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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all ?

    A better day in lowland East London to be fair but where will the middle of next week find us in terms of the weather.

    Perhaps the evening's 12Z model output will help - perhaps it won't.

    T+192 tonight I think:

    ECM1-192.GIF?09-0gfs-0-192.png?12gens-0-1-192.pngJ192-21.GIF?09-12gem-0-192.png?12

    Charts for next Wednesday afternoon, June 17th from respectively - ECM, GFS OP, GFS Control, JMA and GEM

    The broad pattern remains the same - heights to the NE and SW and pressure lower to the NW and SE. The British Isles in the col between the pressure systems.

    ECM would be fine for many with a gentle NE'ly for southern parts but GFS OP has the trough more defined close to the British Isles so unsettled with rain or showers for many. Control throws a weak ridge of HP from the Azores so decent conditions if cooler with a light N'ly breeze. JMA keeps the ridge to the NW and the trough to the SE as the dominant feature so rain or showers most likely for the SE and fair elsewhere and GEM not dissimilar.

    The difference seems to be the influence of the European trough and the scope for any weak ridge from the west but there's a lot still to be decided at the medium range.

    Looking further ahead for trends,  ECM ends with the stand off continuing and the British Isles in the col. 

    GEM ends more positively for those wanting settled weather with a ridge building NE from the Azores and a sense of a more "normal" pattern re-emerging. 

    GFS Control is very different from GEM and ends with the warmth from the east struggling to move in across the British Isles and a very slack pressure gradient in situ.

    GFS OP is similar to GEM and restores a degree of normality with the Atlantic systems coming through and the Azores HP building the ridge NE but it's only a ridge and while warm and settled the real heat is kept far to the south.

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Again euro4 hardly any rain tomorrow across england apart from wales!!!hmm!!lets see who gona be right gfs or euro4!!!

    Actually looking at a number of short term models, they are all over the place for rain tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Actually looking at a number of short term models, they are all over the place for rain tomorrow. 

    I've been keeping a check with Extra for the spot location here

    Mon 00=18mm; 12=5 mm

     

    Tue 00=6 mm

    12=13 mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The ECM mean from 120...

    EDM1-120.thumb.gif.256cea413aa484ecf38cf82e8b65142a.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.baf624f566cac25473d24ea917b9cbab.gif

    EDM1-144.thumb.gif.13d4c0d58b21807df5b6ea907d82ab85.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.0c661290bcbd8f8e90331f7a0d79a28f.gif

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.9acbbfcec4d0ff4c26e469090183f31b.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.b3b4212ccdf43ddf7b200a032e2d1f7e.gif

    EDM1-192.thumb.gif.d46b386e2d1f0104e20d735130ff47ca.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.72f86a6f9f750cd3621bd1bc78114fb1.gif

    EDM1-216.thumb.gif.a155a0c6616ea65b09d0d25fba0e9f6e.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.775d152ca8e71a48ffaa46bdeda38453.gif

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.24b0bf318a4c2bd00ab20b793b139b95.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.f9ef6da7e01cb5b70aac22b36bada2b4.gif

    Although synoptic(500mb) wise it looks decent but i thought that the temps would've been better than that

    graphe_ens3_uly1.thumb.png.df62a9e04131581086bb8f61601e487a.pnggraphe1_00_264_28___.thumb.png.d84e11ddf1b8c6018c7dedc4aa79f5fd.png

    the op a cool outlier mid tern but a huge pressure outlier?

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Last one from me tonight

    and here is the latest from NOAA's 500mb height anomaly's 6-10/8-14 days

    and as you were really from the last few days,+ve heights to our NE and -ve heights to our west:- end outcome looking from this is still warm with a upper S/SW flow with surface SE flow.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.c200c9a28c8b4c927ee2dccc0a653807.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.b3e73aa4830b68c3c80776290ec70673.gif

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    47 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Again euro4 hardly any rain tomorrow across england apart from wales!!!hmm!!lets see who gona be right gfs or euro4!!!

