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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The only good thing at this point is no monster northern blocking is showing at present. It can still be unsettled without it - as demonstrated in June thus far - but that usually seals the deal.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS and Euro certainly painting an unsettled if not cool long run picture as the ridge building early next week fails to hold.

    spacer.png


     

     

    image.png

     

     

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Some posts hidden, please keep to model discussion. If you want to have a moan, do it in the correct thread please?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON 12z:

    anim_bcy2.gif

    Pretty unsettled there, but I do wonder if it is in the day 8-10 range that we could see higher pressure build, looks poised at the end there.

    ECM parallel 0z finished here T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.92457ddf9c601baefd7b797f18b2eed7.jpg

    This would tie in with the resurgence in AAM, which actually looks a bit more pronounced on CFS today:

    image.thumb.jpg.c473cf323d9e6177b09500f9fc773c36.jpg

    So it is the day 8-12 sort of period I think we may now be looking at for a marked improvement.  Bit later than the mid month we thought, but no disaster nonetheless.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 12z:

    anim_bcy2.gif

    Pretty unsettled there, but I do wonder if it is in the day 8-10 range that we could see higher pressure build, looks poised at the end there.

    ECM parallel 0z finished here T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.92457ddf9c601baefd7b797f18b2eed7.jpg

    This would tie in with the resurgence in AAM, which actually looks a bit more pronounced on CFS today:

    image.thumb.jpg.c473cf323d9e6177b09500f9fc773c36.jpg

    So it is the day 8-12 sort of period I think we may now be looking at for a marked improvement.  Bit later than the mid month we thought, but no disaster nonetheless.

    Been keeping an eye on that mike....I personally think it may be more last week/end of June for any potential improvements with the lagged response to momentum potentially rising. That’s a long way off though, let’s see what the here and now says.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    5 hours ago, MP-R said:

    This return of the westerlies is not exclusive to June. It can be applied to any time of the year when a non-westerly period has lasted for several weeks and the Atlantic returns. In fact, June is not a good month to link these two as this very fall in momentum has turned the tables the other way and we are getting easterlies.

    There’s about as much consistency in the ‘June monsoon’ (terrible label) and April showers.

    Back to the models, and I’m seeing very mid/late August type synoptics ie warm and at least showers if not wet at times. Not quite the UK high that I associate with June and has contributed to it being my sunniest month of the year on average.

    blank.jpg
    WWW.GOOGLE.COM

    The so-called ‘European Monsoon’ is not actually a monsoon at all. It is more an ill-defined phenomenon that generally applies to a return of...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Apart from parts of the SW and coasts of NE England and Scotland, Saturday looks like be a very pleasant affair:?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Certainly preferable to having your face whipped with a wet fish, anyway!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, FetchCB said:
    blank.jpg
    WWW.GOOGLE.COM

    The so-called ‘European Monsoon’ is not actually a monsoon at all. It is more an ill-defined phenomenon that generally applies to a return of...

     

    Have read this before. The bottom paragraph says it all... Some years the weeks and months before are westerly anyway, and other years the westerlies don't come back after an already-lengthy period of non-westerlies. Too erratic to be given any credence.

    Incidentally, a return of the westerlies wouldn't be a bad idea right now if the jet can make it to its summer position above the UK, and positively tilted. A few runs have hinted at that well into FI, albeit with differing evolutions to such an outcome.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Next week is starting to shape up to be very poor again. Upper trough, low pressure and rain moving in and cooler air starting to dig back In off the Atlantic. Suppose for balance I should add that if you like all of the above then it’ll be a lovely week.

    Still potential for an end of week improvement with a ridge perhaps extending up, but otherwise the rain and cloudfest set to continue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Looking pretty unsettled until at least the final tercile of June now, in month where in theory 450-500hrs of sunshine is available I think if anywhere gets to 200 this month they'll be doing exceptionally well given the outlook. Hopefully we can get some fun out of the potential thundery conditions n the next 36hrs before it becomes a bit troughy again next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    A couple of days ago, there was a strong Scandinavia HP shown which has now all but vanished.

    Think we need a kick from the Atlantic to get out of this rut. That lovely spring counts for nothing now. ?

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Next week is starting to shape up to be very poor again. Upper trough, low pressure and rain moving in and cooler air starting to dig back In off the Atlantic. Suppose for balance I should add that if you like all of the above then it’ll be a lovely week.

