Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[sheikhy]

Gfs back to what is was showing on the 00z with a low sweeping through!!ukmo on the other hand is interesting at 120 hours!!hot with severe storms after!!!

[bluearmy]

Gets messier with each run! 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Oh never mind then initially looked weaker to me 

I was actually thinking along the same lines as you, Ross Andrew: 1000mb doesn't really equate to a deep, controlling low-pressure system? 

Though, that said, things often go pear-shaped quite quickly!

    So that's that forked, then!

Bugger! But at least it'll be mild?

    

Edited June 21, 2020 by General Cluster

[Leo97t]

output looking slightly worrying for the weekend with lp stuck around high pressure on four sides of It that setup can be very pervasive but still early days

[Man With Beard]

Arpege 12z is out for Thursday (French view) and shows 34C in the SE, generally hot away from west coasts

[Djdazzle]

GFS 12z so different from the 6z. Next . . .

[Captain Shortwave]

The reliable timeframe is going to be stuck at Friday for a couple of days yet... what a mess....

Both the GFS and UKMO want to send that first wave towards Iberia but the timing and speed is so crucial to where it ends up. The GFS absorbs this into the upstream low, the UKMO has a better crack at it but ends up with another warm and sticky mess of a low overhead. Plenty of showers and thunderstorms along and behind the boundary of the heat.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO looks potentially wetter than its 0z run for a few places...albeit warmer and more humid.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 12z so different from the 6z. Next . . .

unbelievable how can be fantastic, to shocking day, vile day this, are we going to be this unlucky?

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Liking the UKMO (if it's correct of cause)and it is pretty similar to the 06z gfs from earlier by sending that low into Iberia

12z 120 v's 00z 144,i know there is a 24hr gap but i cannot do anything about that

i am hoping the UKMO has sniffed out the right solution here.

[Guest]

What a complete mess! GFS now has a max of just 20c here on Friday. Saturday now just 17c, let’s hope there’s not two weeks payback for 2 warm days, hoping given the ensembles from 06z the gfs ops run will be an outlier!! 

[Zak M]

GEM looks very tasty for Wednesday 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

GEM looks very tasty for Wednesday 

much better Fri/Sat too, unlike vile GFS

[Methuselah]

Well, this would be nice, wouldn't it... if it weren't at T+321?!

    

But still, the GFS 12Z is, like many a run before it, nowhere near as awful as some would suggest...?

[Djdazzle]

GFS 12z mean much better than the op.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Why o why do some lose there heads when the GFS op gives a bad outcome!! At least wait for the mean and ens before reaching for the sick bucket.. The mean is much better, I would imagine the op is gonna be a major outlier.. Wouldnt be a suprise would it.

Then in true GFS style it goes pear shaped..

Edited June 21, 2020 by MATT☀️

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think I can sum up most people's reactions in 2 gifs... The first one would have come after viewing the GFS... The 2nd one would have been my reaction after viewing the GEM..

[Mike Poole]

Well we are getting into the kind of range when we can start looking at some short range probabilistic output, which I always like because it means an interesting weather scenario is already nailed on by the main models.

So here's the PEARP ensemble, for Wednesday 4 pm, at 10%, 50%, and 90% of the probability distribution:

The biggest uncertainties seem to be in Central and Eastern Scotland.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

In my opionion gfs is just having a wobbly moment as it does with every hot spell there will always be a run where it ends the fun with LP moving in too quickly. Next weekend isn't even nailed down and still chance the warmth could extend through next weekend. Lets see what ECM has to say....

[summer blizzard]

Wow. GFS is about as close as we get could get to a blink and miss it downgrade. We basically get 20C+ tomorrow, 30C+ potentially on Tuesday-Thursday but only really in the south east (if your north of Birmingham this spell will be warm but very unexceptional at 25C+) and then on Thursday afternoon through the evening the GFS model develops an area of instability in the Bay Of Biscay which moves north developing significant storms around the Irish Sea before progressing through the rest of the UK as it becomes more like a secondary low. The warm air advection into the primary low from all this deepens it such that the breakdown front quickly follows through on Friday night.

Great if you want severe weather potential (the folks in North Wales-Manchester area will be wondering how they've been so lucky) but essentially it becomes a three fine days and a thunderstorm affair. 

 

All caused by this stray bit of the front west of Spain on Wednesday..

Which begins to energise due to the low to the west as pressure begins to drop to its north and east.

Such that by midnight Thursday it has moved from the Spanish corner to south west England as it begins to develop.

All very interesting. 

 

[Guest]

GEM ensembles nowhere near as aggressive as GFS the mean at 13Z on Saturday is still 13.6C @ 850 verses GFS's lowly 9.7C. 

[northwestsnow]

Fingers crossed with the heat and eventual instability we might see some cracking storms..

ec 72 looks very warm..

[northwestsnow]

EC 96 also very warm..

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 v UKMO and GFS:

Bit betwixt and between, but I don't think the low is barrelling through on this one.  Bit of a spot the difference here, the first two have the shallow northern low N Iceland, GFS has it SW Iceland.

Edited June 21, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

The IOD has gone positive, less good news for drought stricken Australia. Hope next winter we don’t see what we saw last winter, strong events nearly always dire for our winters.

Not sure what implications this has for summer, it’s interesting we tend to see more +IOD during El Niño not La Niña as we are transitioning, so maybe this is a good thing for summer?