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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    That's my understanding - the polar vortex actually increases the reliability in winter. Summer lacks such clear drivers. 

    OK, here's a question since we're discussing this, why is the model performance in the SH seemingly random re season, when in the NH it is definitely not, same chart below as I posted for the NH above?

    image.thumb.jpg.8e2b1bcfd1b90646f10291e78d2fdcb7.jpg

    Hint? Maybe, but I still want to know what others think.  The SH has far fewer sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, that might have something to do with it?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Pleasing that the ECM 12z op wasn’t a big outlier, although it was one of the warmer members.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Icon 18z seems to have moved towards ecm in regards to that low near iceland!!high pressure nudging in a bit more from the atlantic as well!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I think this is the key point on GFS 18z, T132:

    image.thumb.jpg.08079574de1b90d7dc8edce4cd36642a.jpg

    What happens next,does the ridge move in as per GEM, does the trough dive in as per ECM, or does GFS do it's own thing...

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think this is the key point on GFS 18z, T132:

    image.thumb.jpg.08079574de1b90d7dc8edce4cd36642a.jpg

    What happens next,does the ridge move in as per GEM, does the trough dive in as per ECM, or does GFS do it's own thing...

    Is it me mike or does this look way better already compared to the 12z ecm?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes it's got that nose thing into the UK that wasn't there on the earlier run, T120 vs T126 on 12s

    image.thumb.jpg.03d0f2981cc3c1643ead12a708ada405.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.23ee8136e16f890aacce2695cc55eb12.jpg

    Meanwhile, how are our background signals doing?  Well AAM, as modelled by CFS looks like it's resurgent by mid month, looks a stronger signal all told than in recent days, that is a big positive:

    image.thumb.jpg.a29e601f40c694c75a7a0a6b215366b4.jpg

    With the warm sunny spell in May, the SSTs locally are now very warm:

    image.thumb.jpg.0d92b1a2904101524450dadb8bb3dce7.jpg

    And with that cold pool way out west, should, all other things being equal (and that is always the thing with uncertain systems) help drag the high pressures over us and to the east....as shown on  many of the 12z models, and increasingly so from yesterday, so summer is coming back, I would suggest....we will see....

    Could be though that the higher than usual winds over the next few days might mix up the surface and even out the SSTs a bit!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Is it me mike or does this look way better already compared to the 12z ecm?

    Think it is probably better shaky!!!!  T162:

    image.thumb.jpg.c72a2294fbbdbeaa0e794ee0e44fe62e.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Good to see the AAM climb back for mid-month in the CFSv2 model. GFS and ECM may have made similar corrections judging by today’s trend for the patterns N. Atlantic to Scandinavia.

    The westward-advancing heat theme has been lurking in the ensembles for a couple of days and has gained footing today. Uncertainty abound as to how stable or not the situation is across the UK - aside from broadly less likely to be unstable in the north.

    The typical response to AAM rising through neutral is to build ridging UK eastward so that may tend to relegate the troughs to mainland Europe - but not necessarily right away, could be that one makes some inroads next weekend only to retreat southward (the sort of thing GFS seems almost incapable of modelling in the extended range).

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 18z at T198:

    image.thumb.jpg.62a09d0ef9a6297a7f9edf7a76c357b1.jpg

    Total continental feed now, so will it be mainly hot and dry or hot and thundery from here?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet

    Astounding gfs 18z, best run I've seen in a while and we're not even at d10 yet - locked in heat from there, of note though seeing trough further southwest than any other runs this evening

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Slack very warm easterlies on pub run widespread European warmth like ECM 12z. The Scandinavian blocking might prove to be very important.

    F4DBF8B1-BC29-4053-A1DE-FA53877C9F4E.thumb.png.e987afee3af1588054ca4fd167bd26c8.pngF0362EA9-EDC1-4668-9E4C-D0356DB9EB09.thumb.png.ab47b0f016dddab8add8c447ef34d6f6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Jesus and we thought ecm was great!!pretty much the whole of europe in heatwave territory on the 18z!!surely to good to be true and downgrades on the way tomorrow?

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    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet

    Epic convective setup coming in just after d10 too..we can only dream. Will be hard pressed to find a much better heat + convective setup for early June than that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    If this run actually happened, this would be quite spectacular in mid June, GFS 18z, T258:

    image.thumb.jpg.a701edffadb01b989d9f5f66bd7cfaf0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.582334ed5ebb9f2dc7192b90758b1391.jpg

    Makes up for yesterday's 18z run, anyway!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Too much flip flopping from models at moment = extreme low confidence outside reliable ie 5 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Too much flip flopping from models at moment = extreme low confidence outside reliable ie 5 days.

    I think that was more true two days ago than it is now, I think the models are converging on something, not yet sure what, but it isn't a 2007 style rain fest, more a hot spell, but I'm totally unsure whether hot and dry or hot and thundery....we will see....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    Looking at the near term, I noted that the weekend low is described as “developing and deepening” in the North Sea. 
    Isn’t that unusual for the North Sea at any time, let alone June?

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    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Any news on ensembles?

    image.thumb.png.68ec844803b3a159af06be8766e36ac6.pngShock horror OP is an outlier..but considering the mean gets above 10C, what a great set I’d say. Remarkable agreement, but that can quickly get undone..

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Well, well, well... where do I start?

    Both the 12z and the 18z are exceptional GFS runs, the only thing is that the 18z is an outlier

    To the perturbations, a few are showing 16c uppers across the UK, meaning that temps in excess of 27c+ could be possible

    With lp out in the atlantic, this will help to drag warmer air from the continent, meaning not only will the temperatures increase - but the risk of thunderstorms too 

    All of this is quite far away though - so lots to play for.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I have a feeling the models have really overplayed the trough and unsettled week ahead and lead everyone down the dry garden path.  No way can we go from such dry and warm synoptic pattern into a really cold and wet prolonged autumnal pattern in just a matter of days.  May has been exceptional and something like that is not going to break away this quickly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Well, well, well... where do I start?

    Both the 12z and the 18z are exceptional GFS runs, the only thing is that the 18z is an outlier

    To the perturbations, a few are showing 16c uppers across the UK, meaning that temps in excess of 27c+ could be possible

    With lp out in the atlantic, this will help to drag warmer air from the continent, meaning not only will the temperatures increase - but the risk of thunderstorms too 

    All of this is quite far away though - so lots to play for.

    16c uppers = 27c?? not a chance. more likely 33c+ with 16c uppers in June and hopefully non of that north sea wind like last June. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Excellent runs this evening. It's getting better to look at. Still let's have a little caution going forward. Be more confident about next week after the weekend. Not 2 days ago charts were shocking for summer heat etc. It could all change by the morning. 

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