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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks good. Troughs can be your friend at times! Could be a very thundery and warm few days if the 12z came to fruition.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: High Barnet
  • Location: High Barnet

    High risk high reward type scenario being modelled..large bank of warmer than avg air to our east/southeast...perhaps some intense model watching over the days ahead. Not something that can really be picked up on via just looking at background signals, as a small scale difference of just a few hundred miles in this case could easily prove the difference between persistent rain and suppressed daytime temps v sunshine, high twenties and tropical pm SB storms

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Good GEM so far. T150:

    image.thumb.jpg.65c7513b4d079eaf8af8519fe15cc4fc.jpg

    And this model has been quite consistent recently unlike most others, will be interested to see if it resists the push for a trough to come from the NNW to split the HPs, and even if it does, whether it is too far into FI to actually care?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Good lord it takes the GEM years to run, but my god.. Its worth the wait again.. That's 3 consecutive runs its been fab.. All the models now I feel are slowly improving, but still a little stand off going on, hopefully this soon to be sorted. That's me signing of folks for today, it's only week 1 of summer and already I'm suffering PMF... POST MODEL FATIGUE ? enjoy your evenings and keep safe... Stay alert.. ☀️?

    gem-0-102.png

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    gem-0-168.png

    gem-0-192.png

    giphy (3).gif

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Answer is yes it does resist any trough from Iceland,  looks another cracker this, GEM T210:

    image.thumb.jpg.db80bd5021cc8f3a002d0f0a443b031f.jpg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    This may not be good news, however...:

    Ben Noll

    @BenNollWeather

    Anomalous upper level convergence across the tropical Pacific suggests the atmosphere will continue to head in the direction of La Niña over the next month... An interesting pattern for when African easterly wave season begins

    AIUI, a low AAM is not good news for good summer weather here (need to learn why!)

    Will wait to see what Tamara and co come up with as they know far more than I about the teleconnections. Not really paying any attention to what the models say more than 4-5 days out, as IMHO it's just noise until the background signals become clearer.

    Edited by Uncle_Barty
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GEM very consistent. Let’s hope it’s not being consistently wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    What an odd set of output, its a bit lucky dip tonight isn't it.

    Starting of with the UKMO, its pretty ugly and looks like a slow moving trough will be parked over the UK for several days by D6.

    ICON not too dissimilar, and to be fair its been pretty consistent in its output however towards the end looks like its going for the over-arching high pressure link up, the trough doesn't look kindly slumping down over the UK

    GFS, expected it to be a massive outlier, surprisingly its not and seems pretty promising - although I suspect depending on locations it is wetter outlier precip due to its usual over modelling of moisture and associated convective breaks, dew points of 18/19C seem optimistic .

    All eyes on the ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Well i think most of the gefs ens went to church this afternoon and are singing from the same hymn sheet including the op??

    graphe3_1000_265_28___.thumb.png.e40d6bffd27f369862239747a684bf24.png

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    added info.
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Mixed bag again this evening....

    I would put money on EC following the UK model this evening.

    I prefer GFS but its rare GFS trumps UKMO in a stand off.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    50 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Well the gfs is miles better than the 06z if it's warmth and thunderstorms you are after....like me?

    gfs-0-240.thumb.png.cd061dbce564754d936ac1b933798f3d.pnggfs-1-240.thumb.png.f7a0197a9f5dd3587ed05bbaf8b196de.pnggfs-12-240.thumb.png.98d5073743c38b50de51b44a8db0e6dd.pnggfs-11-240.thumb.png.a8c44ea01ae84fbb5f1670c3ecb6b9d7.png

    just need them to drift off the near continent:clapping:

    day ten i know so no pressure;)

    I'm just enjoying the GFS 12Z for the synoptics, after D8 that is. SW trough boxed in by heights on all sides, close enough for instability, far enough away to allow the heat to the UK. Straight line continental draw for a whole week, daytime temperatures approaching 30C, evening thunderstorms, then same again! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ICON was the slowest model to pick up on this week’s low. Wouldn’t put too much faith in it. I’d rather UKMO was on board though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I'm just enjoying the GFS 12Z for the synoptics, after D8 that is. SW trough boxed in by heights on all sides, close enough for instability, far enough away to allow the heat to the UK. Straight line continental draw for a whole week, daytime temperatures approaching 30C, evening thunderstorms, then same again! 

