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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Just looking at the eps 06z mean and marginal step towards the Ukmo/gfs 00z by day 6. . Perhaps biggest change is a slightly sharper upper trough towards Iberia which could illustrate the chances of a cut off low increasing .....(as per gfs 06z)

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Night times look very warm this week with London not dropping below 22C all night on some nights. Could the lowest overnight record temp be under threat? 

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Posted (edited)

Looking beyond the hot Mediterranean spell @ thundery breakdown it does look like becoming flatter with a relatively cooler more changeable regime..a north / south split (best further south) but I’m sensing improvement into early July as hinted at here on the GEFS 6z mean / Ecm 0z ensemble mean (Azores ridge / high)..as you guys know, I tend to look on the bright side of life meteorologically speaking and you certainly won’t see me being negative for the sake of being negative!!..in the meantime, there’s an increasingly fab-u-lus week ahead with 90F..the first of the summer so far..being realistic..perhaps a notch or to higher!??☀️?️
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Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted (edited)

The Lovely Navgem 6z is tricking out currently and is still looking Toasty in the coming days before the core of the heat is shifted east . 

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Edited by Mark wheeler
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I notice ECM has pegged back the high temps in London probably to do with light breezes off estuary, but has increased coverage in England and Wales even parts of Scotland mid 20s. Wed / Thurs / Fri.

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I wonder if we can achieve 90F in all three summer months this year? Looking highly likely this week, so just July and August to go!

I can only recall 1976, 1995 and 2019 achieving that feat.

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It's looking likely then that the hottest temps could be on Friday then? The heat gets shunted eastwards by then but there are a lot more 29Cs.

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1 minute ago, h2005__uk__ said:

It's looking likely then that the hottest temps could be on Friday then? The heat gets shunted eastwards by then but there are a lot more 29Cs.

I think we need to see what the 12z runs say first. I remember last July during the heatwave that it was initially Wednesday that was predicted to be the hottest, but it was eventually Thursday that turned into the record breaker.

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9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I wonder if we can achieve 90F in all three summer months this year? Looking highly likely this week, so just July and August to go!

I can only recall 1976, 1995 and 2019 achieving that feat.

2018 did this too, several times in each month.

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

2018 did this too, several times in each month.

I wasn't sure whether it got to 90F in June?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

It's looking likely then that the hottest temps could be on Friday then? The heat gets shunted eastwards by then but there are a lot more 29Cs.

Looking through the ECM ensembles for Friday, about 80% achieve "raw" 4pm temperatures of 28C, and about 30% achieve 30C or more. 

I'd suggest a close call between Thursday and Friday, though the latter days of a heatwave tend to be the hottest? 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Just now, Djdazzle said:

I wasn't sure whether it got to 90F in June?

It happened several days in a row in Porthmadog, freak fohen effect there ?

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

It happened several days in a row in Porthmadog, freak fohen effect there ?

Thought that was July, but now you mention it . . .

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Decent Icon 12z..the heat is most definitely on, but I think we already new that. Low pressure towards the NW by day 6 and 7,but still looking not to bad towards the South. 

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7 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

Decent Icon 12z..the heat is most definitely on, but I think we already new that. Low pressure towards the NW by day 6 and 7,but still looking not to bad towards the South. 

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Going by these charts it's really on E/SE on Friday

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ICON 12z shifts the LP much further north compared to the 00z.

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3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

The low looks a bit weaker on the GFS 12z or is it just me?

looks stronger and faster moving in to me

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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

looks stronger and faster moving in to me

Oh never mind then ? initially looked weaker to me 

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Posted (edited)

Changes on the UKMO 12z, the Low is neither as deep or as centred over us compared to the morning run. 

Pretty messy day 6.

UW120-21.gif

UW120-21 (1).gif

UW144-21 (1).gif

Edited by MATT☀️
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Interesting ukmo so far to T120 — is the trough making a break for it to our SW? 

UW120-21.GIF?21-17

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The GFS is certainly a bit warmer for Scotland on Thursday, mid twenties rather than 21C and some storms to boot!

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