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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    UKMO 120 and 144 

    E82421DD-0FD7-46A8-AF25-624BCE2CA841.gif

    6719D54F-E044-44FD-A10F-460BDD0E054F.gif
     

    nothing like the GFS unfortunately 

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    Spoiler : it doesn't 

    Looks changeable to me - certainly no settled weather on offer into early next week like the GFS is showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    And the ukmo is a complete and utter mess again!!and im sorry but i gota back the ukmo here after the last event!!!the ukmo continues to look the worst out of the top 3 and carries on where it left of on the 00z!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    GFS continues to embarrass itself unfortunately. There is no way it will ever trump the UKMO at that range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    UKMO Next Tuesday, followed by GFS 12z . Not a million miles apart overall the northern hemisphere, but for this locale still makes a big difference to the boots on the ground the way the Low is situated on UKMO, which you have to back

    image.thumb.png.d1f3f2d1e0d133a022f8fbdf1a937b0b.pngimage.thumb.png.2e4e2553b65d7ef57a436422295f7caa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Let me just add that the ukmo is not the worst i have ever seen but i am comparing it to gfs and its chalk and cheese!!but regardless ukmo would still be very nice across england and wales with temps  low to mid twenties just not as hot as gfs i think!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Shockingly bad in terms of an ensemble outlier yet again. Such a big proportion of gfs runs recently have been either one or the other. Hardly ever representative of the other ensemble members.

    How is the 6z an outlier ? The attached image of pressure was very consistent with the ensemble members

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s gfs vs the world again....completely at odds with the other models into monday. Think we all know who to back here!

    Fancy posting the comparison charts so we can all see this ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    the GFS is stunningly good but should be viewed in a just for fun capacity - similar to the NAVGEM

    Depends how it sits in the ensembles. Outlier? Sure treat it as just for fun. Otherwise it has some merit and deserves some consideration. It's ahead of Navgem, obvs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to see the warmth still going, by Wednesday? BTW, I back the weather, every time!:oldlaugh:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Well I guess the UKMO has turned into the UKNO :crazy:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I think people using the term 'GFS brings the heat' is a massive over exaggeration, uppers are mostly 6-9C, low to mid 20's at best and given the output from UKMO even that looks highly optimistic. The UKMO run is concerning as again, negatively tilted with a the UK opening its arms to attracting further troughing and low pressure descending from the NNW. Other than GFS little sign of a return to settled conditions in the short to near term.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    Depends how it sits in the ensembles. Outlier? Sure treat it as just for fun. Otherwise it has some merit and deserves some consideration. It's ahead of Navgem, obvs.

    You’d give it no more than a 5% chance whilst it’s against the UKMO. Even if it had full ensemble support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    You’d give it no more than a 5% chance whilst it’s against the UKMO. Even if it had full ensemble support.

    I would also back the UKMO over the GFS, but I'm not putting a percentage on it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    According to the GFS and ICON runs from last Saturday, I’d now be experiencing mid twenties and sunshine as opposed to the truly vile excuse for a summer’s day! I’m not forgiving it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    17 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    Fancy posting the comparison charts so we can all see this ?

    D530700C-F235-4852-A855-E8F9EAE8F24C.thumb.png.b3aa8abf7d445787302fcc88c97072bb.png53D91E4B-7392-4B20-9015-B9D3460E3517.thumb.png.46c0254d0a49a0a7025e26cc1db92817.png6558AF74-0CAD-4E7C-AA6D-3F855DE1339F.thumb.png.d97464b378ab06561195c004670b235f.png
     

    No comment needed really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

    I would also back the UKMO over the GFS, but I'm not putting a percentage on it. 

    Nearly 99.8%? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I'm not sure the GFS solution of a southerly flow by Monday was ever really an expectation. I am more interested in an Azores ridge developing in the 8 to 10 day range, which has a much better chance of coming off, in my opinion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, Alderc said:

    Nearly 99.8%? 

    You’re in one of your generous moods then . . . ?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I'm not sure the GFS solution of a southerly flow by Monday was ever really an expectation. I am more interested in an Azores ridge developing in the 8 to 10 day range, which has a much better chance of coming off, in my opinion.

    Yup...

    Clearly this trough is going to hang around like a bad smell , longer than those of us wanting a return to settled weather would like anyway.

    That ship has now sailed so we look to the medium term ,fingers crossed things settle down thereafter...

    Ps despite GFS looking much more appealing to the genuine members on here looking for a return of summer weather,i doubt very much it will  trump the UKMO model...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Yup expecting not such a good ecm this evening!!!shame could not clear that trough away!!always something has to pop up!!gfs control does not back the op very early on either!!!gfs seriously needs to be binned!!and no its not because its showing something that i want or dont want no!!!!its because its such a poorly performing crap model!!!!

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