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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

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  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Morning all, when you look at the 300mb wind flow pattern for next weekend below, its certainly unusual for this time of year. European blocking almost to the extreme. The blocking pressure pattern has now been quite prolonged and is likely to produce some more abnormal statistics . To my mind looks like a extreme winter February chart of 1947 rather than the usual European summer chart/. However, some very interesting weather to follow over the coming 10 days or so for us sky watch lovers.

    C

    ARPOPEU00_102_21.png

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM looks ok at face value from day 7-10 this morning, though looking at the raw data it’s nowhere near as warm as the 12z run last night, despite the warm uppers. Looks like more cloud and a little bit more rain is the culprit. Max temps in the 22-24c range rather than the 28-30c shown last night. 

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  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    A very interesting Saturday afternoon ?️ should please a few on here.

    ukcapeli.thumb.png.2036171e7a8fa5abdddf245c96337d25.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.0858d294a16825ee130c660b2e8f56a2.png

    Deluge Wednesday - Monsoon stickiness.

    ukprec.thumb.png.b4f27aa24fa3988487f242b7529fe834.png

     

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  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    50 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, when you look at the 300mb wind flow pattern for next weekend below, its certainly unusual for this time of year. European blocking almost to the extreme. The blocking pressure pattern has now been quite prolonged and is likely to produce some more abnormal statistics . To my mind looks like a extreme winter February chart of 1947 rather than the usual European summer chart/. However, some very interesting weather to follow over the coming 10 days or so for us sky watch lovers.

    C

    ARPOPEU00_102_21.png

    Yes June - Midsummer - never in Winter and all that........

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Very quiet in here today...

    00z runs inconclusive longer term,subtle hints that northern blocking may subside and the Iberian heat may begin to push north towards the UK ..( certainly something i'm keeping an eye on,and an open mind).

    In the interim, still some shenanigans with this trough,and how much rain will be involved,and where!

    Edited by northwestsnow
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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Very quiet in here today...

    00z runs inconclusive longer term,subtle hints that northern blocking may subside and the Iberian heat may begin to push north towards the UK ..( certainly something i'm keeping an eye on,and an open mind).

    In the interim, still some shenanigans with this trough,and how much rain will be involved,and where!

    I thought that! Been very busy the last few days, maybe fatigue has set in! At least we have a little bit more clarity on the direction of travel. We knew it was likely going to be quite wet in places - ecm 10 day ppn shown below, though not as wet in the sw/Wales as yesterday’s 12z. Final totals will obviously vary,  it some places will see 50mm+ by next weekend.

    234016BC-316E-4E1D-A93E-B9FD65B9E3CA.thumb.jpeg.75473e398fe488b29beee1d6f4441aae.jpeg

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I thought that! Been very busy the last few days, maybe fatigue has set in! At least we have a little bit more clarity on the direction of travel. We knew it was likely going to be quite wet in places - ecm 10 day ppn shown below, though not as wet in the sw/Wales as yesterday’s 12z. Final totals will obviously vary,  it some places will see 50mm+ by next weekend.

    234016BC-316E-4E1D-A93E-B9FD65B9E3CA.thumb.jpeg.75473e398fe488b29beee1d6f4441aae.jpeg

    Those sorts of totals are still not being backed up by the Met Office and the BBC for my area at least- seems they are suggesting a few showers are possible but not longer spells of rain.

    I think the models are still struggling with this very unusual pattern.

    Perhaps these sorts of totals would be due mostly to heavy showers. However I do think the precipitation charts are still overdoing it.

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Pretty big differences still between ECM, UKMO & GFS this morning. GFS warm and and thundery pretty much right through the entire run from the weekend, although something of a warm outlier towards the end. ECM takes an age to get anything warmer in and for most western areas this doesn't happen until day 9-10. UKMO looks very unsettled but maybe getting better for day 6 and beyond. Such a wide spread and in reality FI still starts on Saturday IMO.

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Upon further inspection a much wetter run for england compared to 12z!!especially the next 4 days!!what a let down!!lets hope this does not get extended and the warmth and settled weather keeps being pushed back!!

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    6z looking really good as the trough fills and spins away to our South/south west..

    ☀️

    Edited by northwestsnow
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  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Very quiet in here today...

    00z runs inconclusive longer term,subtle hints that northern blocking may subside and the Iberian heat may begin to push north towards the UK ..( certainly something i'm keeping an eye on,and an open mind).

    In the interim, still some shenanigans with this trough,and how much rain will be involved,and where!

    I think the runs of the past few days have left us all head-scratching!

    Still no conclusive "winner" in all this. Clearly some heavy rain. Clearly some good gaps in the rain (apart from tomorrow which looks conclusively bleak). Clear growing opportunities for thunder as time goes on. Clearly the chance of hot, sunny spells, but only if fronts do not sit over us!

    Taking the latest GFS, the trough is close enough to the SW to give a wet day there (still not certain though), but the rest of England and Wales are left in the corridor of uncertainty, with a prognosis not really possible until nearer the time. 

    gfs-0-78.png?6 

    Fairly warm air already pushing in so if those fronts don't get organised, the mid-twenties are possible, but equally if they do, twenty might not be reached at all.

