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North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

damianslaw

By damianslaw
in Regional

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

WRF 06Z has tomorrow night precipitation on the wrong side of marginal now which is a little disappointing. Hopefully 12z will go back the other way.

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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
Posted

Bit more interesting now met have put a warning for Sunday/Monday... as it’s showers and a frontal feature nothings nailed... but that’s why these situations are fun... suprises pop up at short notice ❄️ ⛄️ 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

It is worth bearing in mind in the next few days  that pressure is very low (down to 965 mb tomorrow) so geo-potential heights are also very low. For example although T850s are nothing special  the 850 mb  geo-potential height is only 1000–1100 m which is several hundred m lower than it would be under neutral pressure conditions. As a result  evaporative  cooling events may be more likely and  the colder air is closer to the surface.

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

A late outing walk. Looking towards the NW the winds have picked up markedly in the last half hour Bella incoming. GFS shows most of the strongest gusts West and South Coast. 

D71E7D52-4A5A-4CC0-9242-B2757D4032BB.thumb.jpeg.efc901f3f7baf63be7d7506ab8d56496.jpeg

 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

It is worth bearing in mind in the next few days  that pressure is very low (down to 965 mb tomorrow) so geo-potential heights are also very low. For example although T850s are nothing special  the 850 mb  geo-potential height is only 1000–1100 m which is several hundred m lower than it would be under neutral pressure conditions. As a result  evaporative  cooling events may be more likely and  the colder air is closer to the surface.

Hi mate, good to see you posting again. Back on my phone so not checked too much.

After the storm passes through winds look set to drop away which is also pretty crucial for us, a theme which looks set to continue. Quite a rare up and coming setup with cold enough air, little wind and little features drifting down from the north, bit of a rinse & repeat scenario all week I think. All good! 

Right, time for a boxing day beer! Cheers  

Edited by Day 10
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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
1 hour ago, iand61 said:

Nice to see the warning, just hope it delivers for the region now

0DE49A8D-68E4-450E-9AFB-E36E1DD2DDA3.thumb.jpeg.7e322a1fcf65fc67383aff4ce0688c82.jpeg

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted
41 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

0DE49A8D-68E4-450E-9AFB-E36E1DD2DDA3.thumb.jpeg.7e322a1fcf65fc67383aff4ce0688c82.jpeg

Yeah it is a bit of a messy map but our snow one is in there somewhere

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

All’s gone quiet in the mad thread, I can’t possibly imagine why unless the threat of snowy Armageddon in the Home Counties has been scaled back.

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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted
18 minutes ago, iand61 said:

All’s gone quiet in the mad thread, I can’t possibly imagine why unless the threat of snowy Armageddon in the Home Counties has been scaled back.

Biblical drizzle with sleet on the North Downs. Oh the humanity!

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
44 minutes ago, iand61 said:

All’s gone quiet in the mad thread, I can’t possibly imagine why unless the threat of snowy Armageddon in the Home Counties has been scaled back.

Maybe they realise the set up is not all as it seems!? GFS 06Z shows rain down the east coast on the 30th for example. 

I have never seen charts ramped up as ridiculasly as they have been. Yes some may see snowfall but transient at best and yes, lack of cold air is a issue in this set up unfortunately, can't hide behind that. 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Memories of 27/28 December 2000 even more so now, given the outlook, though not saying we will end up anywhere near as much snow as then, or indeed as cold. Temperatures in the lead up to that event were freezing, so we are starting on a different foundation. It's more the synoptical evolution, 27 December a frontal feature moved down from the NW overnight, and gave 5 inches of snow here, there was quite a bit in West Scotland and N Ireland, we then had 3-4 days ice days. Similiar scenario forecast overnight 27/28 Dec. These types of set ups can give appreciable snowfalls locally if precipitation is heavy enough. I'd be happy just with a cm or two. The fells should see a good cover.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Mark_p Community Regular

Mark_p

Posted
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
  • Location: Garswood, Merseyside
Posted

My expectations for snow settling at low elevations are pretty well low heh. I'm always up for being surprised though - it is an unusual set up. I'm sure we will see falling snow which is always nice. 

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted (edited)

Merry Christmas to you all. 
not been on much, been a tough year for all of us. 
not seen my Mrs and daughter in Thailand now for 10 months due to travel restrictions. So been a tough year for me personally: 

here hoping 2021 is much better and we get a good dumping of snow soon. 

Edited by Winter Hill
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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted
3 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Merry Christmas to you all. 
not been on much, been a tough year for all of us. 
not seen my Mrs and daughter in Thailand now for 10 months due to travel restrictions. So been a tough year for me personally: 

here hoping 2021 is much better and we get a good dumping of snow soon. 

Sorry to hear that mate, hope we can get shut of this horrible virus and you can get back with you family soon.

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Sorry to hear that mate, hope we can get shut of this horrible virus and you can get back with you family soon.

Thank you very much for those words 

having her ice cream today ❤️
 

563D7665-9AEE-48C7-AB7E-3CA74588EB3D.jpeg

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

Latest BBC graphics have me down for heavy snow throughout tomorrow and temperatures barely above freezing.

obviously it’s likely to change again but things seem to be firming up that Sunday and Monday could see much of our snow starved region finally see a decent convering.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

I think everyone above 100 m should do well tomorrow  but don’t think it will be good enough for snow to sea-level.

 

 

Monday morning precip still touch and go but has a good chance to be the right side of marginal if it gets here given off-shore wind and the time of day.

Maybe some more frontal precip Tuesday morning but too far away yet.

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted

Storm Bella beginning to make her presence known - winds becoming gusty here.

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Rain Lady Seasoned

Rain Lady

Posted
  • Location: SW Bowland Fells, Lancashire
  • Location: SW Bowland Fells, Lancashire
Posted

Rain lashing on west facing windows and really strong gusty wind now.  Been collecting up torches and candles.  A likely night for electric to go off.

Will be the end of the Chrstmas break for the emergency crews.

 

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