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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    7BE1E8C5-E7F3-40C1-BE15-DEF5C801070A.thumb.png.7752aec415f4da8007a0db49dbc8872c.png

    Yep - CFS shows no momentum recovery until July now. Not the be all and end all, but tips the scales more towards unsettled as you say.

    Yup big change all members were going above 0 from 17th now stay below till pretty much the end!!!maybe thats why the high dont get a foothold across the uk properly!!well if its changed for the worse in the last 24 to 48 hours then it could change for the better again!!

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The same CFS that was showing HP domination for June a few weeks ago . . .

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    There really is a huge spread in the GFS ensembles again post the 18th June. The Ops run swinging from cool (here) to warmer outlier towards the later part of the run. Even for Saturday the inter-model spread is significant, could be 15C and raining most of the day or nudging towards the low twenties. Such little agreement over such a long period really is ununsual. 

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    I thought you would have learnt by now not to take those charts at face value. Last Saturday was meant to be 9C here a few days out and ended up being 15C.

    If the sun peeps out even for the briefest time at this time of year it really prevents any really low maxima.

    Saturday was cold in London. We struggled to reach 14c and it felt like 12c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    According to the GFS 12Z, Thursday is the day!:clapping:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And please, Mr God, can we have a chart just like this, for January 11th?:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Whoah!!!

    UKMO 120:yahoo:

    UW120-21.thumb.gif.df8afad0d1bfedcfe655798940fcbe41.gif

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    GFS tries to bring in a southerly - unfortunately that's the coldest airmass atm!!!

    Still not off the north sea so surface temperatures would be similar to that from a warmer air mass off the North Sea

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    And 144,this looks an upgrade for fine and settled weather.

    UW144-21.thumb.gif.d0c571a1221aa72ab0bbfe3515a84e26.gif

    What a cracker - summer making a return there!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    And gfs goes with the UKMO at 120,this is good stuff this afternoon.

    gfs-0-120.thumb.png.9027e7c8bc633df10b2720fbeb6e4cb6.pngUW120-21.thumb.gif.1b9b48105d9deaa73c117f4c1a31d889.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Woaaaaahh where did that come from from the gfs and ukmo!!its perfect!!storms on friday before the heat and sunshine incoming afterwards!!normally its the other way around with storms breaking out to end a hot spell!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    OK i have seen enough to t144,i just had a hot flush there:oldlaugh:

    UKMO and GFS.

    UW144-21.thumb.gif.b2751ccfd9809208ee4d1aafdee20e8e.gif833120813_gfs-0-144(1).thumb.png.3850a09612e6ffac38b31def2d7ac9c4.png 

    P.S, i have just ordered two new batteries for my cam and they'd better arrive before Saturday afternoon.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Anvil watching  -  this is the CAPE for Saturday still - an "improving" run on the 12Z  ? ?️

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.a050f89d9393a80abc2feb4bf11059a4.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.fd1a37c06e882b6bd3c93d71e11bffca.pngukprec.thumb.png.af9d00876bea14cd6fda5b30e5bbbaad.png

    All at T+90

     

     

    Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gem is getting there too with the trough way out to the SW

    12z 132 v's 00z 138

    gem-0-132.thumb.png.97d7f14c10d2302344e34a237cd58592.pnggem-0-138.thumb.png.1a1007e533a02353e33b86e52f19e978.png

    good runs so far this afternoon,over to you ECM.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth

    amazing how one run was been told to not be taken at face value

    seems to go out the window when peoples favorite weather and heat and storms are concerned

    hope you are all not building yourselves for an almighty disappointment

    going to take a couple of days away otherwise the drool from this thread might seep through my monitor onto my keyboard

    good luck everybody

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Hmmm... very interesting 12z GFS this evening.

    It has shifted HP more to us than LP on days 6 and 7 and that allows some warm uppers in excess of 10 hpa to place itself over the UK

    The low is still nearby however so this could still result in thunderstorms but the 12z GFS reduces the risk a bit, especially on day 6.

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Good runs at 144 this evening - trough well and truly relegated to Iberia and Biscay. A positive development we hope, and probably needed after what could be a wet week in places.

    92749793-8FCD-49F0-BA32-CF453E8CFCB5.thumb.png.6105fa34407bb4a49dccacf981c588c5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    22AE2ED4-B99B-4BA0-91E3-A605AC59C1A1.thumb.png.e4fb70d1775e545322caedede0578289.png

    GEM singing from the same page too ? 

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