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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

    Heavy rain between now and Saturday afternoon. Look at these GFS PPN charts - 35mm of rain over my area...Wrexham image.thumb.png.1d557f5ab13e8a6f4595337e96eea921.png

     

    Edited by NApplewhite
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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM parallel 12z is an absolute belter!

    anim_tpj2.gif

    Deals with the low efficiently and a really strong ridge from the Azores by day 10.

    Day 10 = FL! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    58 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    Day 10 = FL! 

    FL?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Have to say the 00z runs are pretty underwhelming. GFS best - but that’s a bit of a settled outlier. The others don’t have the sharp trough cut off and southerly like yesterday, so the warm air never really makes it.....and pressure stays lower, so likely to still be showery.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Have to say the 00z runs are pretty underwhelming. GFS best - but that’s a bit of a settled outlier. The others don’t have the sharp trough cut off and southerly like yesterday, so the warm air never really makes it.....and pressure stays lower, so likely to still be showery.

    Yes, slight changes this morning,i think it was EC that made the more notable adjustment to this trough yesterday evening and UKMO in particular seems to have followed from what i can make out..

    Could have done with the troughing being pulled further west or south west but the last minute trend seems to have it far too close to our shores.

    Still evolving i might add...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM completes a disappointing set. Warmer air never makes it, trough closer, and Atlantic starting to push through. More showers around too, especially further n and W.

    777A463A-3B14-423E-8F6B-268102068CAF.thumb.png.afe0840d8b528c1f37e6bec274709556.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Always seems to happen on the 00z runs.

    No real warmth either. Low twenties now. Another swing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Today's GFS 00Z is looking good: the 5C T850 isotherm stays, for the most part, well north of the UK::clapping:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    So, as @38.7°C quite rightly points out, signs of a rerun of 2012 (why the obsession?) are most certainly not 'screaming': they are entirely nonexistent!:oldlaugh:

    The GEFS ens: warm/very warm, humid and possibly thundery weather to dominate?:yahoo:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    NH profiles: npsh500mean-240.png  npsh500mean-384.png

    So, I'd say we're bordering on heatwave territory, as the hottest areas will likely move around the country, in response to day-to-day synoptic shifts??

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    No real warmth either. Low twenties now. Another swing!

    Hopefully the 12z set will be better. If not, we would have been very unlucky. That low should be backing west and I don’t understand why it hasn’t.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Almost a clean sweep on the poor output this morning, GFS probably offering the most as it attempts to build some warmth in initially In the east through the weekend and then more widely as it build a weak high pressure near the U.K. However the outlook for the west and south west remains less certainly even on gfs. ECM, GEM & UKMO to T120 considerably more disappointing as the weak trough remains near the U.K. producing a lot of cloud again ECM only has temps above 20c for eastern England, never really gets above 18c until beyond the weekend here. The washout appears not to have a materialised for most however looks like a good 5-6days at least of gloomy, cool conditions on the cards for many especially in the southwest, the extreme east and north always fairing best. UKMO and ECM appear also to be looking to dig another large upper trough down from the northwest.
     

    Certainly almost zero settled, warm and sunny conditions bar the odd day in the near Future with a jet pointed at the U.K. from the north west, I sort of preferred GFS longer term as despite the lows in the west it would start to build a more normal summer pattern and increase the chances of the extension of the Azores high northeastwards. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM redeems itself by day 9/10, but I’d remain sceptical of a strong build from the Azores high just now. Expecting that last bit to be an outlier, but would be happy to see it as a new trend emerging!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    55D84694-BFA9-42E4-8EDD-06B00D98C240.thumb.jpeg.037849a1bcc533ba1b86f828fccd2d12.jpeg

    ECM 10 day rainfall for the 00z - SW Wales and England worst hit seeing around 100mm.
    Wales and northern England also wet, with central southern England and the SE driest.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC looks to be similar with its progression to UKMO from what i have seen which inturn suggests the Azores high ridging in to settle things down post trough looks a good shout at this juncture.Hopefully paving the way for warm temps and less emphasis on showers..

    As per EC mean guidance over the last few days...

