Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

decent EC, looks very good away from far NW, dosen't go tits up until Mon 29th

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I think we might get a bit more than drizzle on the day 9 chart....

   

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Are you sure it's only the ECM that's been out on the raz, Chris?

Yep, even Chris’s glass is half full tonight!

[Singularity]

Should have held on for the update  - heat briefly reloaded, not as much as I wondered if might occur but it wouldn't have taken much. As for the instability... well, this would be noisy.

What's interesting about this run is, as Mike Poole noted earlier, that it represents a shift partway toward what GEM's been doing to bring in a wedge of >20°C 850s. After the past few summers, I'm less inclined to rule such things out these days. Not saying it's likely, mind. Just... plausible.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Depends how you define 'reload'. Looks to me that the heat will - perhaps briefly spectacularly, but the fine weather less so - could be a very unstable picture by D10 as that weak low to the west interacts with the plume.

 

It was more to do with the jet running in this sort of pattern - that trough is only heading one way when it gets enough of a push. It makes it by 216 but wraps up some very hot air amongst.

[Singularity]

  

 

For what it's worth, the parallel ECM has similar timing to proceedings, yet a much less dramatic breakdown. Goes to show the high sensitivity of such events to small variations in the broader scale pattern.

[Jamie M]

Lord.

[h2005__uk__]

How do you get the Netweather UKV charts?

[Man With Beard]

Really enjoying this ECM run tonight! One of the runs that sends the low for Thursday / Friday north, keeps the heat in place for the south and then lets it return to more areas later in the weekend. Then Monday week - BANG!! ECM has 32C at MIDDAY (raw temps, so add a couple more for the actual), then SEVERE thunderstorms:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20200629-1200z.html

Unlikely to happen like that but interesting to see! 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Really enjoying this ECM run tonight! One of the runs that sends the low for Thursday / Friday north, keeps the heat in place for the south and then lets it return to more areas later in the weekend. Then Monday week - BANG!! ECM has 32C at MIDDAY (raw temps, so add a couple more for the actual), then SEVERE thunderstorms:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20200629-1200z.html

Unlikely to happen like that but interesting to see! 

Whats the temps looking like for midlands for the following week mate? !!latest ukv as posted above is 30-32 degrees on thursday

[Robbie Garrett]

46 minutes ago, Alderc said:

If you're here on the south coast you'd 100% bank the ECM tonight. Hot right through to the end of next weekend, with you'd fancy some monsterous storms breaking out!  

Tripod and GoPro at ready (Y) 

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

How do you get the Netweather UKV charts?

They're on NW extra 

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whats the temps looking like for midlands for the following week mate? !!latest ukv as posted above is 30-32 degrees on thursday

ECM has 27-28c in the midlands Thursday, with 30c in London and the west of London. Could probably add 1-2c to these as usual.

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whats the temps looking like for midlands for the following week mate? !!latest ukv as posted above is 30-32 degrees on thursday

Raw temps from ECM for the West Midlands area, which as you know I believe 2-3 can be added to for actuals:

Tuesday 24C

Wednesday 27C 

Thursday 28C

Friday 27C

Saturday 24C

Sunday 23C

Monday 26C

For East Midlands, in general you can add a couple of degrees to that on most days, several more on the Monday

 

[mb018538]

Ahoy there ECM!

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Raw temps from ECM for the West Midlands area, which as you know I believe 2-3 can be added to for actuals:

Tuesday 24C

Wednesday 27C 

Thursday 28C

Friday 27C

Saturday 24C

Sunday 23C

Monday 26C

For East Midlands, in general you can add a couple of degrees to that on most days, several more on the Monday

 

Perfect nice and hot!!anywhere between 25-30 degrees for a week after adding a couple of degrees to the forecasted temps?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a bad ECM mean, the pressure stays at around 1018mb out to day 14.

Just out of interest the latest EC46 looks pretty reasonable out to mid July.. Pressure looks relatively high towards the South. 

But it looks pretty mixed towards the NW at times.. precipitation amounts quite high at times in these more W/NW Locations. Probably be all change come Monday again.. Will keep you posted. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Man With Beard]

32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Perfect nice and hot!!anywhere between 25-30 degrees for a week after adding a couple of degrees to the forecasted temps?

I think the ECM op is at the more extreme end, though

[Methuselah]

The heat is on...It's coming -- whether we like it or not! 

[ribster]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

The heat is on...It's coming -- whether we like it or not! 

And going by the looks of GFS this evening...

[sheikhy]

Make the most of the heat for the three days this week cos that is one ugly looking chart at 150 hours!!and i got a feeling the ecm will bring us back down to earth tomorrow!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Make the most of the heat for the three days this week cos that is one ugly looking chart at 150 hours!!and i got a feeling the ecm will bring us back down to earth tomorrow!!

Which chart? Can you post it... And as I've been told many many many many many many many many times myself .....stop getting so hung on charts beyond 72 hours. 

[DIS1970]

Thought that it would be short burst yesterday when i looking at various charts, not surprised, best to make the most of it, though still too many days ahead for any accuracy. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by DIS1970

[Mark wheeler]

Well you know what I’m glad Gfs shows this on the pub run . Why? Because One it’s Gfs and two It’s normally wrong .

Edited June 20, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Make the most of the heat for the three days this week cos that is one ugly looking chart at 150 hours!!and i got a feeling the ecm will bring us back down to earth tomorrow!!

 Not a chance that ECM will agree with the GFS 18z mate, you will probably find the GFS 0z won't even agree with it... Icon, Arpege and GEM looking hot for next Thursday.