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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    GFS D6 solution only backed by 20% of ECM ensembles 

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020061000_144.

    No clusters after D9, which doesn't inspire confidence. Ridge still NE, trough still chipping away at the west - in the balance but quite possible that warm/dry weather may hang on.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020061000_228.

    Still an improving picture, by D12 heights are rising from the SW too.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020061000_300.

    I've checked the individual ensembles and probably 60% of runs look like this; other runs have more influence from the NW trough, and a few have a new Euro trough.

    Yes, i posted earlier regarding the EC mean,the members pushing the Azores high in must be a majority.My theory is we may begin to see a NW/SE split ,further away from the NW the better.

    Of course, a lot can change in the 8 day onwards timeframe ,steady as she goes ..

    I omitted GFS, 6z looks really good mid term but im always suspcious of this model so don't broadly speaking factor it in too much in my thoughts.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Do I see a Britain-shaped cold patch? h850t850eu.png :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Met office warning for rain now out for the SW England and SW Wales....50-70mm possible in a few places in the next day.

    I see all that rain dancing that was being done a couple of weeks ago has finally paid off ?
     

     My favourite (?)  the Navgem looks Not to bad today . At 120 and then 180 .

    12D6496A-6598-4BB5-AF40-3D92FDD46C22.png

    089DA064-B586-42FA-8899-FF5F64B6B964.png

    1C58EA00-8A5E-424C-8BF0-C25583FF7531.png

    0E511B91-05C3-46B4-9E10-A95877F77087.png

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    Hi everyone,

     

    It's been a while since I posted.

    I'm interested to know what is stopping the Azores high building towards the UK at the moment? I know it tried yesterday, but  has now retreated. What are the reasons for this, beyond the position of the jet stream?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Day 7 is looking decent on the 06z GFS

    gfseuw-0-168.thumb.png.0473e386dcdaca96ce12b6cc40e967c4.png   gfseuw-1-168.thumb.png.bcf539cabbe74dde2c86ef6943e11f77.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The GFS is just the weather mode version of Boris Johnson - nobody believes what it says. That’s all there is to say on the 6z

    1629A779-8CD9-4AB7-A75A-C3B52535CEF0.thumb.png.58960093e00e4db0092e2ba0f9510d58.png

    Shockingly bad yet again. You wonder if there’s a bug in there, or it’s just genuinely really bad.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The GFS is just the weather mode version of Boris Johnson - nobody believes what it says. That’s all there is to say on the 6z

    And, from how the models have all flipped and flopped, these past few days, we shouldn't be believing any of them -- verification stats or no verification stats...??

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

    More worrying is the fact the beeb was only just the other day talking about a warm and settled June.. Perhaps these monthly updates should be binned, bacause all they tend to do is lead to more frustration and despair.. I'm gonna stay focused on the 10 day output in future, and even that leaves alot to be desired. 

    Pretty sure those forecasts are largely based from whatever the Euro ensembles indicate at the time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    1629A779-8CD9-4AB7-A75A-C3B52535CEF0.thumb.png.58960093e00e4db0092e2ba0f9510d58.png

    Shockingly bad yet again. You wonder if there’s a bug in there, or it’s just genuinely really bad.

    Would you like to explain why it is shockingly bad ? Strong ensemble support and from what BBC weather just said they are expecting a pressure rise from the south next week. ECM is also showing pressure ridging in from the SW by midweek next week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: aberdeen 65m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter Sun in summer
  • Location: aberdeen 65m
    42 minutes ago, Phil Vowels said:

    Hi everyone,

     

    It's been a while since I posted.

    I'm interested to know what is stopping the Azores high building towards the UK at the moment? I know it tried yesterday, but  has now retreated. What are the reasons for this, beyond the position of the jet stream?

    Welcome Phil to a great forum,there are a few reasons for this and I'm sure the many experienced brains on here with soon provide you with the answer most goes well over my head ,I'd say a downturn in angular momentum has a large part to play ,also there is an area of high pressure around Scandavia which I believe is trying to retrogress west ,mother nature hates a vacuum and a low pressure will fill the space I might be talking rubbish here I'm old?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

    Would you like to explain why it is shockingly bad ? Strong ensemble support and from what BBC weather just said they are expecting a pressure rise from the south next week. ECM is also showing pressure ridging in from the SW by midweek next week. 

    The signal for the Azores high to ridge towards the UK has been present for a few days now...

    ?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

    Would you like to explain why it is shockingly bad ? Strong ensemble support and from what BBC weather just said they are expecting a pressure rise from the south next week. ECM is also showing pressure ridging in from the SW by midweek next week. 

    Shockingly bad in terms of an ensemble outlier yet again. Such a big proportion of gfs runs recently have been either one or the other. Hardly ever representative of the other ensemble members.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Do I see a Britain-shaped cold patch? h850t850eu.png :shok:

    Looks like it’s easier to grow a homegrown cold pool in summer than winter lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Shockingly bad in terms of an ensemble outlier yet again. Such a big proportion of gfs runs recently have been either one or the other. Hardly ever representative of the other ensemble members.

    The operational is run in high resolution out to 10 days.  The ensemble members are not.  If you want to compare the model in the early (<10 day) to the ensembles you'd be better of looking at the control which uses the same initialisation data as the op but runs in low resolution.  The impact of high and low resolution on the model can be gauged by comparing operating to control.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    5 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

     

    I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

    no real sign just yet but even those hot summers (2006) we had to wait for the continent to get seriously hot first. Focus on Europe not just Spain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    24 minutes ago, Trom said:

    The operational is run in high resolution out to 10 days.  The ensemble members are not.  If you want to compare the model in the early (<10 day) to the ensembles you'd be better of looking at the control which uses the same initialisation data as the op but runs in low resolution.  The impact of high and low resolution on the model can be gauged by comparing operating to control.

    Doesn’t seem to matter what resolution it runs in....it’s still trash most of the time! Last week it was hell bent on this low pressure not diving down, even though ukmo and ecm consistently showed it. It came in tail between legs a few days late.

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    Hi there, 

     

    Totally new to all this but am a frequent visitor, but sorry if I'm asking in the wrong place. I was just wondering, does anyone have a resource that I can use to learn how to interpret these charts as well as learn about weather patterns in general? Also, where are people accessing these charts?

     

    Thanks in advance and sorry again if I'm asking in the wrong place

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The 06Z is not an outlier: it merely goes from the warmer to the colder end of the ens; apart from two days, early on, it stays within the total ensemble spread??

     t850Bedfordshire.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Icon  12z on goes off on its merry way again!!no where near ecm gfs or ukmo!!will it be correct though?wont be the first time!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Icon  12z on goes off on its merry way again!!no where near ecm gfs or ukmo!!will it be correct though?wont be the first time!!?

    Wasn’t it the first to pick out the 2018 “Beast from the East”?

    One hit wonder!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Wasn’t it the first to pick out the 2018 “Beast from the East”?

    One hit wonder!

    A broken clock is right twice a day.

    Since that 2018 triumph it seems to have been about as much use as a condom in a nunnery.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS parallel 0z finds a route to a ridge from the Azores by T192:

    anim_alt3.gif

    This by T312:

    image.thumb.jpg.1e3ea73996330f886d4268eee10ebd54.jpg

    Well into la la land by that point, but what seems clear from recent op runs and ensembles (particularly ECM) is that there is a route to an Azores high ridge to the UK by day 8 but not all model runs are taking it, as you would expect at that range.  One to watch on the 12s.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The weekend warm-up well and truly underway!:oldgood:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It’s gfs vs the world again....completely at odds with the other models into monday. Think we all know who to back here!

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