Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    These are a few of the best perturbations this evening

    5_360_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.547ba27f8b0344fd6c5c88324af8f2f2.png   gens-2-0-324.thumb.png.128844e5ca89feb2d47c9cec070c913a.png   gens-6-0-384.thumb.png.4ae83f18b4d19b3fdcf0398cdc157b0c.png   gens-19-0-300.thumb.png.f5e8b34e52e5c06dc73704399a0fabae.png

    Also something interesting:

    One perturbation is showing extremely high uppers over N Africa, Spain and S Europe, with temperatures going off the scale in Spain.

    Obviously an extremely low possibility of this coming off but I haven't seen uppers this high since last summer!

    gens-17-0-384.thumb.png.e0d9f7d26e116f9a26b5551ac7645727.png

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Major difference between UKMO and GFS early on.

    30F79E43-DAA4-418C-8652-6779FB57AEE3.thumb.gif.1e6a9378fa2e890eadb3040021f64a99.gifFD2714F1-56C8-4555-B68F-A269DAA0023E.thumb.png.bbff69815dbd4d77bab6fb7b550a3ff5.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    UKMO the bad guy this morning with a major trough heading towards the U.K. GFS dry settled and increasingly warm. ICON & GEM have also switched places with the former going for the settled route and the later now far more troughy. GFS ensembles backing the ops run and not interested in the trough option. FI effectively down to 96-120hrs currently. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Major difference between UKMO and GFS early on.

    30F79E43-DAA4-418C-8652-6779FB57AEE3.thumb.gif.1e6a9378fa2e890eadb3040021f64a99.gifFD2714F1-56C8-4555-B68F-A269DAA0023E.thumb.png.bbff69815dbd4d77bab6fb7b550a3ff5.png

    UKMO is a concern. I’m very sceptical about the warm up whilst it’s showing this.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    What a nightmare. UKMO is disaster stations if it comes off. GEM has gone that route today, whereas gfs and ecm have gone settled. Who’d want to forecast anything!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well what a ghastly ukmo this morning you would have to be a brave man to bet against it at t96 to be honest. Also the gem has gone the ukmo route this morning. I know the gfs and ecm are showing a better picture but I’d expect them to fall into line this evening towards the ukmo solution. How many times did the ukmo trump the other models during winter. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM is on a knife edge, just as the trough is poised to strike pressure builds over Scandinavia to prevent it. So there a clear split UKMO & GEM verses GFS, ECM and ICON what a nightmare - I just flipped a coin, heads being trough, tails being warm! It came out tails so warm it is!! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Well what a ghastly ukmo this morning you would have to be a brave man to bet against it at t96 to be honest. Also the gem has gone the ukmo route this morning. I know the gfs and ecm are showing a better picture but I’d expect them to fall into line this evening towards the ukmo solution. How many times did the ukmo trump the other models during winter. 

    UKMO is not infallible though.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Well what a ghastly ukmo this morning you would have to be a brave man to bet against it at t96 to be honest. Also the gem has gone the ukmo route this morning. I know the gfs and ecm are showing a better picture but I’d expect them to fall into line this evening towards the ukmo solution. How many times did the ukmo trump the other models during winter. 

    Someone will be monumentally wrong...the gfs ensembles are almost 100% not dropping the trough down now.

    image.thumb.png.710e3f5b838f44ff57471b48244b90a9.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    About time the ECM ops was backed up by its ensembles. If the op run is warm outlier I’ll be pretty concerned about the route we may up going down. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    In all honesty I think week two is definitely trending to a large anticyclone to our north east, the major difference is how quickly dry conditions return to the U.K. and the subsequent depth of low heights to our south. The UKMO obviously will take longer, but even the GEM develops a drier picture, especially in the north. Some impressively long fetch easterlies developing, very warm too unlike those during the winter.

    image.png
    ECM chart but you can see that easterly flow from Asia on most models.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    11 hours ago, LRD said:

    Doesn't look any more threatening than the ECM op run did to be fair and look how that turned out.

    But I agree that if that low behaves differently then it will result in very different, cool and wet charts

    Well, I suspected that one Icelandic low could make all the difference. UKMO shows it heading over us (although I still think a day or two after their 144 chart, we'll still see it headed SW and the UK getting warmth anyway at about 192). GFS and ECM do not. And hugely different conditions result. depending on how one relatively small, innocuous-looking area of low pressure behaves

    Interesting stuff at the moment

    Edited by LRD
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The UKMO run is not quite the disaster some are making it out to be- the trough would eventually drop down over the Bay of Biscay and pull in some very warm air. I imagine that chart for Thursday would be very wet for southern areas though beforehand.

