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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Yup expecting not such a good ecm this evening!!!shame could not clear that trough away!!always something has to pop up!!gfs control does not back the op very early on either!!!gfs seriously needs to be binned!!and no its not because its showing something that i want or dont want no!!!!its because its such a poorly performing crap model!!!!

    Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

    Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

    Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

    Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

    I'm aware it hasn't performed well recently but again it will be interesting to see the verification stats for all models.

    It will be very interesting in a week/10 days time to see which model has handled this trough the best. As I said earlier I'd back other models like the UKMO over the GFS at the moment, but I'm not quite letting myself get so excited that I want the GFS binned for its recent sins.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    9 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

    Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

    Yes, here day 6 and day 10 for 0z runs:

    image.thumb.jpg.32b7952e7adc5dba5e6528f903a98143.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.36c2e438a1252b691acd6e17091fd2d8.jpg

    Does look like a bit of a drop off on all models in the later stage, doesn't it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    6 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

    Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

    No its not because they have not verified its because this has happened time and time again with the gfs before and if you have been following this model for years you will know exactly what i am talking about and maybe you shall then see sense!!yeh it might be correct this time which is once in a while but its still a crap model!!unfortunately we gota sit here and talk about it cos its out there for the public to view and maybe in the hope of it actually being right for once!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Wouldn’t say that any model has performed well in the medium term.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

    Mate ecm for me is the best and im going on overall performace over the years!!ukmo second and then gfs!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, here day 6 and day 10 for 0z runs:

    image.thumb.jpg.32b7952e7adc5dba5e6528f903a98143.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.36c2e438a1252b691acd6e17091fd2d8.jpg

    Does look like a bit of a drop off on all models in the later stage, doesn't it?

    Indeed, Mike; and, there's nothing in those stats that'd entice me into 'backing' any one of them. I'll do as I've always done: mentally smear them all out, and use them for rough guidance...?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    No its not because they have not verified its because this has happened time and time again with the gfs before and if you have been following this model for years you will know exactly what i am talking about and maybe you shall then see sense!!yeh it might be correct this time which is once in a while but its still a crap model!!unfortunately we gota sit here and talk about it cos its out there for the public to view and maybe in the hope of it actually being right for once!!!

    I have followed the GFS and other models for a number of years. It is not the best but every now and again it spots a trend and sticks to it - it does that better than other models that flip flop around before coming into line. I don't apply that to the current synoptics by the way - I do think GFS is barking up the wrong tree here, too.

    However it gets a lot of attention on these threads. Yes it has a lot of publicly available data to pore over but it is clear that we also give it attention because it does compare OK to its peers as well. Just not in this case.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    I have followed the GFS and other models for a number of years. It is not the best but every now and again it spots a trend and sticks to it - it does that better than other models that flip flop around before coming into line. I don't apply that to the current synoptics by the way - I do think GFS is barking up the wrong tree here, too.

    However it gets a lot of attention on these threads. Yes it has a lot of publicly available data to pore over but it is clear that we also give it attention because it does compare OK to its peers as well. Just not in this case.

    Especially recently mate the gfs has been woeful!!not saying ukmo and ecm have performed 100 percent but they still have performed better!!!just gota hope in a miracle that gfs is correct and ecm follows it this evening!!you never know....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Especially recently mate the gfs has been woeful!!not saying ukmo and ecm have performed 100 percent but they still have performed better!!!just gota hope in a miracle that gfs is correct and ecm follows it this evening!!you never know....

    Looking at @Mike Poole's verification charts (thanks, BTW), the GFS hasn't set the world alight but neither have the others particularly and it's hardly languishing behind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I think perhaps we should start a little competition for when the makers of GFS decide its that out of sorts, they decide to rename the model again and throw more money at it.. ? Again the op is completely cut adrift from the pack.. 

    graphe4_1000_277_68___.png

    finally-youre-finished.jpg

    Edited by MATT☀️
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS was the first model to spot uppers of 25C last June so it deserves some credit. I recall everybody saying how ridiculous a model it was back then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS was the first model to spot uppers of 25C last June so it deserves some credit. I recall everybody saying how ridiculous a model it was back then.

    Yeh tbh it does have its moments.. If I recall last year @JON SNOW was posting some of the ens from GFS a couple of weeks before our first Heatwave at the end of June.. It kept with the theme and proven bang on correct.. All of these models have there moments and there failures... And in all honesty its probably due to the chaotic nature of our climate, rather than the major failure of any of these models. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z ens not too bad, when one remembers were are in the UK and not Florida::oldlaugh:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    And I guess that, being a partial +ive outlier for SLP, the GFS op is probably on the dry side of the pack...Warm and unsettled/thundery still the form horse??

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ecm going ukmo route already at 72 hours!!lets see the next frame!!i take a blooming middle ground as well!!?

    We all know it’ll follow GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T120:

    image.thumb.jpg.b76f7487174b1e234b4b0a4f41c70c72.jpg

    Here UKMO and GFS for comparison:

    image.thumb.jpg.4cb473e9193ad0873543a00d8e82879b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.de865147f7a9484535bed5f26c4194af.jpg

    Looks like it is going to take Route 66! Cut off both lows and jet head ENE?  The difference between the 3 models at T120 is also worth noting!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    looks better than 00Z, Atlantic air further away, this chart to me though looks cloudy

    ECM1-120.GIF?10-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Looks better than ukmo at 120 hours!!such a weird chart though!!trough just sits there and fills but it dont look too bad at all!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    ECM most definitely better than UKMO at day 5..☀️ Could be a decent run this. 

    UW120-21.gif

    ECM1-120.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    144

    ECM1-144.gif

    ?

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM slower to lift the trough latest v 00z I’m sceptical GFS forecasting 26°C in London on Monday will come to fruition. 

    8ABD48B8-9F52-497D-83E0-BAA69374BF0E.thumb.png.f781e8cd91ef974c68f554b4db494a2e.png2D49E91A-6E98-46BF-A035-D8A614699A97.thumb.png.79146b6a10fdf35159eabfa3cd71a2fd.png

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