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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

38DD62B2-DDE6-4706-9201-70847B13F77A.thumb.png.e13b4ee07511d53d6ce4ffb6c2d9b0eb.png0B972A3A-0F01-4FC3-9F2F-CDDB7D4333F2.thumb.png.9ed08181be2241de72e0700bf5dd194a.png
 

Massive outlier again - mean is much better as @Ice Day states above. How very unhelpful!

I can understand the odd outlier but the EC det has been a huge outlier by day 9 and 10 for the last number of days.

Very confusing.

On a brighter note plenty of warm useable weather on offer over the next 7 days or so with a few storms thrown in for good measure,perhaps..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
22 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

So ECM op mainly at the bottom of the pack, then a raging outlier at the end. But I’m still tempted to back it for the week ahead.

I suspect we will fall between the two as usual. Not as good as UKMO, but not as dreadful as the ECM. Who’d be a forecaster eh!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I can understand the odd outlier but the EC det has been a huge outlier by day 9 and 10 for the last number of days.

Very confusing.

On a brighter note plenty of warm useable weather on offer over the next 7 days or so with a few storms thrown in for good measure,perhaps..

Beyond day 7/8 is just for fun on all op output .....  adopting that adage will see less confusion! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Beyond day 7/8 is just for fun on all op output .....  adopting that adage will see less confusion! 

True, but the number of op outliers seems to be more than ever in the past few months!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Just now, sheikhy said:

Any reason why ecm keeps churning out outliers!!is to due to the disagreement on tha AAM?

Not really - just dealing with splitting the energy differently. The GFS below cuts a low off from the main jet, so it stays more settled for longer. ECM phases them together and keeps a stronger westerly push. UKMO looks to be closer to the GFS at 144, but difficult to say.

 

 A7491F14-4729-4C27-ABB0-E82153C5A7C9.thumb.jpeg.f6c53555ccd16c7dae3bdecae34bc157.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not really - just dealing with splitting the energy differently. The GFS below cuts a low off from the main jet, so it stays more settled for longer. ECM phases them together and keeps a stronger westerly push. UKMO looks to be closer to the GFS at 144, but difficult to say.

 

 A7491F14-4729-4C27-ABB0-E82153C5A7C9.thumb.jpeg.f6c53555ccd16c7dae3bdecae34bc157.jpeg

Really want the gfs and ukmo to be correct but i got horrible feeling ecm is correct!!its soo close to cutting off the low as well!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well, I’m certainly no expert but to me the GEFS 0z mean is looking preety good in the mid range..and looking further ahead, as I mentioned yesterday I’m seeing either a north / south..northwest / southeast split which is preety normal in a u k summer!..in the meantime we have a warm and humid thundery set-up to enjoy / endure depending on your point of view!☀️?️

A13C5608-40FD-404A-9554-0B2C427EBF7D.thumb.png.2b9cafed39f71519fe60f7fea786ebb2.png806F52C6-CD63-4D7D-B00C-67E9B5E5FF60.thumb.png.ec2a5c3902cea6f7bf104ed5841f93c1.pngD14D22AE-1E2C-4E20-85CA-8138316463C5.thumb.png.b8d3c25b7554f5cc50685855e125041b.pngF0D254B0-4233-4F1A-AFE3-38F6A6CC2DBF.thumb.gif.b59b0070e90880bfd84f7f090ba7842f.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Beyond day 7/8 is just for fun on all op output .....  adopting that adage will see less confusion! 

But it is day 6/7 that is the catalyst for what happens 'down the line'...

BBC monthly has updated and broadbrush seems to be a NW/SE split...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

But it is day 7 that is the catalyst for what happens 'down the line'...

Precisely - the output for day 7 is the limit of what’s reasonable  .........the reasons for day 8/9/10 being v different will have happened way earlier in the run ......every run is different of course but the 00z runs are clearly representative of uncertain output 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Precisely - the output for day 7 is the limit of what’s reasonable  .........the reasons for day 8/9/10 being v different will have happened way earlier in the run ......every run is different of course but the 00z runs are clearly representative of uncertain output 

Ive just had a brief exchange with Marco Petanga, the operative word being temporary , in relation to the settled route...

Hmmmm.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive just had a brief exchange with Marco Petanga, the operative word being temporary , in relation to the settled route...

Hmmmm.

 

I’d agree with Marco - anything settled is going to be brief before low pressure generally takes hold once again. Once that happens you just need to get lucky! From an IMBY we are seeing that here this weekend - low pressure dominating, but a fine sunny weekend up to 25c possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, aye...GFS 06Z is okay until at least Day 5::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm all rather unclear at present how things may pan out as we move into the latter third of June, differences between ECM and GFS/UKMO all courtesy of how they model the jetstream.

GFS wants to split it, with energy transferring into the northern arm, allowing a weak cut off low development which will become squeezed by the strong ridge to the east. The outcome generally fine warm conditions.

ECM wants to develop more of the cut off low feature phasing with the main trough and maintaining a rather unsettled outlook.

Perhaps best to say 50/50 both scenarios verifying at this range.

In the reliable, humid air this weekend, chance of thundery outbreaks in places. Into next week further risk of showers, localised in nature but possibly thundery. Temps a bit above average, but no real heat to speak of.

Turning into a very mixed June.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS looks just about the best run of summer so far...still warm and settled right through next weekend and the following week.

How i wish EC would follow that this evening !!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks just about the best run of summer so far...still warm and settled right through next weekend and the following week.

How i wish EC would follow that this evening !!

 

 

The atmosphere is very fluid and I'd suspect the changes over the next 48hrs on the models and nhp will change considerably NW.All that said GFS 6z is a great run

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, aye, aye...All is well, on Planet GFS, until at least Day 10::clap:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Now is not the time for pretending we can accurately predict the weather, 12 Days in advance, methinks?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

F8CD6A35-EDAC-4841-AEAE-883847A9831B.thumb.png.03dc38f785003dfa56fc17630a214571.png

ECM says no to gfs - trough close by and not split at all. This is a bit of a nightmare!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

TBH, I don't think the odds of the GFS 06Z's 16-day outlook materialising are all that high; it all looks too 'static' for too long? Having said that, the FV3 made some astounding predictions, during 2019 (record-breaking temps in February, April? June, July and August) that, though subjected to the usual ridicule, all proved correct...

But, as any 'successful' gambler (or shyster, conman or financial whizzkid) will vociferously deny...runs of pure good luck can and do happen!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

PS: What I forgot to say, however, is that runs of pure good luck also invariably run out!:shok:

 

Edited by General Cluster
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