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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Not a bad mean, more especially across Central Southern and SE areas.. High pressure looks to be ridging nicely later next week. Looks a little more unsettled towards the NW and generally cooler. 

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    I think that is actually a very good mean, and backs up the means and clusters for the 0z and yesterday's 12z as a quite strong signal for an Azores ridge,   If we are accepting that all the  models are underperforming at the moment, chance for ECM to justify its position as top dog?

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    I think that is actually a very good mean, and backs up the means and clusters for the 0z and yesterday's 12z as a quite strong signal for an Azores ridge,   If we are accepting that all the  models are underperforming at the moment, chance for ECM to justify its position as top dog?

    100% agree with you there Mike.. I've been following the ECM mean out to day 14 for the past few days, and it's being consistent with a gradual rise in pressure. NW/SE  split looks a distinct possibility as far as I'm concerned Mike.. But looks very pleasent further South.. ☀️?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    My take on the 12Z runs... 

    I'm starting to get worried that we may fall into the Scandi High / Azores High "death trough" scenario. This is where pressure is high to the west, pressure is high to the east, and consequently low pressures get squeezed in the middle, and that tiny spot (on a global scale) gets plagued with low after low, slow moving because it is boxed in on all sides, while all around experiences the joys of summer. 

    A few days ago, it looked possible we would get just on the right side, but the ECM and UKMO increasing have this slack point nearer to the UK, even in the ECM ensembles tonight. 

    You have to be so unlucky to get into this spot, but it does often seem to be the UK, and there's a danger we will be in that place for a while with the current prognosis for Europe. A week or two of summer can easily be lost to this pattern. 

    Summer lovers need to hope the GFS is right in pulling the low west. The GFS is rarely completely right, but it's rarely completely wrong, just a small tug away from the UK is needed, there's still time for Sunday onwards to bring out the BBQ weather ?

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    I'm not saying I told you so but when everyone was saying this was only a blip and I said this is pattern that can easily stick around it was dismissed. Bar the complete outlier that is GFS we'll be two weeks in without much sign of anything settled. The 168 chart from ECM is really poor. 

     

    Who says it's going to stick around? If we can't trust any of the models more than around 3 days out at the moment, I'm not sure how you can come to this conclusion already.

    A bit early to be congratulating yourself!

    Caution is fine but there is a very fine line between caution and negativity.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Cleckheaton
    9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    My take on the 12Z runs... 

    I'm starting to get worried that we may fall into the Scandi High / Azores High "death trough" scenario. This is where pressure is high to the west, pressure is high to the east, and consequently low pressures get squeezed in the middle, and that tiny spot (on a global scale) gets plagued with low after low, slow moving because it is boxed in on all sides, while all around experiences the joys of summer. 

    A few days ago, it looked possible we would get just on the right side, but the ECM and UKMO increasing have this slack point nearer to the UK, even in the ECM ensembles tonight. 

    You have to be so unlucky to get into this spot, but it does often seem to be the UK, and there's a danger we will be in that place for a while with the current prognosis for Europe. A week or two of summer can easily be lost to this pattern. 

    Summer lovers need to hope the GFS is right in pulling the low west. The GFS is rarely completely right, but it's rarely completely wrong, just a small tug away from the UK is needed, there's still time for Sunday onwards to bring out the BBQ weather ?

    If we hadn't just had THEE sunniest spring on record I'd be gutted, but the inevitability of this happening after such a prolonged settled period is to be expected. Summer will definitely visit the UK, there's such an abundance of high pressure kicking about at northern latitudes it will eventually sit favourably again, in the meantime, I'm happy for all the farmers & growers out there.

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
    On 07/06/2020 at 21:57, Man With Beard said:

    I was also thinking the other way round - finely balanced for the SW too, 50-100 mile shift could push a lot of the SW out of the heavy rain zone, too. 

    A NW/SE split seems to be the form horse. Fairly typical British summer set up really! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    D530700C-F235-4852-A855-E8F9EAE8F24C.thumb.png.b3aa8abf7d445787302fcc88c97072bb.png53D91E4B-7392-4B20-9015-B9D3460E3517.thumb.png.46c0254d0a49a0a7025e26cc1db92817.png6558AF74-0CAD-4E7C-AA6D-3F855DE1339F.thumb.png.d97464b378ab06561195c004670b235f.png
     

    No comment needed really.

    Indeed - at 5 days out quite good agreement in the general pattern. Yes there will be detail changes at the surface with a setup like this but really isn't worth some of the hyperbole about the GFS

    Edited by chapmanslade
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    36 minutes ago, Downpour said:

    A NW/SE split seems to be the form horse. Fairly typical British summer set up really! 

    Short term - slow moving trough feature going nowhere fast meaning further bouts of rain or showers for many, some of it heavy and sustained - all very good for the gardens, groundwater levels etc given the very dry nearly 3 months.

     Longer term - agree with the above signs the azores high getting in on the act and the classic typical NW-SE pattern envelops. NW exposed to trough/frontal features, SE more under the influence of the azores high.