    Chances of more substantially good and warm/hot weather by Sunday as the trough pulls away.

     gfs-0-126.png?6

    After this point, I don't really feel confident of the next step. The latest GFS suggests warm/hot and sunny will be the main theme next week, but with pressure never above 1015mb I don't consider it a particularly stable picture, and of course the ECM op has very different ideas this morning. Will be interesting to see the clusters in a few minutes - last night's showed a few routes to an extended heatwave.

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    I think the runs of the past few days have left us all head-scratching!

    Still no conclusive "winner" in all this. Clearly some heavy rain. Clearly some good gaps in the rain (apart from tomorrow which looks conclusively bleak). Clear growing opportunities for thunder as time goes on. Clearly the chance of hot, sunny spells, but only if fronts do not sit over us!

    Taking the latest GFS, the trough is close enough to the SW to give a wet day there (still not certain though), but the rest of England and Wales are left in the corridor of uncertainty, with a prognosis not really possible until nearer the time. 

    gfs-0-78.png?6 

    Fairly warm air already pushing in so if those fronts don't get organised, the mid-twenties are possible, but equally if they do, twenty might not be reached at all.

    Chances of more substantially good and warm/hot weather by Sunday as the trough pulls away.

     gfs-0-126.png?6

    After this point, I don't really feel confident of the next step. The latest GFS suggests warm/hot and sunny will be the main theme next week, but with pressure never above 1015mb I don't consider it a particularly stable picture, and of course the ECM op has very different ideas this morning. Will be interesting to see the clusters in a few minutes - last night's showed a few routes to an extended heatwave.

    GFS 06Z is very convective, agree with everything you say up to around 228hrs pressure is low & slack across almost all of mainland Europe. It's just ripe for a large trough to again develop somewhere. IMO the GFS from this morning and similarly so its 06Z counterpart appear to be about the best we can hope to get away in the next week to ten days given the ECM & UKMO output.  

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Can anyone explain to me how ecm and gfs have plenty of rain around for england tomorrow but euro4 hardly has anything?

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  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Can anyone explain to me how ecm and gfs have plenty of rain around for england tomorrow but euro4 hardly has anything?

    Errrrrrr

    Don't know. Maybe one of them is wrong ?

    euro4_uk1-1-34-0.png?09-05  arpegeuk-1-35-0.png?09-06    35-574UK-1H.GIF?09-0

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  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Errrrrrr

    Don't know. Maybe one of them is wrong ?

    euro4_uk1-1-34-0.png?09-05  arpegeuk-1-35-0.png?09-06    35-574UK-1H.GIF?09-0

    I swear gfs on wetterzentrale shows way more precipitation from europe view!!but yeh hopefully euro4 got this?

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  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Arpege looking really chilly in the south over the next few days, temps only struggling to 10-12C, maybe 14 or 15C on Thursday. Early June days below 13-14C here are very rare!

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Arpege looking really chilly in the south over the next few days, temps only struggling to 10-12C, maybe 14 or 15C on Thursday. Early June days below 13-14C here are very rare!

    Might be 15c Wednesday....rest of the week is forecast 18c minimum. Wouldn’t worry about that arpege number.

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  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    This weekend is looking good in my opinion for the majority of England and Scotland

    With the 10c isotherm over some places of the UK, this should help temperatures reach the low-mid twenties

    And with the low nearby it should give way to some thunderstorms in England

    gfseuw-0-108.thumb.png.d58d5da20eb1d462f5893282e9d759c4.png   gfseuw-1-108.thumb.png.6fad632d3f27af511f93b4a41095d654.png

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  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Not a very encouraging GFS forecast for further into June and maybe beyond... low global AAM regime gaining a hold I think CFS is dissimilar? 

    860036F6-FF6C-451B-8A48-56027FAB6DE3.thumb.png.040020af977cd993b9f54bdb007945ac.png

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Those EC clusters look brilliant for warm weather mid term onwards !!

    ☀️

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    This weekend is looking good in my opinion for the majority of England and Scotland

    With the 10c isotherm over some places of the UK, this should help temperatures reach the low-mid twenties

    And with the low nearby it should give way to some thunderstorms in England

    gfseuw-0-108.thumb.png.d58d5da20eb1d462f5893282e9d759c4.png   gfseuw-1-108.thumb.png.6fad632d3f27af511f93b4a41095d654.png

    B6F57BBE-98DD-4EFA-BF2C-3CC3778C0809.thumb.gif.e08f14d71c8b282c6ac0d1d48fadac05.gif

    The energy and instability is certainly there. Not that most extreme cape values ever seen, but more than enough to make it go bang! ⛈ 

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  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Not a very encouraging GFS forecast for further into June and maybe beyond... low global AAM regime gaining a hold I think CFS is dissimilar? 

    860036F6-FF6C-451B-8A48-56027FAB6DE3.thumb.png.040020af977cd993b9f54bdb007945ac.png

    7BE1E8C5-E7F3-40C1-BE15-DEF5C801070A.thumb.png.7752aec415f4da8007a0db49dbc8872c.png

    Yep - CFS shows no momentum recovery until July now. Not the be all and end all, but tips the scales more towards unsettled as you say.

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