North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[Geordiesnow]

Definite some potential for some in the more south and western parts of the region tonight, the good news is the uppers going to get a bit lower overnight and into the morning with uppers dropping to -6. I guess the less good news is surface winds will be coming in from the sea but more inland parts which is in the line of any PPN could well see snowfall. 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[Summerstorm]

Yeah can we have some more snowfall there's not a single flake on the ground here. 

[Spah1]

Amazing day!

 

 

Got a dusting In Clayton-le-Woods. Heaviest snow kept to my East. Jumped on the M65, exit junction 5. 5 mins down the road into Darwen, best sledging Hill ever. Kids had a blast. More radar watching over the next 2 days! 

[Weather-history]

Can see cumulus cells over the Irish Sea from here.

Full moon and with snow cover....

[Day 10]

4 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Just looked at the data and yes I agree with you. Certainly tomorrow evening until tomorrow night there is much better parameters. 500–1000 Thickness down to 519, T850  down to -7.2 and surface/ boundry layer temperature around or below 0. Just need precip i”which WRF doesn’t want much of.

Yeah agree, I'd go for around 9pm to 2am.

Longer term still looks excellent.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Day 10

[dodge]

Very good start to the winter season... more than we had last year.  The Polar Vortex has gone on holiday, blocking galore.  I think we deserve a few more snowy falls before the Atlantic wakes up again.  Signs are good.

[Kasim Awan]

Evening all. Inland central parts of the region are nicely placed for Thursday. 2-5cm possibly more locally, ICON / UKM hi res trending this way. Uncertainty applies.

Some in Mcr could bag a white Xmas & white New Years Eve.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Yeah agree, I'd go for around 9pm to 2am.

Longer term still looks excellent.

The problem atm is for the coast - inland areas will retain a cold slice below 300m whilst the coast will loose this fairly easily. The cold surface DPs can do a good job of masking this warmed profile above @ in this set up -6 uppers would be required to remove this. Thursday might be different but ultimately this is still a factor.

[Linda]

I was watching the documentary on the big freeze of 1963 and it’s got marked simularities to this year -it’s a long long time since we got snow this early  

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Linda said:

I was watching the documentary on the big freeze of 1963 and it’s got marked simularities to this year -it’s a long long time since we got snow this early  

Agree the evolution is already exceptional compared to recent times.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The problem atm is for the coast - inland areas will retain a cold slice below 300m whilst the coast will loose this fairly easily. The cold surface DPs can do a good job of masking this warmed profile above @ in this set up -6 uppers would be required to remove this. Thursday might be different but ultimately this is still a factor.

I'm still craving for a PROPER cold spell from the North or East, ones where you dont have to worry about warmer layers in the atmosphere. 

Surprisingly the UKMO at 48 hours is slightly colder than the GFS, uppers of -6 I feel more comfortable seeing snow falling than uppers of -4 that is for sure.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

I'm still craving for a PROPER cold spell from the North or East, ones where you dont have to worry about warmer layers in the atmosphere. 

Surprisingly the UKMO at 48 hours is slightly colder than the GFS, uppers of -6 I feel more comfortable seeing snow falling than uppers of -4 that is for sure.

In 990mb heights uppers of -4 are equivallent to uppers of -6 in 1020mb heights in terms of surface temps so in low heights they do not need to be as low. Good chance of getting the airmass you talk of in in the next few weeks.

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm still craving for a PROPER cold spell from the North or East, ones where you dont have to worry about warmer layers in the atmosphere. 

Surprisingly the UKMO at 48 hours is slightly colder than the GFS, uppers of -6 I feel more comfortable seeing snow falling than uppers of -4 that is for sure.