    Key question is whether the azores high can ridge sufficiently NE to introduce a more sustained settled spell before June is out, or we see the jet re-energised on a more negative tilt, and we are back to square one, with the azores high retreating back west.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    44 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Evening all,how are you all doing?

    slightly long post coming up

    so we have some more model drama this afternoon/evening and when isn't there and Mrs Shannon is paying a visit again just like a few days ago trying to pinpoint this trough coming down from Iceland that we have now and which model kept on picking it out then the other models followed suit,it was the UKMO but the runs got down to 72 hrs that most of the other models latched on

    we have this same similar scenario happening again but with the trough stuck out to the west of the UK here modeled at 96 and as you can see there are differences,the UKMO and GFS look similar so would UKMO produce what the gfs progresses with later in the run splitting the two troughs(one west of UK and the other over the Azores)sending the west UK one N/NW

    also we have to keep an eye on that S Greenland low and i think it is this that will determine the weather over the UK afterwards

    UW96-21.thumb.gif.a7f1e1b821777eac9c59a34da29e8f46.gifECM1-96.thumb.gif.d98996c75999d3eebf98d9279bd0342b.gifgfs-0-96.thumb.png.334de8ee97d7a4d732be24bed4844936.pnggem-0-96.thumb.png.5b98960de5a6f845ce744bbac69e4f7c.png

    Here at 120 and Shannon gets bigger(sorry Shannon):oldlaugh:

    UW120-21.thumb.gif.1a6f1f82a226a4894a24cd6ff173e4ab.gifECM1-120.thumb.gif.58b4b706fd84711458017e188761ae9e.gifgfs-0-120.thumb.png.3741d467f7c439aee38e1d49d19e806a.pnggem-0-120.thumb.png.162ff00356eed88d49c8f80dfeb57c1b.png

    obviously we would like the gfs to be right here because it shows the best outcome/scenario and it may be right but there is little point in commenting these charts at 120 because they are all different and fl starts before 96,the pattern is slack with highs and lows just meandering around that it is fraught with danger in the NWP'S so we are going to have to take each day as it comes i am afraid

    I do have some positive news though and that is the latest from cpc/NOAA 500mb height anomaly's

    343240955_610day.03(1).thumb.gif.0a50031956b99fb87a6f5da30d4d999f.gif211586226_814day.03(1).thumb.gif.e0f6df0f1c4fe5ee2fd722ace621c5c3.gif

    and are still showing the same pattern that they have been showing over the last few days,so are the op's having to play catch up here?

    obviously they don't show the op's details but it still looks good to me

    cheers.

     

     

    Yes NOAA has been consistent in both time scales, also lending support to this type of upper air chart is that both EC and GFS are fairly similar.

    I would expect the 500 mb charts days 3-6 out to day 10 from now to show a 'mean' pretty similar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS 18z not relenting either. Differences as early as T72 with UKMO / ECM.

    This is like deja vu!

    Low does look slightly closer though.

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Day 5 is looking quite good, 25c possible in some areas and the chance of some thundery downpours, mainly for the SW

    gfseuw-0-138.thumb.png.fee0ad7cbb9de8c32be41338b6d03922.png   gfseuw-1-144.thumb.png.e24323657eab6ca691fab25efc2109e0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS completes its second embarrassing backtrack within the space of a week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS completes its second embarrassing backtrack within the space of a week!

    Utterly predictable. We all knew what was coming.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Apropos of nothing, but seeing the upper trough headed south on a track through Eire is a shout out for the eps spreads first half last week when the nwp was at the height of its uncertainty. to be accurate, the spreads tended to look even further west than Ireland but taking the spread against the mean reveals the stretch of the envelope and Eire would have been the call 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    55 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    GFS completes its second embarrassing backtrack within the space of a week!

     

    23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Utterly predictable. We all knew what was coming.

    becoming v frustrated with the model .....anyone have evidence how poor or not it’s been last month via the verification graphs 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

     

    becoming v frustrated with the model .....anyone have evidence how poor or not it’s been last month via the verification graphs 


    No real change - order of accuracy remains ECM, UKMO, GEM, GFS

    D71F234D-1F35-4652-BF5B-89080EC1398C.thumb.jpeg.f0921df7e737ebe178ad5f76e1f4d90d.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z not bad, today: but it does, as do all the other models, continue to shuffle things around a tad, in response to the latest emerging signals...as @Tamara likes to say: the models react to the signals and not the other way around!?   

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    So, the penchant for comparing everything to the 'run that does it' is as futile in summer as it is in winter...quelle surprise!:oldlaugh:

    And, oh dear, the GFS op is on the cold side of the GEFS ens. (well, it can only ever be on one side or the other!:oldgood:)

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    And, lastly, the NH profiles:             npsh500mean-384.png

    npsh500mean-096.pngnpsh500mean-240.png

    So, clearly no suggestion of a repeat of 2012!:oldgrin:

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    You mention 2012 @General Cluster....but the rainfall totals are in from yesterday, and Mumbles saw 70mm odd (over a months worth) in the last 24 hours alone! With another 3-4 inches forecast in the next 10 days, some spots could be at 125-150mm plus by the 20th. With no prospects of anything settled on the horizon, there’s a chance a few locations may end up with one of their wettest Junes on record come the end of the month, especially in the SW.
     

    That might sound a bit OTT to some, but it’s certainly possible. For balance I should say that it’s not like that everywhere - 15mm for the month so far here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    What an awful ECM.

    There goes June for any decent hot/dry spell I think.

    What a turn around in the weather, like a switch was pressed.

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