    Still potential for an end of week improvement with a ridge perhaps extending up, but otherwise the rain and cloudfest set to continue.

    okay up to Thursday on GFS, Sat to Wed look good with max temps around 22C, mins around 15, so quite summery

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    okay up to Thursday on GFS, Sat to Wed look good with max temps around 22C, mins around 15, so quite summery

    I don’t agree sorry! Look at the accumulated ppn between Monday and Friday....40-60mm more rain in 5 days. It’s going to be soggy, perhaps a tad warmer than this week, but all a bit academic if it’s chucking it down ?

    AAC12411-CCC0-4CB6-97FE-BF2F245A314D.thumb.gif.f678d38d6011724adeee868f4f11cc4c.gif02EC19AF-0EDB-4929-9DC1-77DB59C8EB1D.thumb.gif.c3b6c30b96bf04f1084923f5d3ded56a.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

     

    42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Next week is starting to shape up to be very poor again. Upper trough, low pressure and rain moving in and cooler air starting to dig back In off the Atlantic. Suppose for balance I should add that if you like all of the above then it’ll be a lovely week.

    Still potential for an end of week improvement with a ridge perhaps extending up, but otherwise the rain and cloudfest set to continue.

    Still looks mostly like a slack trough, with heavy showers and perhaps thunderstorms bubbling up each day to me (though GFS seems to merge these into something more organised through Wednesday night).

    ukcapeli.pngukcapeli.png

    Not something we've seen much of recently, and many on this forum (if maybe not this thread) might not complain about that.

    So locally variable rainfall totals that add up in the accumulation charts, but it's not as if it's going to be days of frontal rain, or there will be no sun. Temperatures on the whole don't look below average either.

    Met Office (model derived automatic) forecast doesn't look bad either for your location.
    cambridge.thumb.png.3ab9f40f1553ff676ad8d7eade06c766.png
    (Average June high 19.9C or 20.4C depending on station)

    The SW may be one of the cooler areas next week but don't think it will be too bad for me.

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I’ll be amazed if the week is that fine @Evening thunder. Those computer generated forecasts never fill me with too much optimism, but ill gladly hold my hands up next Friday if it’s been as decent as that. I think the rainfall totals stem from heavy showers bubbling up and not moving too fast in a slack pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I’ll be amazed if the week is that fine @Evening thunder. Those computer generated forecasts never fill me with too much optimism, but ill gladly hold my hands up next Friday if it’s been as decent as that. I think the rainfall totals stem from heavy showers bubbling up and not moving too fast in a slack pattern.

    Must admit, it looked slightly better than I thought it would too... Not quite so good here with 17-19C every day, although 19C is my average and the forecast sometimes seems to under-estimate temps a bit here.

    I guess it depends what kind of weather you want and how important staying dry all day is, some places will get a lot more rain than others!

    I suppose as it's subject to change fronts could get stuck in the circulation more than currently shown.. I hope not though. UKMO possibly little more 'northwesterly' than GFS at t+144, but I think still 'sunshine and showers' (not quite sure without seeing the rainfall charts).
    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Aye, I've seen many a worse run than that GFS 12Z, in my time: spells of strong sunshine, warmish temps, light winds -- and plenty of convective fun thrown in for good measure!?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the op almost follows the mean, until Day 11.

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    And, now for something completely different: the ECM!?:yahoo:

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    Looking very very decent from Sat-tuesday in the SE with sunny spells and thunderstorms. The humidity will make it feel higher than the 22-24C. After that no idea.

    Saturday/Sunday could see unbroken sunshine in places if the BBC forecast is right and cloud cover is the one thing I rate them for

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.3fbafdb3e6afb92478d4797741804c9e.jpg

    GFS and UKMO at same time:

    image.thumb.jpg.02480d8aeb7820d04448e5ae083cd8c6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b3b97cba56f0f893f45495dd2d28d185.jpg

    ECM more with UKMO than GFS and even more positive for an - eventual - ridge of high pressure, think it will be post day 8 though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECMs conclusion is the low currently to the south of us never escapes and rejoins the main arm of the jet stream, it is eventually by day 7 sunk deeper into Europe with high pressure building over the top. So several days of sunshine and showers, some places favoured for sunnier weather, probably an issue with low cloud/fog near certain coasts.

    Whilst the models may show low pressure nearby, the surface conditions are far from the likes of 2012. Temperatures a little above average and light winds will feel summery if you escape the showers. 

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    looks better! hiccup though tues/wed where Midlands looks dull

    ECM1-168.GIF?11-0

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looks an improvement on the 00z run...

    Azores high to ridge or not to ridge !!

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