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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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12 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Looking very very decent from Sat-tuesday in the SE with sunny spells and thunderstorms. The humidity will make it feel higher than the 22-24C. After that no idea.

Saturday/Sunday could see unbroken sunshine in places if the BBC forecast is right and cloud cover is the one thing I rate them for

I'm certainly looking forward to the Saturday-Tuesday period down here on the south coast. Those showers that passed through earlier were certainly potent.  Looking further ahead the rest of next week could bring anything, but looking at the charts I would suggest the south coast may very well fair well and Royal Ascot (minus them) will be a fair weather meeting.  

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Certainly a very fine ecm towards day 8 onwards - as I posted this morning on the clusters, the end of next week is decent as the ecm sees it, and has some support.

Another stand off? At day 8 none of the gfs ensemble members are above 1020mb.

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It would be cruel and ironic if the GFS is correct, now that it shows an inferior outcome.

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Super day! 25 plus degrees Manchester S/E wards, but 240 chart hmm, looks like could be bad away from the SE?

ECM1-216.GIF?11-0

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Things look great come day 8,yet look dodgy come day 10...thats a long way off though.. Let's get the fine spell in first then worry about that later. 

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

200-2.gif

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6D1C1790-6BAD-4B96-92F4-22C3098A7BB0.thumb.gif.fae68bd16ea5da86349767ee8230224e.gifC7770051-7E91-4750-9E19-8D106F1D8449.thumb.png.9e45e22dda0466b02b2f0de4d23a088c.png
 

ECM day 9 op is very close to the d9 cluster from this morning. A bit of much needed consistency.

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6D1C1790-6BAD-4B96-92F4-22C3098A7BB0.thumb.gif.fae68bd16ea5da86349767ee8230224e.gifC7770051-7E91-4750-9E19-8D106F1D8449.thumb.png.9e45e22dda0466b02b2f0de4d23a088c.png
 

ECM day 9 op is very close to the d9 cluster from this morning. A bit of much needed consistency.

Yes, good call, I wonder if we need to endure this one last low before sustainable ridging from the Azores takes hold as AAM rebounds?

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Really good ECM tonight, whilst it's not showing any extreme temperatures (which is fine by me), there's a lot of very 'usable' weather coming up.  Slack winds through early next week will make it feel very warm in any sunshine.  

And if the GFS is to be believed... ?  ... there's increased CAPE aplenty next week (this for Tuesday and Wednesday) so chances of storms cropping up almost anywhere.  Pretty much perfect summer weather in my book!

image.thumb.png.61b536292a643c56e833cf6ff6bb9118.pngimage.thumb.png.35209e83a24890342c47e43d76795274.png  

 

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean still painting a positive picture towards day 10.

Here T192, 240:

image.thumb.jpg.295485394702d823595f7cc234da79bd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0377630ed71655abdd87991b9f2a3b48.jpg

The signal for a ridge to dominate in UK region at this timescale has  been shown on several ECM means recently, I think it is latching on to the signal from the AAM, with the wave pattern in the NH pushing high heights our way at last....we will see....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Maybe a few hints of a positive pattern change on tonight's ECM. Let's see if the 00z can back this up.

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

yes, yes, yes - that was some storm earlier today!!! 33mm fell in little over 30 minutes, and I only caught about half of the heavy stuff!! So heavy that sewage started coming up through the drains near here ??

oh sorry it's the MOD thread, back on topic! what on earth happened on the ECM tonight? This trough is either seriously independent minded, or very indecisive! First I saw rumours on twitter that it might take on tropical storm features as it hits North Spain later today (sounds impossible!). Then it comes back across Biscay tomorrow and spends the weekend in a b&b in Cornwall. For the past 36 hours it looked like being swallowed up by the Atlantic low but, no, tonight's ECM has it heading back into Europe again!! 

ECM1-120.GIF?11-0  ECM1-144.GIF?11-0  ECM1-168.GIF?11-0

It would mean a whole week of warmish weather with storm threat. I think many of here would be pretty pleased with that.

So it ain't just the GFS that's disappearing up its own harce, then!:gathering:

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Mean is very good....

Det will likely be an outlier late on...

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ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

7EF924D7-67E8-447C-BEDD-CAFC531B9612.png

85CE8BDC-F5A8-4E70-AC3C-BEE869D32D45.png

3657C42E-0A52-424E-874F-DF6106E00C83.png

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13 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

7EF924D7-67E8-447C-BEDD-CAFC531B9612.png

85CE8BDC-F5A8-4E70-AC3C-BEE869D32D45.png

3657C42E-0A52-424E-874F-DF6106E00C83.png

ICON has been fairly consistent in following the trends of the ECM/UKMO etc as of late, so for it to spring onto a new idea makes me question if it is actually onto something.

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16 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

ICON with some fairly big changes earlier in the run and then drops the LP and trough southwards into Spain by +120. Very different from its other runs today. 

Stronger ridging earlier on causing a linkup between the high out west and to our north east.

7EF924D7-67E8-447C-BEDD-CAFC531B9612.png

85CE8BDC-F5A8-4E70-AC3C-BEE869D32D45.png

3657C42E-0A52-424E-874F-DF6106E00C83.png

So Is this going to be one of the usual 18z run wind ups or are we about to witness the biggest turnaround at T96 so far this year?;)

icon-2-90.thumb.png.ee544e081ce5c47366664e9c24f3975c.pngicon-9-90.thumb.png.5f408e1639ce06b5313ae1e6440141e9.png

icon-2-117.thumb.png.ab8fb739049cbe22397be13896020dea.pngicon-9-117.thumb.png.c98c950afe9f42770b5b73d1afe85776.png

?

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Icon is almost certainly taking some of it's data from the gfs 18z, so let's see what it's about to dish up, a temporary return to summer until the 00z runs? Or maybe, just maybe.....:oldrolleyes:

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Icon is almost certainly taking some of it's data from the gfs 18z, so let's see what it's about to dish up, a temporary return to summer until the 00z runs? Or maybe, just maybe.....:oldrolleyes:

Maybe the pubs have opened unexpectedly and the ICON is taking advantage!

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