As we both hail from the same area I get why you'd love an Easterly, they were the best for Tyneside, but I seem recall when I first started posting in thus thread being told Easterly's are less reliable this side of the pennines and we want a Northerly or some sort of polar low

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

As we both hail from the same area I get why you'd love an Easterly, they were the best for Tyneside, but I seem recall when I first started posting in thus thread being told Easterly's are less reliable this side of the pennines and we want a Northerly or some sort of polar low

Oh yes easterlies in terms of snow are terrible here, I learnt that from the beast from the east but at least it gives us more cold air to play with so less marginal as a result incase any troughs do come into play. Not expecting-15 uppers but -8 to -10 is more than enough.

 

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In 990mb heights uppers of -4 are equivallent to uppers of -6 in 1020mb heights in terms of surface temps so in low heights they do not need to be as low. Good chance of getting the airmass you talk of in in the next few weeks.

But all that is no good if one area of the atmosphere is above freezing which is I assume what your post is implying? It does seem at this stage, the next PPN to come down from the north will be a snow turning to rain event but details will no doubt change.

[Linda]

I nearly had a heart attack reading this till I realised it was LAST year!! I’m screenshotting it just to make us realise how lucky we have been this  year! 

 

 

[Linda]

[Backtrack]

Temperatures are really struggling to fall. Fluctuating between 3.5-4C even with lying snow still on the ground and crystal clear skies above. Unsure what’s going on. No wind. 

[Joe Bloggs]

20 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Evening all. Inland central parts of the region are nicely placed for Thursday. 2-5cm possibly more locally, ICON / UKM hi res trending this way. Uncertainty applies.

Some in Mcr could bag a white Xmas & white New Years Eve.

Kasim, your posts are absolutely brilliant and you’ve got the past couple of nights spot on. Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts, would really appreciate if you could do the same tomorrow. 
 

South Manchester has done unusually well so far and I’m hoping for more snow on Thursday now. I can see that the UKV (or is it Mogreps) must be improving as my MetO app is showing snow here on Thursday from midnight to 3pm, with a temp of -1C to begin with. This outlook will change frequently as more runs come out. 

 

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In 990mb heights uppers of -4 are equivallent to uppers of -6 in 1020mb heights in terms of surface temps so in low heights they do not need to be as low. Good chance of getting the airmass you talk of in in the next few weeks.

This is a point I have been trying to stress a lot in here recently. It’s about the geo-potential heights as well not just the temperature.

[Andrew Griffiths]

Just been out to lock the front gate and the car is frozen already, no snow left to be seen from this morning, but the temps here have dropped a lot already, some interesting stuff looks to be forming over the Irish Sea on the radar as well.......

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Temperatures are really struggling to fall. Fluctuating between 3.5-4C even with lying snow still on the ground and crystal clear skies above. Unsure what’s going on. No wind. 

It’s 2.1°C here and falling slowly. I would’ve thought you would be a bit lower around what I am reporting but maybe it’s just a microclimate. A slight onshore breeze tonight so it will be a struggle to get the temperature down so  hopefully we are enough inland.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Chris.R

[Backtrack]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

This is a point I have been trying to stress a lot in here recently. It’s about the geo-potential heights as well not just the temperature.

Indeed. You don’t need 850s lower than 0/-1 in the lowest of pressure scenarios 

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

It’s 2.1°C here and falling slowly. I would’ve thought you would be a bit lower around what I am reporting but maybe it’s just a microclimate. A slight onshore in tonight so it will be a struggle to get the temperature down so  hopefully we are enough inland.

Halewood is always colder than surrounding areas. The missus’ parents live there, always a degree or so colder 

[Chris.R]

Just now, Backtrack said:

Halewood is always colder than surrounding areas. The missus’ parents live there, always a degree or so colder 

 

Just now, Backtrack said:

Halewood is always colder than surrounding areas. The missus’ parents live there, always a degree or so colder 

A good sign then, glad I chose here. I’ve noticed temp tends to drop quickly in the evenings quite a lot.

[Deep Snow please]

Is that the starting of a streamer forming out in the Irish Sea?