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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    144

    ECM1-144.gif

    ?

    I'm wondering if that feature is losing its identity near the UK and this will be one of those runs that are certainly possible at the moment, and will now start to build an Azores ridge. Let's see, may take a few days on this run...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I’m sorry but that ecm run is horrid out to day 6, and is just more cloud and rain. Such a shame we might end up with this evolution when 1-2 days ago it looked half decent early next week. Ensembles will be interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM slower to lift the trough latest v 00z I’m sceptical GFS forecasting 26°C in London on Monday will come to fruition. 

    8ABD48B8-9F52-497D-83E0-BAA69374BF0E.thumb.png.f781e8cd91ef974c68f554b4db494a2e.png2D49E91A-6E98-46BF-A035-D8A614699A97.thumb.png.79146b6a10fdf35159eabfa3cd71a2fd.png

    Its poor from ECM again, temps don't exceed 18/19C here until at least Tuesday, a few further north east might see 21-22C at times but a lot of cloud supressing temps not helped and not particularly warm airmass. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Well, well it’s another big divide there going on, between ECM and GFS the latter much warmer and settled.

    2C997807-AD93-48AC-9C79-37E88E339DF9.thumb.png.a1323f61d10caecf1d783e0cbebc62b4.png0838A12A-0E7C-4ACC-A2CE-028334F46D35.thumb.png.946829fce323448c671e7520638b575e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

    I'm not saying I told you so but when everyone was saying this was only a blip and I said this is pattern that can easily stick around it was dismissed. Bar the complete outlier that is GFS we'll be two weeks in without much sign of anything settled. The 168 chart from ECM is really poor. 

     

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    11 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    144

    ECM1-144.gif

    ?

    Just for fun at this range of course...but could be a good day for thunderstorms/torrential downpours throughout the UK.

    E4170867-A9EB-4832-9E88-2D4A24ADB7F6.thumb.png.b2d679e511d68d24884b018c8f4d5359.pngD889BF05-E513-4CF5-8D90-BB820747DAF1.thumb.png.634457a51305d45af24ede556003b995.png0A126CA9-B29B-4CEE-90C9-C0C21D2BBE92.thumb.png.6dd088a8c3d97ce48541cddfff806098.png92548298-AD1A-4093-BB5F-A7352AA21F9B.thumb.png.e757496f44f2d5683e4f269872c27317.png

     

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

    Well we just don't know yet!  The big 3 were so different at T120, by now we're just commenting on the aesthetics of the run.

    Worth looking at the NH view occasionally even in summer, here T168:

    image.thumb.jpg.cb2ebc1896294f8da1cc598f311c68a2.jpg

    Digging a trough south west of Greenland?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GEM and JMA suck too, NW'lys Wed/Thur, not sure about verification, but these 2 models probably better than GFS

    J192-21.GIF?10-12gem-0-168.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    I'm not saying I told you so but when everyone was saying this was only a blip and I said this is pattern that can easily stick around it was dismissed. Bar the complete outlier that is GFS we'll be two weeks without much sign of anything settled. The 168 chart from ECM is really poor. 

    It goes against all of the intuition though. We have been immensely unlucky because everything that can go against us, has.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    192

    ECM1-192 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    It goes against all of the intuition though. We have been immensely unlucky because everything that can go against us, has.

    As part of my job I have to be naturally cautious maybe that's why I was a bit doomy about it but I don't care what the background signals are when the models start showing two large blocking highs sandwiching in a trough near the UK its always a dangerous time and the pattern nearly always takes ages and ages to reset. We could be bathed in glorious sunshine and warm temps in 7-10days time however unless their is a fundamental shift the pattern I think its unlikely. Could do with some Tropical activity to mix things up a bit....

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T216:

    image.thumb.jpg.1d6d496b217f8b1fa8d30fbcdd5695d7.jpg

    Well it is a different evolution, but brings an Atlantic trough, so that is good news.  I still think it is at odds with other output, not just the 12z ops, still plenty of uncertainty here...but the Atlantic trough is kind of what we are expecting to happen although it taking a little longer than anticipated.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z ECM ends quite good @240 

    ECM1-240.gif

    Better for the south though.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Well that concludes a fairly disappointing set of 12z runs GFS aside - in my humble opinion. People may well disagree.

    Looks like the trough disruption has caused the issue once again, and the energy isn’t going to split in our favour. With that comes 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days in a few spots (usually model accuracy caveats apply), but the synoptics  are certainly there. With an upper trough and surface trough over the UK or close by meaning no or little atmospheric cap, those rain clouds will build up and empty a lot of moisture. 

    E66066A9-068A-496B-9B75-39F07AFB3ACC.thumb.jpeg.d30bf91622b36e11a887725ad526259c.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I suspect GFS is being shown up for the inferior model it is again this evening.

    EC takes an eternity to clear the trough again so i will assume this is the correct evolution despite GFS offering the promise of something much more settled..

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    58 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It just seems that at the moment, no matter how the synoptics change, we can’t get out of this rut.

    The concern was raised about 2 week ago how this synoptic pattern could stick around but i was jumped upon and told not to pay attention to it because many were intent on it being just a blip. Hoping models look much different tomorrow (as usual) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    The concern was raised about 2 week ago how this synoptic pattern could stick around but i was jumped upon and told not to pay attention to it because many were intent on it being just a blip. Hoping models look much different tomorrow (as usual) 

    To be fair, most indications suggested a blip. And hopefully it will only turn out that way, albeit a slightly longer blip than initially hoped for!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think the GFS is to meteorology as the single parent is to economics: they both take the blame for all that's wrong with the system and/or whenever the 'experts' haven't a clue...??

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    The ECM mean shows what I expect to happen with the Atlantic very slightly waking up to send us into a more normal pattern with a higher than normal jet allowing the Azores to ridge over England 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Not a bad mean, more especially across Central Southern and SE areas.. High pressure looks to be ridging nicely later next week. Looks a little more unsettled towards the NW and generally cooler. 

    The ens point this out well.. ?

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    graphe1_00_247_93___.png

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    6 hours ago, ComradeDyatlov said:

    Hi there, 

     

    Totally new to all this but am a frequent visitor, but sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place. I was just wondering, does anyone have a resource that I can use to learn how to interpret these charts as well as learn about weather patterns in general? Also, where are people accessing these charts?

     

    Thanks in advance and sorry again if I'm asking in the wrong place

    Sorry just seen this, not sure if it's been answered, I'd suggest starting by downloading the Meteociel app on your phone or tablet. It's in French but pretty easy to get the hang of. 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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