might be ok in Wales but wouldn’t expect much where my mum and sis are in Somerset...damp seems to be for the majority... hence why I’ve stayed away from the massively overly snowmagedon mod thread recently... since Tamara etc left it’s been a bit of a free for all for ramping well [email protected], ie south east driven 

    i know what I can expect up here now from what direction in terms of weather... living up here for nearly 8 years...  

    Edited by WillinGlossop
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    5 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

    Looking at Scotland and NI lots of rain and sleet involved... lookslike higher up might be ok in Wales but wouldn’t expect much where my mum and sis are in Somerset...damp seems to be for the majority... hence why I’ve stayed away from the massively overly snowmagedon mod thread recently... since Tamara etc left it’s been a bit of a free for all for ramping well [email protected]

    I can kind of understand the ramping, it's a very blocked set up and it's going to be below average but snowfall is on the face of it at a premium which given the set ups on offer is very disappointing. 

    We could about to have a spell of weather which does not bring - 10 uppers! An easterly(with an ENE'ly tilt) and uppers of - 6 will NOT bring snowfall to most lower levels but don't tell the mod thread that, they think it's a convective snow machine these runs.

    Anyways the main risk of snow does seem very hit and miss, not too surprised by the reports across northern Ireland of snow turning to rain again as the uppers are marginally warmer there and winds coming in from the Atlantic. Little more surprised at the lack of snow reports across the central belt, goes to show you that the poor upper air temperatures is having some impact unfortunately. If the uppers were - 6 tonight, most PPN should fall as snow. 

    Ironically the uppers are forecast to get marginally colder into next week(dizzy heights of - 7 to - 8 perhaps), how much PPN there be will be debatable. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122

    Hhmm not to sure🤔

    C.S

    FB_IMG_1609109987331.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kings Lynn
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: Kings Lynn

    Well the snow is over here but it dropped 5-7cm at this altitude, and certainly also settled lower down in the town centres of Burnley, Blackburn etc at about 120-150m.

    So a decent snow event, the second of the month here.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
    2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I can kind of understand the ramping, it's a very blocked set up and it's going to be below average but snowfall is on the face of it at a premium which given the set ups on offer is very disappointing. 

    We could about to have a spell of weather which does not bring - 10 uppers! An easterly(with an ENE'ly tilt) and uppers of - 6 will NOT bring snowfall to most lower levels but don't tell the mod thread that, they think it's a convective snow machine these runs.

    Anyways the main risk of snow does seem very hit and miss, not too surprised by the reports across northern Ireland of snow turning to rain again as the uppers are marginally warmer there and winds coming in from the Atlantic. Little more surprised at the lack of snow reports across the central belt, goes to show you that the poor upper air temperatures is having some impact unfortunately. If the uppers were - 6 tonight, most PPN should fall as snow. 

    Ironically the uppers are forecast to get marginally colder into next week(dizzy heights of - 7 to - 8 perhaps), how much PPN there be will be debatable. 

    Absolutely agree... just the distorted views on mod thread making people think it’ll snow on low ground and its “historic” a bit self absorbed and well wrong... oh well I know what makes it snow in my neck of the woods now quite well...  I know what to look for from Tamara etc posts in previous years... miss our previous informative posters.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    22 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

    Looking at Scotland and NI lots of rain and sleet involved... lookslike higher up might be ok in Wales but wouldn’t expect much where my mum and sis are in Somerset...damp seems to be for the majority... hence why I’ve stayed away from the massively overly snowmagedon mod thread recently... since Tamara etc left it’s been a bit of a free for all for ramping well [email protected], ie south east driven 

    i know what I can expect up here now from what direction in terms of weather... living up here for nearly 8 years...  

    She leaves every year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
    7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    She leaves every year. 

    She’s informative and hopefully not left for good 😌🤞🤞 one of the best posters on here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    This one was quite well modeled, probably a slightly less complex set up without shortwaves getting into the mix; a general streamer in a WSW wind . From experience these also align here: Burnley / Blackburn & into West Yorkshire. Streamer tends to funnel on the south side of the Forest of Bowland.

    Had the low heights been further north yes, Cumbria would have seen the streamer. The streamer will move with the wind dir & location of the lowest heights. If the heights are homogeneous throughout the region the streamer will set up central, if they are further north > Cumbria / Kendal.

    Thanks for the above, will note for future reference. 

    Outlook reminding me of late Dec 2008 early Jan 2009, a cold period with lots of frost but very dry. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    1.2°C now, just need the precip

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Given how quiet it is in other threads, it seems I won't be missing much even if any  PPN hits. 

    All that said, I would say the further south and west in the region looks much more favoured, enjoy any snowfall you do see, could be the only realistic chance of seeing any. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Incoming!

    Untitled.thumb.png.d66488e4a906d20bc7c4d235b4c6e2f9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Sleet with big partially melted snowflakes in it. Getting heavier and turning  more to snow as it does. 1.9°C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

    Snowing here now turned to flakes about 10 mins ago

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