    The Euro4 and UKV are not too dissimilar in terms of accumulations from 15Z tomorrow until 15Z Thursday.

    viewimage.thumb.png.4448fc177a47453dcde12e88f30f1cf9.png 20061115_0912.thumb.gif.3208941b0f0d5f10ee9267c6868e33d2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM mean from 120...

    EDM1-120.thumb.gif.256cea413aa484ecf38cf82e8b65142a.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.baf624f566cac25473d24ea917b9cbab.gif

    EDM1-144.thumb.gif.13d4c0d58b21807df5b6ea907d82ab85.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.0c661290bcbd8f8e90331f7a0d79a28f.gif

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.9acbbfcec4d0ff4c26e469090183f31b.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.b3b4212ccdf43ddf7b200a032e2d1f7e.gif

    EDM1-192.thumb.gif.d46b386e2d1f0104e20d735130ff47ca.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.72f86a6f9f750cd3621bd1bc78114fb1.gif

    EDM1-216.thumb.gif.a155a0c6616ea65b09d0d25fba0e9f6e.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.775d152ca8e71a48ffaa46bdeda38453.gif

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.24b0bf318a4c2bd00ab20b793b139b95.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.f9ef6da7e01cb5b70aac22b36bada2b4.gif

    Although synoptic(500mb) wise it looks decent but i thought that the temps would've been better than that

    graphe_ens3_uly1.thumb.png.df62a9e04131581086bb8f61601e487a.pnggraphe1_00_264_28___.thumb.png.d84e11ddf1b8c6018c7dedc4aa79f5fd.png

    the op a cool outlier mid tern but a huge pressure outlier?

     

    Easy one mate!!!pressure to high on ecm therefore cooler than gfs so an outlier in that sense!!gfs lower pressure but more warm and humid!!!end result  ecm will join its mean tomorrow with lower pressure and therefore more humid and gfs will be right and ecm is playin catch up?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The ECM mean from 120...

    EDM1-120.thumb.gif.256cea413aa484ecf38cf82e8b65142a.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.baf624f566cac25473d24ea917b9cbab.gif

    EDM1-144.thumb.gif.13d4c0d58b21807df5b6ea907d82ab85.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.0c661290bcbd8f8e90331f7a0d79a28f.gif

    EDM1-168.thumb.gif.9acbbfcec4d0ff4c26e469090183f31b.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.b3b4212ccdf43ddf7b200a032e2d1f7e.gif

    EDM1-192.thumb.gif.d46b386e2d1f0104e20d735130ff47ca.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.72f86a6f9f750cd3621bd1bc78114fb1.gif

    EDM1-216.thumb.gif.a155a0c6616ea65b09d0d25fba0e9f6e.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.775d152ca8e71a48ffaa46bdeda38453.gif

    EDM1-240.thumb.gif.24b0bf318a4c2bd00ab20b793b139b95.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.f9ef6da7e01cb5b70aac22b36bada2b4.gif

    Although synoptic(500mb) wise it looks decent but i thought that the temps would've been better than that

    graphe_ens3_uly1.thumb.png.df62a9e04131581086bb8f61601e487a.pnggraphe1_00_264_28___.thumb.png.d84e11ddf1b8c6018c7dedc4aa79f5fd.png

    the op a cool outlier mid tern but a huge pressure outlier?

     

    The air source is from a long way to our NE, its coming in from NW Russia - there is no real warmth over the continent. Don't expect a heatwave with these easterlies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    The air source is from a long way to our NE, its coming in from NW Russia - there is no real warmth over the continent. Don't expect a heatwave with these easterlies.

    30C today in Arctic Cricle!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    30C today in Arctic Cricle!

     

    And we will end up with a cool southerly no doubt! ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    The air source is from a long way to our NE, its coming in from NW Russia - there is no real warmth over the continent. Don't expect a heatwave with these easterlies.