    The GFS and ECM reach a similar conclusion towards the end of the runs- both showing troughs to the west of Portugal, allowing very warm air to be dragged in off the continent.

    Still a lot to be decided but I think we can safely say that there will be a warm up next week.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    No.

    Never in December.

    It's June?

    prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.bb2df6c3d5f3606877c2c6a50ba81108.pngh500slp.thumb.png.7ae88e7561f9685136a4fc88b542b79f.png

    We need the rain - all the fields looking a bit straw like.

    Temps on the way back next weekend hopefully  - but I'm not looking that far.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    1BAFF45B-EA7F-435B-B4E7-99E161B0E1C2.thumb.png.ed9966731def0aca176fb94b14f475af.pngDF66CBD0-47E1-448C-949B-5AE5E2C46729.thumb.png.c02fe3f3903e30cb62f1a35f1ba03401.png

    ECM op is a bit generous again this morning and goes outside of the ensemble boundaries. Maybe we will eventually settle on a halfway house between this and the UKMO outcome?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    1BAFF45B-EA7F-435B-B4E7-99E161B0E1C2.thumb.png.ed9966731def0aca176fb94b14f475af.pngDF66CBD0-47E1-448C-949B-5AE5E2C46729.thumb.png.c02fe3f3903e30cb62f1a35f1ba03401.png

    ECM op is a bit generous again this morning and goes outside of the ensemble boundaries. Maybe we will eventually settle on a halfway house between this and the UKMO outcome?

    The ECM Ops run has been very poor recently, the mean is not as good as GFS either and a there is going to be quite big camp of the ensembles going for a trough scenario. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The ECM Ops run has been very poor recently, the mean is not as good as GFS either and a there is going to be quite big camp of the ensembles going for a trough scenario. 

    The lowest 500Mb heights at day 6 on the ecm ensembles are around 552dam. The UKMO this morning gets down to 540dam at the same time, so is much more extreme than even the bottom ECM member. Either way, as @Alderc says, the large downward spike in the 500mb ensembles on the 11th shows there is some ensemble support for a trough of sorts in there.....as well as the more settled op route.

    Edited by mb018538
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Thought I’d have a peep at how the charts are looking now, after a good week of nothing on the horizon at all.. 

    Suddenly now, it’s like we’ve gone back to 2003!! A rare easterly full of Continental warmth and instability, with some runs transitioning it into a very slack and juicy Euro/Spanish plume. About time!!! 

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    1BAFF45B-EA7F-435B-B4E7-99E161B0E1C2.thumb.png.ed9966731def0aca176fb94b14f475af.pngDF66CBD0-47E1-448C-949B-5AE5E2C46729.thumb.png.c02fe3f3903e30cb62f1a35f1ba03401.png

    ECM op is a bit generous again this morning and goes outside of the ensemble boundaries. Maybe we will eventually settle on a halfway house between this and the UKMO outcome?

    Not really sure that any would be like the UKMO at T120 or even T144 though looking at that.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    Not really sure that any would be like the UKMO at T120 or even T144 though looking at that.

    The 144 hour pressure is around 1007mb on the ukmo - the lowest ecm ensemble members get down to that on the 11th too. Might be similar in a fashion!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    16 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Thought I’d have a peep at how the charts are looking now, after a good week of nothing on the horizon at all.. 

    Suddenly now, it’s like we’ve gone back to 2003!! A rare easterly full of Continental warmth and instability, with some runs transitioning it into a very slack and juicy Euro/Spanish plume. About time!!! 

    Yes and two days ago we were going to be 'locked in' to a cool damp period extending to most of June ! (Not posted by you I hasten to add)

    If ever there was a reason to stop jumping on individual runs at 10 days this is it !

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Marked changes in the 500 mb charts from EC and GFS this morning. Quite different from what has gone before. NOAA doesnot shift from its idea on the 6-10 but does to some extent on its 8-14 so it is possible that the upper air pattern is about to start changing.

    Charts below including the NOAA 8-14. We need a couple of days tosee how all 3 develop.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Below the two NOAA charts, 6-10 on the left, I hope!

    Well nearly, 6-10 first and 8-14 below

     

    Edited by johnholmes
    charts
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The 144 hour pressure is around 1007mb on the ukmo - the lowest ecm ensemble members get down to that on the 11th too. Might be similar in a fashion!

    Yes you're correct, the 12z runs will be interesting as the UKMO is clearly given a very low possibility by the ECM & GEFS.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wow!!if ukmo trumps both gfs and ecm i really dunno what to say!!at only 120 hours as well!ukmo is not too bad to be fair anyway!!looks pretty delicious at 144 hours with the trough heading south and west and pressure building over!pretty wet 24 hours before that though!!ecm and gfs continue on their merry way to a heatwave?☀️?

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...