North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[Joe Snow]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

As we both hail from the same area I get why you'd love an Easterly, they were the best for Tyneside, but I seem recall when I first started posting in thus thread being told Easterly's are less reliable this side of the pennines and we want a Northerly or some sort of polar low

Yeah Easterlys although brilliant for Yorkshire and NE England  for the vast majority of lowland NW England away from the Peaks and Pennines (although very cold) don't deliver nowhere near as much as snow as a Northerly, NNW or polar low setup this side of the pennines. March 2013 for example was bitterly cold but relentlessly dull and dry for the vast majority of the lowland NW, early Feb 2009 delivered for the east of the region but only gave a slight covering to many west of the M6. An exception perhaps was the Feb 2018 BFTE but even then the London suburbs where I was living at the time saw more snow than many areas up here. Living down in London for 5 years you realise how continental the SE  climate (despite all the southerners moaning) is in certain scenarios with nearly every summer seeing 30c+ heatwaves and events like the BFTE making our much loved 5th Jan 2010 'snowmageddon' event look a bit small fry when I had about 20cm drifting snow in North London 10 miles from Big Ben lol! 

 

Back to the here and now and theres lots of small features/ potential to watch over the next few days - Thursday in particular. Ice and the threat of wintry showers being the biggest risk tonight though. Where do you think are best placed for tonight's showers and Thursday's snow potential @Kasim Awan will South Cheshire fall 3rd time lucky?  I'm hoping Merseyside and the Wirral get in on the wintry potential too  

[Andrew Griffiths]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Is that the starting of a streamer forming out in the Irish Sea? 

That’s what I was thinking.

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, Andrew Griffiths said:

That’s what I was thinking.

 

Seems to be for the North West of Wales rather than us though... 

[Backtrack]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 

A good sign then, glad I chose here. I’ve noticed temp tends to drop quickly in the evenings quite a lot.

Only because you’re surrounded by fields though, we always get more snow in Halton. Hahahahaha

[iand61]

24 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

As we both hail from the same area I get why you'd love an Easterly, they were the best for Tyneside, but I seem recall when I first started posting in thus thread being told Easterly's are less reliable this side of the pennines and we want a Northerly or some sort of polar low

Northerlies are good for the coast but don’t usually deliver this far inland but some of our best snow events have come from an easterly.

that said, I live as far east as it’s possible to get in Lancashire before falling into West Yorkshire, further west it may be a different matter.

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Yeah Easterlys although brilliant for Yorkshire and NE England  for the vast majority of lowland NW England away from the Peaks and Pennines (although very cold) don't deliver nowhere near as much as snow as a Northerly, NNW or polar low setup this side of the pennines. March 2013 for example was bitterly cold but relentlessly dull and dry for the vast majority of the lowland NW, early Feb 2009 delivered for the east of the region but only gave a slight covering to many west of the M6. An exception perhaps was the Feb 2018 BFTE but even then the London suburbs where I was living at the time saw more snow than many areas up here. Living down in London for 5 years you realise how continental the SE  climate (despite all the southerners moaning) is in certain scenarios with nearly every summer seeing 30c+ heatwaves and events like the BFTE making our much loved 5th Jan 2010 'snowmageddon' event look a bit small fry when I had about 20cm drifting snow in North London 10 miles from Big Ben lol! 

 

Back to the here and now and theres lots of small features/ potential to watch over the next few days - Thursday in particular. Ice and the threat of wintry showers being the biggest risk tonight though. Where do you think are best placed for tonight's showers and Thursday's snow potential @Kasim Awan will South Cheshire fall 3rd time lucky?  I'm hoping Merseyside and the Wirral get in on the wintry potential too  

Hi Joe , interesting post and I agree. 
 

Convective easterlies can actually deliver the goods for this part of the world, basically the further east you are in the region the better though. Nowhere near as much as east of the Pennines but sometimes we can do surprisingly well with streamers setting up from the Humber up the M62 corridor. 

Frontal snow is another story. When the wind is from an easterly quarter many parts of the NW miss out on frontal events (mainly Manchester and Cheshire) even if snow is forecast by the pros. It’s infuriating but gaps appear on the radar nearly every single time, especially if the wind is from the SE (nightmare scenario). Western parts of the region then tend to do better than those further east.
 

This is why Manchester is often poorly placed for snow, we always miss out on easterly frontal events. Every time. 

[Deep Snow please]

Definitely and IoM streamer setting up. Obviously better for Wales than us but worth keeping an eye on this lot over the next hour.

 

 

[Chris.R]

Winds aloft are supposed to back overnight so shower should start coming further east.

[captaincroc]

29 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Kasim, your posts are absolutely brilliant and you’ve got the past couple of nights spot on. Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts, would really appreciate if you could do the same tomorrow. 
 

