Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    5 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    You were saying mate?? Its best to follow a run throughout before making a final decision. 

    ECM1-144.gif

    He loves it to all go wrong.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wonderful at 168 hours!!high right through the uk!!ukmo odd one out tonight!!making the most of these cool showers over the next 2 days!!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    E80733BB-D285-4564-A3D3-3E938D0A788D.thumb.png.ece4dd2e5fb2ca2a6b766c88a150afdc.png
     

    Ridge hanging in there at day 7 - increasingly warmer too.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Perfect ECM at 168!

    ECM1-168.gif

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I think this one could still go downhill, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.ecd915baebfdd465e6149ba3b1a2fe1f.jpg

    This was the question I raised with the GEM would this trough dive south from Iceland, and it didn't on that run.  I'm not expecting to like the last two frames of this one...

    Edited by Mike Poole
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    High is till hanging in there at 192...

    ECM1-192.gif

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    He loves it to all go wrong.

    Yes the same few absolutely love commenting on poor output, each and every summer.

    We've had a lovely 12z, a not-so-good UKMO and a decent ECM so far. Given the volatility in the output (remember recent GFS/ECM operationals?) I'd treat any warmer and drier runs with just as much caution and scepticism as the wet and horrible ones. FI about t+120/144 do we think? Lots of variables still in play with the extremes favoured when something in between is probably the form horse.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    No it's all good, it missed us:

    image.thumb.jpg.40806cf03e2bc2b6e849075f2a860009.jpg

    Could trigger some kind of plume event from here, T850s decent already

    image.thumb.jpg.52f7902349460974998dec923063bffe.jpg

    Edited by Mike Poole
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Looks like a cut-off low developing at 216

    This could have a potential of bringing more warmer air and the risk of thunderstorms to the UK

    I do have a feeling this could change but we need to see what happens at 240...

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think this one could still go downhill, T192:

    image.thumb.jpg.ecd915baebfdd465e6149ba3b1a2fe1f.jpg

    This was the question I raised with the GEM would this trough dive south from Iceland, and it didn't on that run.  I'm not expecting to like the last two frames of this one...

    Probably irrelevant Mike, we are talking 9 days away, and the mean may have different ideas, as well as the 0z runs having a different take.. So much chopping and changing with these ops right now.. Yet GEM seems to be showing most consistency.. It still looks a marked improvement to me, and most definitely better than the current spell. We should remember what the pros say and not get to hung up on each and every operational run.. I think we have enough stress at present to deal with. ??

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.ac057ce4a3811d0e2622c171d785f719.png

    Did anyone expect a Scandi high and a very warm easterly at day 9? Cos I didn’t! What a run. Must be an outlier surely??

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all - had a few problems posting the charts last night so let's see if things are better as we see if the penguin suit will need an outing for Ascot:

    The T+240 charts for GFS OP, Control, GEM and ECM

    image.thumb.png.3d1c26c80f83c0c4dffcd0dc927602a0.pngimage.thumb.png.07386872824d14d6efb4eaf520a47719.pngimage.thumb.png.76c73061d2261082f22f8d4ef57498b2.pngimage.thumb.png.b428f8743669eeb1aa7ffedb7c12fe54.png

    Some similarities with pressure high to the north and north east but low to the south or south west so a north-south split but not the usual variety. The best of the weather for Scotland and northern Britain with the south closer to the European trough and more at risk from showers or storms. The east coast may suffer from haar but elsewhere pleasantly warm and indeed humid.

    GEM perhaps the best of the bunch but both GFS and ECM have some form of LP to the SW which may be good news further down the line for heat fans. The Atlantic is moribund.

    Edited by stodge
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.ac057ce4a3811d0e2622c171d785f719.png

    Did anyone expect a Scandi high and a very warm easterly at day 9? Cos I didn’t! What a run. Must be an outlier surely??

    GEFS has been teasing the prospect of a very warm feed of air from the east for a few runs now ? 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM @240 ???

    ECM1-240.gif

    What a run the 12z ECM is. Could be a possible outlier but just in case if it isn't, we could be in for something special...

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Now you see a potential SE-diving Icelandic trough...

    image.thumb.png.abf0fec22fe427fd15da3b613e5059a5.png

    Now you don't...

    image.thumb.png.ab1ee3fada255c1272ef660c82227fd1.png

    And leads to this...

    image.thumb.png.3524c835ec85daf53c7c05c2de50e2db.png

    Surprising

    image.thumb.png.b68e86cadfef9de8e3b6f78295a3d663.png

    Edited by LRD
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Cracking run from the ECM 

    and here at 240,lovely jubbly?

    ECM1-240.thumb.gif.ac5529d08e9c229c6a95a1d1585ccfab.gif

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Come back Alderc all is forgiven.. ? What a stunner... I've just fell off the bed.. 

    ECM1-216.gif

    ECM1-240.gif

    ECM0-240.gif

    200-1.gif

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Glorious run from EC this evening...

    ☀️

    Not to be a party pooper but nowhere near enough confidence to make a call on next week from my perspective..

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Easy folks, we’ve been led up the garden path many times!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm ties in almost perfect with temp plots....

    @southern up flow into continental feed...where warmth can be gained as much as the former....

     

    temp4 (5).png

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    High pressure from Russia all the way to the US. A "Trumputin" High?

    image.thumb.png.904560cc2a58e746c55398814ae202b0.png

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Easy folks, we’ve been led up the garden path many times!

    Yes,in winter?

    seriously though,you are right?

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...