Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[swfc]

I actually think the EC is pretty good tbh.dry ,bright and looks better than this morning early doors.do me anyway,time for a can

Edited June 12, 2020 by swfc

[mb018538]

As @Man With Beard pointed out this morning, the largest ecm cluster still had the trough more prominent at 144....be nice if they all sang from the same page!

[Zak M]

216 looks thundery

[swfc]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

As @Man With Beard pointed out this morning, the largest ecm cluster still had the trough more prominent at 144....be nice if they all sang from the same page!

I agree but it's the UK

[mb018538]

Im going to call this op run a stinking outlier. Bet the house on it. Next week looks decent enough on ukmo and gfs. ECM has all that rain coming down. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM = GEM T240

quite a standoff, am in virtual pub at moment, may try to investigate later.

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, swfc said:

I actually think the EC is pretty good tbh.dry ,bright and looks better than this morning early doors.do me anyway,time for a can

Good for more rain

UK low at day 10 takes us to the 22nd. Little sign of Summer in Summer yet.

[Mike Poole]

Well at T144 we have two camps, GFS and UKMO want to ridge nicely from the Azores:

and GEM and ECM that don't:

Rewind to T120, and here it is more graded differences, GEM worst, then ECM, then UKMO then GFS best:

Look at the colours not the contours, on GFS the link up is there on the oranges, on GEM not even the yellows meet.   This is where FI sits, T120, everything else depends on whether this ridge bridges the gap or not, and I'm afraid more runs are needed.  But it is very interesting watching the models at the moment!

Edit: Charts correct now.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

I'm at the point of giving up trying to forecast next week! One minute is dry and sunny on the models, the next minute it's back to dodging the showers! Definitely going to be a week where checking in the morning is the only sure way of making a forecast - if there's no rain coming, consider the BBQ instead! 

[northwestsnow]

GFS and UKMO look fab ..

EC , no thanks, don't fancy the jet slipping south..

Hoping EC is an outlier to be honest..

[Leo97t]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS and UKMO look fab ..

EC , no thanks, don't fancy the jet slipping south..

Hoping EC is an outlier to be honest..

It's not the outlier the Mean supports it. The jet just looks like its becoming very flat. I think that so long as the UKMO is going for the more amplified set up its possible. I think that it will swing to the ECM tomorrow though. Not too bad for the south

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble T144, mean and spread

T240:

I think the spreads say it all, massive uncertainty about the ridge or diving trough.  I reckon about 55% on the ridge! but we will have to wait for the clusters to determine that.  The uncertainty rages on....

[mb018538]

ECM tonight far too unsettled as we thought. On to tomorrow morning then....

[northwestsnow]

Massive outlier....

Getting as bad as GFS with these outliers now !!

Onto tomorrow then..

Edited June 12, 2020 by northwestsnow

[stodge]

Evening all

Chance to have a look at the evening output after another curious day weather wise here in East London. An ESE'ly wind with a lot of cloud but no significant rain. 

Looking ahead to next weekend and beyond what do the T+216 charts offer us this evening?

Charts for Sunday June 21st from ECM, GEM, GFS Control and GFS OP

Fairly easy to spot the odd model out and that's Control. The others are all bringing or have brought LP in from the Atlantic with ECM having a broad but shallow trough and GEM (as is often the case) a deeper and more defined LP centre over Ireland. GFS OP has a weak ridge but that is declining as a shallow LP moves in from the NW. Control is very different with a ridge from the Azores HP over NW Britain and a weak NE'ly flow over eastern areas. Most places would be fine with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly warm but that does look the outsider.

Moving on, ECM T+240 is the GEM chart at T+216 above while GEM (and this might be a concern) has the LP stationary over the British Isles. If we get an LP filling in situ over several days that provides a good environment for showers or storms with all that follow.

Control puts the British Isles in the battleground between troughs to the east and west and ridges to the north and south. The south does pretty well hanging on to fine weather but western coasts would see rain.

OP is oddly enough a much better picture in further FI. The LP tries to come SE but is repulsed as the Azores HP builds in a ridge across southern Britain - the LP ends up spinning impotently to the far NW as the ridge builds through the British Isles keeping the weather fine and settled. Warm yes, indeed pleasantly so but not hot as the orientation of the ridge keeps the heat well to the south. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I didn't even bother posting on that op.. Yet again the operationals are leaving alot to be desired. So we have GFS UKMO, and the ECM mean looking pretty good.. It may have been an hard day's graft, but it was worth it in the end. Extended mean to day 14 looks pretty good also. 

Wow guys, I've not posted since last night and it's took me ages to catch up with all your posts.. My reaction button is going 2 to the dozen... Brill stuff as always though...

Edited June 12, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Massive outlier....

Getting as bad as GFS with these outliers now !!

Isn't it just! Noted quite a few major outliers from both models during this week. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Massive outlier....

Getting as bad as GFS with these outliers now !!

Onto tomorrow then..

It's not an outlier until day 10 where the op lies well outside of the ensemble grouping (sorry to be a pedant :P).

Edited June 12, 2020 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not an outlier until day 10 where the op lies well outside of the ensemble grouping (sorry to be a pedant :P).

Thats OK

Perhaps i was a little broadbrush,it was at the low end of the spread mid term then a rank outlier by the end.

Either way i would be much more comfortable with a better det..

[Mike Poole]

36 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Isn't it just! Noted quite a few major outliers from both models during this week. 

Yes, it justs highlights the uncertainty at the moment, and it is here that it helps if there is a direction of travel from background signals, it means we can kind of weed out model runs that have gone off beam.  To that end here's the current CFS AAM plot:

The turnaround starts in the next two days and should promote ridging further east, but how quickly to make difference, difficult to tell.   And SSTs, here's the latest analysis:

Its a bit more mixed now, after the recent spell, yes still warm from Azores to here, and colder out west on average, but that sharp contrast a few weeks ago is dissolving, here same chart 24 May:

Which is why we need the AAM to come good soon, if it does, the SSTs will reinforce the pattern, and we will be back to largely settled conditions like we saw in May, for a period of time.  We will see...

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats OK

Perhaps i was a little broadbrush,it was at the low end of the spread mid term then a rank outlier by the end.

Either way i would be much more comfortable with a better det..

Personally I'm looking forward to a few days of diurnally driven convection next week. Would be good to see a few thunderstorms.

I always call the Azores HP the 'weather killer'

Edited June 12, 2020 by CreweCold

[Mike Poole]

I think it is fair to say ICON 18z is going for the ridge scenario, T 120:

[Downburst]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Personally I'm looking forward to a few days of diurnally driven convection next week. Would be good to see a few thunderstorms.

I always call the Azores HP the 'weather killer'

Yep, no wonder the homicide rate is so low in Ireland, heaven for weather here.

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM = GEM T240

quite a standoff, am in virtual pub at moment, may try to investigate later.

Oh crap hope I didn’t jinx things by posting it earlier

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh crap hope I didn’t jinx things by posting it earlier

No I think both GEM and ECM were outliers.  Let's see what the socially distanced pub run shows...