    Perfect then?

    please everyone "DO NOT TELL ANYONE"

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    13 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    This may not be good news, however...:

    Ben Noll

    @BenNollWeather

    Anomalous upper level convergence across the tropical Pacific suggests the atmosphere will continue to head in the direction of La Niña over the next month... An interesting pattern for when African easterly wave season begins

    AIUI, a low AAM is not good news for good summer weather here (need to learn why!)

    Will wait to see what Tamara and co come up with as they know far more than I about the teleconnections. Not really paying any attention to what the models say more than 4-5 days out, as IMHO it's just noise until the background signals become clearer.

    As I understand it La Niña does put a downward pressure on AAM, but it is not the only factor, by any means, that drives it; one might expect it to have a greater impact as summer progresses, but I can't see it being the overriding issue for June, or indeed most of July.  The models have some uncertainty about how quickly we might head towards La Niña, anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    GEM finishes with this at day ten...

    gem-0-240.thumb.png.f950ea7235cbf75cda42099c95ee6260.pnggem-1-240.thumb.png.d3a96f5abf57e84b892a1e97c391d726.png

    i will drink to that.

    185469520_giphy(1).thumb.gif.bd831c507286bb0509914516c54193fd.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I'm just enjoying the GFS 12Z for the synoptics, after D8 that is. SW trough boxed in by heights on all sides, close enough for instability, far enough away to allow the heat to the UK. Straight line continental draw for a whole week, daytime temperatures approaching 30C, evening thunderstorms, then same again! 

    Oh don’t say that.....better get the Valium at the ready in the moans thread! Seems to keep cropping up mid month. It’s consistent if anything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    As I understand it La Niña does put a downward pressure on AAM, but it is not the only factor, by any means, that drives it; one might expect it to have a greater impact as summer progresses, but I can't see it being the overriding issue for June, or indeed most of July.  The models have some uncertainty about how quickly we might head towards La Niña, anyway.

    According to the contingency forecasters plan from the Met, La Nina was seen as having little baring on this summers weather Mike, personally I feel it as more input with the Winter conditions... Even then it can be sketchy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, MATT☀️ said:

    According to the contingency forecasters plan from the Met, La Nina was seen as having little baring on this summers weather Mike, personally I feel it as more input with the Winter conditions... Even then it can be sketchy. 

    The winter signals are quite clear though Matt

    la Nina, el Nino, low sea ice, eqbo, wqbo, mjo.....they all mean a mild winter. Job done!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    According to the contingency forecasters plan from the Met, La Nina was seen as having little baring on this summers weather Mike, personally I feel it as more input with the Winter conditions... Even then it can be sketchy. 

    Yes, it did Matt, but there is some uncertainty in the models and I was thinking it could be a contributing factor to a poorer end to summer, we will see....I did acknowledge uncertainty about this in my summer forecast post a few days ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM only out to T120 and its very similar to UKMO (could even be slightly more progressive) with the dual lows to the north and them not merging like GFS - Not sure I want to see the rest of the run, suspect its going to be troughsville - destination UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to see a 'warming' ensemble, with almost all its members in unison::clapping:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

                                     image.thumb.png.3e3dfae51cf2abc2bad8a8e0efbcbca3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The runs are different at 96. Enough said.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM only out to T120 and its very similar to UKMO (could even be slightly more progressive) with the dual lows to the north and them not merging like GFS - Not sure I want to see the rest of the run, suspect its going to be troughsville - destination UK

    You were saying mate?? Its best to follow a run throughout before making a final decision. 

    ECM1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM only out to T120 and its very similar to UKMO (could even be slightly more progressive) with the dual lows to the north and them not merging like GFS - Not sure I want to see the rest of the run, suspect its going to be troughsville - destination UK

    Better than ukmo at 144 hours and is exactly like this mornings 00z run!!!so far its right between the gfs and ukmo!!i take that as a positive!!lets see what the 168 hours shows!!

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