South Manchester has done unusually well so far and I’m hoping for more snow on Thursday now. I can see that the UKV (or is it Mogreps) must be improving as my MetO app is showing snow here on Thursday from midnight to 3pm, with a temp of -1C to begin with. This outlook will change frequently as more runs come out. 

 

I second this Joe. Thanks Kasim for your knowledge, time and 'Nowcasts' haha. They are much appreciated.  

Defo exciting times with many things that could pop up at last min...here's hoping the marginal synoptics slowly get less so over the next few days.  To be fair, all I want is what snow does fall to at least stay around a bit. Yes it will thaw slightly in the day but not the rapid thaws we are used to in breakdown scenarios.

I saw on my village's FB group the snow still thick this evening... so will be there by the time I get back tomorrow. That for me is so much better than a 1ft of snow to melt in 24 hours as mild SWs come in.

Here's hoping more of the region get lucky in the next few days. 

[severe snowstorm]

Liverpool Airport TAF indicating showers from 22:00 onwards this evening so this is when we can probably expect the showers in the Irish Sea to start to have a more Eastward movement/formation and to start making land across Western parts of the region.

[captaincroc]

I am hoping that the lack of wind will help in this marginal uppers/dews etc.  From experience - normally - the stronger the wind the more chance of sleety wet snow rather than the main deal. I'm guessing because the strong wind creates mixing of the warmer sea temps?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Dangerously icy here already. Not even seen a gritter.

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Dangerously icy here already. Not even seen a gritter.

What's the snow like there now? Much thawing?

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I am hoping that the lack of wind will help in this marginal uppers/dews etc.  From experience - normally - the stronger the wind the more chance of sleety wet snow rather than the main deal. I'm guessing because the strong wind creates mixing of the warmer sea temps?

 

6 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I am hoping that the lack of wind will help in this marginal uppers/dews etc.  From experience - normally - the stronger the wind the more chance of sleety wet snow rather than the main deal. I'm guessing because the strong wind creates mixing of the warmer sea temps?

Yes exactly it certainly will help to an extent. Hopefully decreasing the area that’s the wrong side of marginal to only 1-2 miles from the coast. Glad I don’t live in Crosby anymore  tonight.

[Chris.R]

1.0°C now. Don’t have DP as rh sensor has not been working recently.

[Day 10]

Latest Fax Wednesday night into Thursday lunchtime.

You can see the problem at the coast by just showing the dewpoints.

Further inland looking good again though.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Day 10

[Deep Snow please]

How much trouble would I get in if I sunk the IoM - seems to be ruining the party..... 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Sceptical to be fair - can't see  where the next amount of ppn is coming from - Radar has classic wishbone effect.

[Deep Snow please]

 

If only.... 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Deep Snow please

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

If only.... 

Boom, what a chart that is!

[Mark_p]

Wind direction is basically northerly at the moment (slight NNW to it I suppose) so I'd be very surprised to see showers in the region until much later on when that changes. We have done well imby from streamer set ups - they're very rarely forecast either to any degree of accuracy but marginality is always a consideration with anything coming off the Irish Sea...which is probably why we've had the two snow falls over these past 2 days, the offshore flow reduced that marginality enough but it's all been very knife edge hasn't it. 

[Frost HoIIow]

In terms of wind direction I think our region is probably the most crazy when it comes to snow variations. Here where I am we seem to do best from easterlys, E or NE winds. Rochdale, Oldham, Tameside and parts of eastern Stockport seem to do best in Greater Manchester from these. But never SE for some reason. Almost always a rain shadow opens up in a SE wind especially if the wind is strong. It really is odd. 

I can get decent amounts from WNW winds or a cold direct westerly (how rare are these nowadays?), but these events are often slushy snow, fleeting and mild air soon follows but nonetheless good to see snow from any source. Northerlys are not that great for here though. Too far inland to benefit from them unless there's troughs in the flow, they just generally give sunny days but penetrating night frosts. But I guess good for northern facing areas such as N Scotland, N Ireland, N Wales, Norfolk etc. These areas can do really well for snow in a proper northerly.

[Weather-history]

Full moonrise this evening 

         

 

[cheshire snow]

Just watched the weather on ITV and a classic Cheshire Gap streamer shown only problem all the showers were blue and not white and showed a overnight low for here as 2c,at the moment the temperature is 0c and DP is 0.7c so already wrong on the Minimum temperature.

Not to much snow melt today so the pavements and grassy areas are solid ice and very dangerous if all the showers shown are snow it will be an absolute classic.

C.S

[Weather-history]

You can see the cells moving through Anglesey on the Llandudno webcam, the moonlight really lights everything up

WebCam in Llandudno North Wales | West Shore Beach Cafe

WWW.WESTSHOREBEACHCAFE.COM

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This North Wales webcam shows views from the West Shore of Llandudno across to Penmaenmawr, Puffin Island, Angelesey and the south west of the Great Orme.