Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mike Poole]

Decent run first out from the ICON:

GFS 0z parallel lands up in a similar place at T192:

[sheikhy]

Well would you believe it ukmo 12z joins gfs in a more settled and warm outlook into next week!!absolute madness with the models recently!!!

[swfc]

Great ukmo and gfs.next week settling down nicely hopefully

Edited June 12, 2020 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

Marvellous UKMO 

Azores high on the move, and that classic conveyor belt look about it...

GFS also looking brilliant  ...

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z is nae bad at Day 9 -- warm and mostly sunny:

         

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by General Cluster

[Zak M]

Yep very good UKMO @144

[Methuselah]

Might even go out with a bang...Yee Haw!

    

[mb018538]

As others have said - looking pretty good from about Thursday onwards as higher pressure makes a move in. This may only be a short lived affair for a few days, but very welcome none the less. I suspect a few areas will need a good few dry days to get rid of all this rainfall we’ve had!

[Ice Day]

What a great start to the weekend.  Finished work, cracked open a beer and viewed a couple of corking UKMO and GFS runs.  Warm, sunny and *potentially* stormy right through to next weekend.  Temps for Monday through Wednesday showing as high teens to low/mid 20's, with a slack wind.  Superb 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As others have said - looking pretty good from about Thursday onwards as higher pressure makes a move in. This may only be a short lived affair for a few days, but very welcome none the less. I suspect a few areas will need a good few dry days to get rid of all this rainfall we’ve had!

This may be the first signs of the much talked about improvements for the final third of the month.

[Guest]

I guess GFS isn't for the bin after all. Who'd have thunk it? 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

I guess GFS isn't for the bin after all. Who'd have thunk it? 

ECM needs to back it up first!

[northwestsnow]

Looks nice and warm in the Manchester area on GFS with temps 20-24 tomorrow onwards really...

Few showers and hopefully the odd storm thrown in for good measure.

Hoping we get a nice EC det and mean later...

[Guest]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

ECM needs to back it up first!

00z wasn't too bad for the same timeframe so it hopefully won't be too much of a stretch for it to line up with GFS and UKMO this evening. Fingers crossed  

[mb018538]

They are all nicely aligned for once, so we can have better confidence that it’ll improve as next week goes on.

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

This may be the first signs of the much talked about improvements for the final third of the month.

Some improvements I agree, but I’d expect the last week to still be fairly unsettled at this stage. Hoping I’m wrong of course.

[Methuselah]

Goodness, gracious me! Can things really be this good -- right out to Day 12?

    

Not another potentially thundery breakdown?! Kent Clipper?

    

Edited June 12, 2020 by General Cluster

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

They are all nicely aligned for once, so we can have better confidence that it’ll improve as next week goes on.

Some improvements I agree, but I’d expect the last week to still be fairly unsettled at this stage. Hoping I’m wrong of course.

I’m still pinning my hopes that the AAM has the impact which has been touted.

If that’s the case, we can expect improvements in the NWP as they latch on to the signal.

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m still pinning my hopes that the AAM has the impact which has been touted.

If that’s the case, we can expect improvements in the NWP as they latch on to the signal.

CFS is going all in on AAM rising sharply into July. ECM not so keen at the moment. Let’s hope so! 

[Singularity]

Big deal to see UKMO move more or less in line with GFS, as it was among the furthest north with the lingering low out of the 00z runs.

ECM 00z was broadly similar to how the UKMO 12z has turned out.

If the ECM 12z maintains the theme, it will be time to start contemplating - not too seriously, mind - what might be possible if we can build enough of a ridge across the UK-Scandinavia region ahead of the next major trough trying to move across from the North Atlantic. Outcome next weekend could be very soggy... or very toasty.

[swfc]

I think most would bank the gfs12z.something for everyone from start to finish

[Mark wheeler]

Great to come on here and see the improvements and looking forward to some nice weather here at least in the next few days .

However the Gem is and my favourite Navgem didn’t even run on the 6z for some reason , BOO .

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS ens are not bad at all, barring two days at c.15-17C:

    

    

Could do with a tad more rain, however?

[Mike Poole]

ECM T 120 v UKMO 

maybe half a day or so behind on this run?

@Mark wheeler YEs GEM is awful, unpostable!  

Edited June 12, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Hmm. ECM not as good as the other 2 tonight at day 5/6. Surface pressure lower and upper trough not really ejected nicely like UKMO and GFS. Consequence of this is 1-2 inches of rain in 3/4 days, wettest in the West, driest east. Hoping for an outlier here!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm. ECM not as good as the other 2 tonight at day 5/6. Surface pressure lower and upper trough not really ejected nicely like UKMO and GFS. Consequence of this is 1-2 inches of rain in 3/4 days, wettest in the West, driest east. Hoping for an outlier here!

Needs to be an outlier otherwise it’s probably curtains for next week. When UKMO and ECM disagree, it’s nearly always the most unsettled model that is correct. I have no scientific evidence for this, but experience tells me it’s true.