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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Ah pants. ECM nowhere near as amplified or as good as ukmo. It’s not bad....just not as good. More runs needed!

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    192 is decent still for the south...

    ECM1-192 (1).gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    I wouldnt get too excited at model runs just yet its all still in cuckoo land

    A few warmer days coming with thundery potential? YES

    Heatwave? NO

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

    I'm expecting this ECM run to be an outlier- looks rather different to what it's been showing over the past day or two.

    Yep,didn't look right from 120 to be honest compared to the other suits we have looked at this afternoon,i just knew it was going to put a spanner in the works but gets there by 168.

    now at 192,saving the best till last?

    ECM1-192.thumb.gif.31efb7d0cda51e205563ceb4e2180159.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The ECM somehow keeps those two lows separate despite being within a couple of hundred miles of each other. The Result is one low moves north and rejoins the main Atlantic trough whilst the other drifts east into Spain. The UKMO on the other hand phases the two systems resulting in a deep low situated west of Iberia. I must admit I am struggling to see how those lows will remain separate.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Interesting EC...slight change with the trough but i would imagine it won't be the last change.

    Mid term looks lovely,moreso for the SE with mid 20s by day 7/8..

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Ooo...

    ECM1-216 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Well the 12z is very consistent with the 00z I’ll give it that. That Scandi high is moving north and not west, squeezing a trough out into east Atlantic. FI pretty close in this scenario I expect. Tomorrow will be interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    By day 9 and EC beginning to turn on the hairdryer ...

    Late 20s in the SE perhaps..

    ☀️

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    I wouldnt get too excited at model runs just yet its all still in cuckoo land

    A few warmer days coming with thundery potential? YES

    Heatwave? NO

    Sorry but what do you call cuckoo land?,96,120,144,168......384!!!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    I wouldnt get too excited at model runs just yet its all still in cuckoo land

    A few warmer days coming with thundery potential? YES

    Heatwave? NO

    I don't think anyone is getting excited yet mate. Especially in these times we know how much the models can change 4-5 days out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    By day 9 and EC beginning to turn on the hairdryer ...

    Late 20s in the SE perhaps..

    ☀️

    It’s actually a bit cooler than it looks due to a pesky easterly/NE undercut:

    C8748384-99F3-4C86-9F60-A6E650AA0FBF.thumb.png.76e7c7a845d47c07e1cc1e87b5f8cb3c.png

    Only showing 22-24c. Last night it had 30c with a much straighter southerly draw. Long way to go to sort this though.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yep,didn't look right from 120 to be honest compared to the other suits we have looked at this afternoon,i just knew it was going to put a spanner in the works but gets there by 168.

    now at 192,saving the best till last?

    ECM1-192.thumb.gif.31efb7d0cda51e205563ceb4e2180159.gif

    TBH mate it didn't look right last night also. Its an operational run so probably best to reserve any real judgement till the mean.. But it's a decent run and more so especially for areas away from the NW... its not very often the entire UK will experience the same conditions.. I'm content with tonight's output.. Far better than yesterday's... But I'm pretty sure some will be throwing there toys from the pram if we have just one more average op run... ??

    ECM1-216 (1).gif

    ECM0-216 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Cyoh, heat looks to be building from the south at the end of the ECM

    ECM1-240 (1).gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Finally gets there.............................by day ten?

    ECU1-240.thumb.gif.6dea93fb8ede209b74d80a9dcf2730a3.gifECU0-240.thumb.gif.0f65392dcc65ce794bc948e9cfa8a596.gif

    there is still drama's way before that though:oldp:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Hell yehhhhh. 

    ECM1-240.gif

    ECM0-240.gif

    Fjc54zM_d.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Worth bearing in mind that this will be a humid airmass and nothing like April and May’s weather - temperatures may be held back a bit by more cloud and moisture as shown by the ecm.....which is still warm at 23-25c, but perhaps not as hot as you’d expect with 850s around 10c in June. Looks decent enough to me though. Something for everyone this week! Cool, warm, sunshine, clouds, rain and storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    ECM isn't great is it, really very different to UKMO & ECM. Temps don't break 20C here until Tuesday, admittedly warmer east and north at times. Also don't be fooled by the uppers at the end. Big north easterly undercut with temps pegged back to mainly low 20s, maybe mid 20s in the south west with air sourced from some up near the west coast of Norway - very similar to last June when we had uppers of 20-25C for several days but surface temps of 'just' 22-27c mostly, apart from the Saturday when I think 33c was reached following the undercut being cutoff.

    Still the ECM looks like an outlier given GFS, GEM and importantly UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The GEM end fairly decent too.?

    gem-0-240.thumb.png.44edd9290a8b09c287f68425c69745b1.pnggem-1-240.thumb.png.6b20682424711d177396cdcf7e7fa31f.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Again euro4 hardly any rain tomorrow across england apart from wales!!!hmm!!lets see who gona be right gfs or euro4!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Again euro4 hardly any rain tomorrow across england apart from wales!!!hmm!!lets see who gona be right gfs or euro4!!!

    Normally you’d back a higher resolution model such as Euro4. Normally.  . ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall
  • Location: Walsall

    Finally we a get a big sporting event next week, is it going to be hot for the horses (and dry for the ground) at Ascot.

    football coming back too, will they need a drinks break.

    I'm a novice when it comes to models, and judging by the comments it's gonna be something of everything?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM isn't great is it, really very different to UKMO & ECM. Temps don't break 20C here until Tuesday, admittedly warmer east and north at times. Also don't be fooled by the uppers at the end. Big north easterly undercut with temps pegged back to mainly low 20s, maybe mid 20s in the south west with air sourced from some up near the west coast of Norway - very similar to last June when we had uppers of 20-25C for several days but surface temps of 'just' 22-27c mostly, apart from the Saturday when I think 33c was reached following the undercut being cutoff.

    Still the ECM looks like an outlier given GFS, GEM and importantly UKMO

    Might be a frustrating weekend for the SW, waiting for the fronts to clear while the rest of the country starts to earn up. 

    But I'm still not satisfied I've seen the final outcome! 

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