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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup expecting not such a good ecm this evening!!!shame could not clear that trough away!!always something has to pop up!!gfs control does not back the op very early on either!!!gfs seriously needs to be binned!!and no its not because its showing something that i want or dont want no!!!!its because its such a poorly performing crap model!!!!

Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

I'm aware it hasn't performed well recently but again it will be interesting to see the verification stats for all models.

It will be very interesting in a week/10 days time to see which model has handled this trough the best. As I said earlier I'd back other models like the UKMO over the GFS at the moment, but I'm not quite letting myself get so excited that I want the GFS binned for its recent sins.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
9 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

Yes, here day 6 and day 10 for 0z runs:

image.thumb.jpg.32b7952e7adc5dba5e6528f903a98143.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.36c2e438a1252b691acd6e17091fd2d8.jpg

Does look like a bit of a drop off on all models in the later stage, doesn't it?

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Out of interest does anyone have a link to the recent verification stats? Would be good to see how well the models have handled the change to a more unsettled pattern since the start of the month.

Suggesting a model is crap and has to be binned over charts that haven't even verified yet is madness, mind you. There's more exclamation marks than sense there that's for sure.

No its not because they have not verified its because this has happened time and time again with the gfs before and if you have been following this model for years you will know exactly what i am talking about and maybe you shall then see sense!!yeh it might be correct this time which is once in a while but its still a crap model!!unfortunately we gota sit here and talk about it cos its out there for the public to view and maybe in the hope of it actually being right for once!!!

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Just cast your mind back 5 days. Tells you all you need to know about GFS!

Mate ecm for me is the best and im going on overall performace over the years!!ukmo second and then gfs!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, here day 6 and day 10 for 0z runs:

image.thumb.jpg.32b7952e7adc5dba5e6528f903a98143.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.36c2e438a1252b691acd6e17091fd2d8.jpg

Does look like a bit of a drop off on all models in the later stage, doesn't it?

Indeed, Mike; and, there's nothing in those stats that'd entice me into 'backing' any one of them. I'll do as I've always done: mentally smear them all out, and use them for rough guidance...

 

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

To have such a difference at t120 between GFS and UKMO is just embarrassing:

 

GFSOPEU12_120_1.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.png

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11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

No its not because they have not verified its because this has happened time and time again with the gfs before and if you have been following this model for years you will know exactly what i am talking about and maybe you shall then see sense!!yeh it might be correct this time which is once in a while but its still a crap model!!unfortunately we gota sit here and talk about it cos its out there for the public to view and maybe in the hope of it actually being right for once!!!

I have followed the GFS and other models for a number of years. It is not the best but every now and again it spots a trend and sticks to it - it does that better than other models that flip flop around before coming into line. I don't apply that to the current synoptics by the way - I do think GFS is barking up the wrong tree here, too.

However it gets a lot of attention on these threads. Yes it has a lot of publicly available data to pore over but it is clear that we also give it attention because it does compare OK to its peers as well. Just not in this case.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

I have followed the GFS and other models for a number of years. It is not the best but every now and again it spots a trend and sticks to it - it does that better than other models that flip flop around before coming into line. I don't apply that to the current synoptics by the way - I do think GFS is barking up the wrong tree here, too.

However it gets a lot of attention on these threads. Yes it has a lot of publicly available data to pore over but it is clear that we also give it attention because it does compare OK to its peers as well. Just not in this case.

Especially recently mate the gfs has been woeful!!not saying ukmo and ecm have performed 100 percent but they still have performed better!!!just gota hope in a miracle that gfs is correct and ecm follows it this evening!!you never know....

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Posted
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2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Especially recently mate the gfs has been woeful!!not saying ukmo and ecm have performed 100 percent but they still have performed better!!!just gota hope in a miracle that gfs is correct and ecm follows it this evening!!you never know....

Looking at @Mike Poole's verification charts (thanks, BTW), the GFS hasn't set the world alight but neither have the others particularly and it's hardly languishing behind.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

I think perhaps we should start a little competition for when the makers of GFS decide its that out of sorts, they decide to rename the model again and throw more money at it.. Again the op is completely cut adrift from the pack.. 

graphe4_1000_277_68___.png

finally-youre-finished.jpg

Edited by MATT☀️
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

GFS was the first model to spot uppers of 25C last June so it deserves some credit. I recall everybody saying how ridiculous a model it was back then.

Yeh tbh it does have its moments.. If I recall last year @JON SNOW was posting some of the ens from GFS a couple of weeks before our first Heatwave at the end of June.. It kept with the theme and proven bang on correct.. All of these models have there moments and there failures... And in all honesty its probably due to the chaotic nature of our climate, rather than the major failure of any of these models. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GEFS 12Z ens not too bad, when one remembers were are in the UK and not Florida::oldlaugh:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

And I guess that, being a partial +ive outlier for SLP, the GFS op is probably on the dry side of the pack...Warm and unsettled/thundery still the form horse?

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm going ukmo route already at 72 hours!!lets see the next frame!!i take a blooming middle ground as well!!

We all know it’ll follow GFS.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T120:

image.thumb.jpg.b76f7487174b1e234b4b0a4f41c70c72.jpg

Here UKMO and GFS for comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.4cb473e9193ad0873543a00d8e82879b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.de865147f7a9484535bed5f26c4194af.jpg

Looks like it is going to take Route 66! Cut off both lows and jet head ENE?  The difference between the 3 models at T120 is also worth noting!

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

ECM most definitely better than UKMO at day 5..☀️ Could be a decent run this. 

UW120-21.gif

ECM1-120.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

144

ECM1-144.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

ECM slower to lift the trough latest v 00z I’m sceptical GFS forecasting 26°C in London on Monday will come to fruition. 

8ABD48B8-9F52-497D-83E0-BAA69374BF0E.thumb.png.f781e8cd91ef974c68f554b4db494a2e.png2D49E91A-6E98-46BF-A035-D8A614699A97.thumb.png.79146b6a10fdf35159eabfa3cd71a2fd.png

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