Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[sheikhy 4,593]

Heat well and truely on at 114 hours on latest gfs 12z!!no changes so far and looks nothing like the 00z ecm so far!

[Leo97t 461]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Heat well and truely on at 114 hours on latest gfs 12z!!no changes so far and looks nothing like the 00z ecm so far!

Unless the ukmo comes un board just ignore it

[Leo97t 461]

Just now, Leo97t said:

Unless the ukmo comes un board just ignore it

Spoiler : it doesn't 

[Mark wheeler 6,914]

UKMO 120 and 144 

 

nothing like the GFS unfortunately 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538 10,373]

2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Spoiler : it doesn't 

Looks changeable to me - certainly no settled weather on offer into early next week like the GFS is showing.

[sheikhy 4,593]

And the ukmo is a complete and utter mess again!!and im sorry but i gota back the ukmo here after the last event!!!the ukmo continues to look the worst out of the top 3 and carries on where it left of on the 00z!

[Djdazzle 5,514]

GFS continues to embarrass itself unfortunately. There is no way it will ever trump the UKMO at that range.

[Leo97t 461]

the GFS is stunningly good but should be viewed in a just for fun capacity - similar to the NAVGEM

[Downburst 414]

UKMO Next Tuesday, followed by GFS 12z . Not a million miles apart overall the northern hemisphere, but for this locale still makes a big difference to the boots on the ground the way the Low is situated on UKMO, which you have to back

[sheikhy 4,593]

Let me just add that the ukmo is not the worst i have ever seen but i am comparing it to gfs and its chalk and cheese!!but regardless ukmo would still be very nice across england and wales with temps  low to mid twenties just not as hot as gfs i think!

[chapmanslade 423]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Shockingly bad in terms of an ensemble outlier yet again. Such a big proportion of gfs runs recently have been either one or the other. Hardly ever representative of the other ensemble members.

How is the 6z an outlier ? The attached image of pressure was very consistent with the ensemble members

[chapmanslade 423]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s gfs vs the world again....completely at odds with the other models into monday. Think we all know who to back here!

Fancy posting the comparison charts so we can all see this ?

[Steel City Skies 2,677]

7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

the GFS is stunningly good but should be viewed in a just for fun capacity - similar to the NAVGEM

Depends how it sits in the ensembles. Outlier? Sure treat it as just for fun. Otherwise it has some merit and deserves some consideration. It's ahead of Navgem, obvs.

[General Cluster 62,872]

Nice to see the warmth still going, by Wednesday? BTW, I back the weather, every time!

    

[Zak M 17,586]

Well I guess the UKMO has turned into the UKNO 

[Alderc 2,932]

I think people using the term 'GFS brings the heat' is a massive over exaggeration, uppers are mostly 6-9C, low to mid 20's at best and given the output from UKMO even that looks highly optimistic. The UKMO run is concerning as again, negatively tilted with a the UK opening its arms to attracting further troughing and low pressure descending from the NNW. Other than GFS little sign of a return to settled conditions in the short to near term.  

[Djdazzle 5,514]

3 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

Depends how it sits in the ensembles. Outlier? Sure treat it as just for fun. Otherwise it has some merit and deserves some consideration. It's ahead of Navgem, obvs.

You’d give it no more than a 5% chance whilst it’s against the UKMO. Even if it had full ensemble support.

[Steel City Skies 2,677]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You’d give it no more than a 5% chance whilst it’s against the UKMO. Even if it had full ensemble support.

I would also back the UKMO over the GFS, but I'm not putting a percentage on it. 

[Djdazzle 5,514]

According to the GFS and ICON runs from last Saturday, I’d now be experiencing mid twenties and sunshine as opposed to the truly vile excuse for a summer’s day! I’m not forgiving it!

[mb018538 10,373]

17 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Fancy posting the comparison charts so we can all see this ?

 

No comment needed really.

[Alderc 2,932]

8 minutes ago, Jim Halpert said:

I would also back the UKMO over the GFS, but I'm not putting a percentage on it. 

Nearly 99.8%? 

[Mike Poole 31,131]

I'm not sure the GFS solution of a southerly flow by Monday was ever really an expectation. I am more interested in an Azores ridge developing in the 8 to 10 day range, which has a much better chance of coming off, in my opinion.

[Djdazzle 5,514]

Just now, Alderc said:

Nearly 99.8%? 

You’re in one of your generous moods then . . . ?

[northwestsnow 25,394]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm not sure the GFS solution of a southerly flow by Monday was ever really an expectation. I am more interested in an Azores ridge developing in the 8 to 10 day range, which has a much better chance of coming off, in my opinion.

Yup...

Clearly this trough is going to hang around like a bad smell , longer than those of us wanting a return to settled weather would like anyway.

That ship has now sailed so we look to the medium term ,fingers crossed things settle down thereafter...

Ps despite GFS looking much more appealing to the genuine members on here looking for a return of summer weather,i doubt very much it will  trump the UKMO model...

Edited June 10, 2020 by northwestsnow

[sheikhy 4,593]

Yup expecting not such a good ecm this evening!!!shame could not clear that trough away!!always something has to pop up!!gfs control does not back the op very early on either!!!gfs seriously needs to be binned!!and no its not because its showing something that i want or dont want no!!!!its because its such a poorly performing crap model!!!!