    Yes in the nearer term but lets hope that the easterly gets cut off from the mid term on wards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I never complain with an Estly.. Always a dry direction and becomes increasingly warm as time goes by... Anyway what's the drama... 30c in the arctic today... All we need now is a direct Ntly and we will be in Heatwave territory.. ? @Allseasons-si Tonight's mean is an improvement on last night's with pressure a little higher.. The 14 day mean keeps it a little higher... Say around 1020mb til the final 3rd..Then we see a slight decline down to 1016mb...thats a long way off though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Superb runs from the GFS and UKMO earlier with the ECM playing the role of party pooper.  But with the GFS being firmly supported by UKMO out to 120 there are hopeful signs that the ECM may have got it wrong on this occasion!?  Gone too are the large rain totals at this point, up to Saturday afternoon we're all going to get some but nothing concerning at this time.

    image.thumb.png.e43f3fc1df19000b4e791a197be60395.png

    Some decent CAPE levels as well for Saturday afternoon for the central part of the country, so with the higher temperatures there's an increasing chance of storms in these areas........ hopefully ?

    image.thumb.png.3664c02768fda452ace9570e431f3162.png

    Been a cracking week on here so far, loads going on with some excellent posts (and a couple of odd ones!!!!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    The air source is from a long way to our NE, its coming in from NW Russia - there is no real warmth over the continent. Don't expect a heatwave with these easterlies.

    No heatwave but the air is warm enough- mid 20s very possible in favoured areas with the 850 hPa temps around the 10C mark for much of the UK according to GFS into the weekend/next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Late to the party tonight, had a socially distant park meeting with some friends I haven't seen since lockdown.  Some promise of both heat and thunder in the output, but the easterly and southerly options look to be in spite of a resurgence of AAM, not because of it, that might come later, CFS AAM chart:

    image.thumb.jpg.3263fdeec6528eda2d30c942c3ab0412.jpg

    A little more of a southerly component on GFS 18z, here T168, looking good:

    image.thumb.jpg.a45ab5d5d5f67b6f7342ec54f8a852bb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ddb507dc3a72ff9902d709fb6e202a3e.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM parallel 12z is an absolute belter!

    anim_tpj2.gif

    Deals with the low efficiently and a really strong ridge from the Azores by day 10.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    No heatwave but the air is warm enough- mid 20s very possible in favoured areas with the 850 hPa temps around the 10C mark for much of the UK according to GFS into the weekend/next week.

    Yes agree a warm source away from eastern coastal counties, but not as warm as perhaps might be expected - important to consider the development of scandi heights and origin of air source trapped within, forming in not very warm uppers. It's a classic shaped high for snowy goods in winter mind! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Of course the GFS 18z after day 8 shunts a seriously strong high pressure cell with a tiny little low pressure system diving south against all the odds.

    Outlook in general is very good, mostly warm with possibilities of showers in places, sounds fine to me.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.be9b0c2c2050654a7ea8552a356ea6ad.jpg

    Yep, I'd take either of those...are we finally seeing our way through the fog of uncertainty that has dogged us for what seems like weeks?   

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    JMA is also a cracking run following the ECM parallel, some sense that the models are beginning to get the sense of where a settled or at least warm/hot spell, that some of us expect, will come from.  Go travel the Azores high....

    anim_aka8.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    As I'm sure we can all agree, the 18z GFS tonight is a stonker!! ?☀️

    gfs-0-312.thumb.png.4c961fe8026f4a722aa8e0c198657ebb.png   gfs-1-312.thumb.png.982f5b0438c4b9f660107513daa68826.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS going in the right direction no screaming signs of a 2012 repeat, in fact no sign of any northern blocking at all.... If this run was to come off i think 1995 would come to a good match this June, cold wet start and then a mid to late June hot spell. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
    4 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

    GFS going in the right direction no screaming signs of a 2012 repeat, in fact no sign of any northern blocking at all.... If this run was to come off i think 1995 would come to a good match this June, cold wet start and then a mid to late June hot spell. 

    Here comes the low pressure image.thumb.png.ae42d422b813657a7850f3c42e182802.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham

    Looking good for summery weather next Tuesday but then low pressure off Spain depends and heads north to Western Ireland. image.thumb.png.ecd99ea88104173a1c21ce48d67f3143.pngimage.thumb.png.16f7bcafa9aa70792977ab766878c4f3.png

    Edited by NApplewhite
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