    ☀️

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    55D84694-BFA9-42E4-8EDD-06B00D98C240.thumb.jpeg.037849a1bcc533ba1b86f828fccd2d12.jpeg

    ECM 10 day rainfall for the 00z - SW Wales and England worst hit seeing around 100mm.
    Wales and northern England also wet, with central southern England and the SE driest.

     

    I wouldn't worry too much about predicted rainfall-totals, MB: when do thundery outbreaks not produce copious amounts of rain (upwards of 75mm) at isolated locations? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC looks to be similar with its progression to UKMO from what i have seen which inturn suggests the Azores high ridging in to settle things down post trough looks a good shout at this juncture.Hopefully paving the way for warm temps and less emphasis on showers..

    As per EC mean guidance over the last few days...

    ☀️

    We need the Azores High! What are the meterological reasons why the Low pressure isnt tracking west! Come on Azores High the UK needs you! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    46 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Almost a clean sweep on the poor output this morning, GFS probably offering the most as it attempts to build some warmth in initially In the east through the weekend and then more widely as it build a weak high pressure near the U.K. However the outlook for the west and south west remains less certainly even on gfs. ECM, GEM & UKMO to T120 considerably more disappointing as the weak trough remains near the U.K. producing a lot of cloud again ECM only has temps above 20c for eastern England, never really gets above 18c until beyond the weekend here. The washout appears not to have a materialised for most however looks like a good 5-6days at least of gloomy, cool conditions on the cards for many especially in the southwest, the extreme east and north always fairing best. UKMO and ECM appear also to be looking to dig another large upper trough down from the northwest.
     

    Certainly almost zero settled, warm and sunny conditions bar the odd day in the near Future with a jet pointed at the U.K. from the north west, I sort of preferred GFS longer term as despite the lows in the west it would start to build a more normal summer pattern and increase the chances of the extension of the Azores high northeastwards. 

    As usual the warm humid weather fails to materialise! we have had nine days of Cold weather in Wales and i can't cope with another 14 days of terrible summer weather.  Time to book a holiday to the Greek islands in July for two weeks of suimage.thumb.png.d56770720dec036d272e7318379f9317.pngn - oh no i just realised i can't escape the UK!  How can I get my sunshine fix this summer?  I hate the UK summers! 

     

    Today (June 10th 2020)

    A cloudy and murky start, but mostly dry, before showers move in eastwards from the coast through the morning, reaching easternmost regions in the afternoon. Showers will begin to turn heavier along the west coast through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 16 °C.

    Edited by NApplewhite
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    I wouldn't worry too much about predicted rainfall-totals, MB: when do thundery outbreaks not produce copious amounts of rain (upwards of 75mm) at isolated locations? ?

    Whilst this is true, most of the rain in those locations is frontal rain tied in to the low pressure - as well as being closer to the low so more prone to showers. Totals may of course be much lower. Doesn’t look like anywhere is going to see anything prolonged in the way of dry and sunny weather though.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Lovely EC mean...

    Gathering momentum the Azores high is going to settle things down mid term...

    ☀️

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    It looks fine to me.. Pretty decent outlook especially away from the far NW. The heat will come, its very early days just yet.. But again some are getting hung up over the op runs. 

    EDM1-96 (1).gif

    EDM1-120 (1).gif

    EDM1-192 (1).gif

    EDM1-240 (1).gif

    graphe1_00_303_107___.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    3 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

    Day 10 = FL! 

     

    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Lovely EC mean...

    Gathering momentum the Azores high is going to settle things down mid term...

    ☀️

    I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM redeems itself by day 9/10, but I’d remain sceptical of a strong build from the Azores high just now. Expecting that last bit to be an outlier, but would be happy to see it as a new trend emerging!

    Quite myself, but my Nostradamus is strong today!

    98B499C5-6F40-451D-BF76-B90D418132C5.thumb.png.0e50e48226f5416967c0451b675b1616.pngC3D009AA-E57F-41D7-A564-75B0653E6951.thumb.png.3113ae4117943018e5bdbe6a8f209615.png

    Outlier as expected, but the general trend is pretty good. Pressure mean up to 1020mb, and 500mb heights increasing, which is always a good sign. Slow and steady perhaps!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

     

    I Can't see the Azores high making it or a Spanish plume this summer. 

    That is of course possible.

    EC guidance this morning  suggests otherwise however...

    Time will tell...

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