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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Never mind the 19th....the ensembles show a significant number of warm members around the 15th. Mean now close to 10c around then. Corresponding pressure around that date is around 1010mb.....first proper thundery outbreak of the year on the way?

    Yup, iv'e had an eye on this scenario for a few days now...

    Warm and thundery is one of a number of options on the menu...

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    These sort of comments are ridiculous if I may say so 10 days into meteorological summer, really!

    The upcoming period has been well advertised, as a changeable flatter downstream spell of weather, and for the forthcoming period at least, the pattern stays amplified across the Pacific c/o low frequ

    That is a somewhat parochial assessment if I may say so.    As posted recently, these numerical model products derive data from some of the algorithms used in what is called the Global Synoptic Dynami

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yup, iv'e had an eye on this scenario for a few days now...

    Warm and thundery is one of a number of options on the menu...

    Yes and looking at the eps and gefs at day ten you'd think so,in fact they both look similar ironically with a trough/low parked to the SW of the UK,this would fling up some warmer air from the SE with the potential for thunderstorms

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.1fe463a5ce63cf4388452a91114367c7.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.43032c8fbc0b8dd9ef68093b5b32fa9c.png

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.4ea993e526325805f2ba5c7cebbeab30.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.bd0296c8b6d89617841c0c9263627bf3.png

    so some confidence of this scenario building but it's still ten days away?

    just to add that the gfs op was a cool outlier......"again" but there is plenty of optimism  from that set with the mean toughing +10 uppers mid month.

    London.

    graphe3_1000_312_144___.thumb.png.12d7104d2ce0c5aa6fcc248cc5abcf1c.png

     

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    added info.
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Some warm ensembles from the 6z GFS.. The one I'm posting looks pretty impressive with a nice continental feed. 

    Had to laugh at the Exeter update... Firstly conditions becoming more settled and temps perhaps becoming above average later in the period... And it also states... IT WILL FEEL WINDY AT TIMES.. ?That's a new one on me.. Hopefully better times ahead though.. 2 days of gloom is doing me head in now.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    30 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Some warm ensembles from the 6z GFS.. The one I'm posting looks pretty impressive with a nice continental feed. 

    Had to laugh at the Exeter update... Firstly conditions becoming more settled and temps perhaps becoming above average later in the period... And it also states... IT WILL FEEL WINDY AT TIMES.. ?That's a new one on me.. Hopefully better times ahead though.. 2 days of gloom is doing me head in now.. ?

    gens-11-1-120.png

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    gens-11-1-168.png

    gens-11-1-192.png

    gens-11-0-228.png

    gens-11-0-264.png

    gens-11-0-300.png

    Tell me about the gloom. Yesterday was bad enough never mind 2 days in a row. It's because we not used to it lately. Shock to to the system ha ha. 

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Bcc height anomolies for the mid June to early July period ?

     

    bbc 2.JPG

    bcc 1.JPG

    bcc 3.JPG

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    2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Bcc height anomolies for the mid June to early July period ?

     

    bbc 2.JPG

    bcc 1.JPG

    bcc 3.JPG

    Atlantic continues to look dead in the water on almost any model despite the mixed outcomes for the uk

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Reading between the lines it’s a better update than yesterday to be sure!?

    Looking at the GEFS 6z there’s clearly an improvement next week following the vile next few days and further ahead there’s again potential for some not only warm weather..but also HOT!!!!??☀️?️?amen..I’d buy a few of these for a dollar!!?
    90A2EF28-025B-4AFB-8403-2B2A83BDC412.thumb.png.2e3e23baae3d153c5fb2bc22f997f7da.png925400FD-9FA6-49C1-A4F4-568DC1917A9F.thumb.png.56aaedea25038c396a22a8051705a76d.png58FDB809-F237-46A4-862A-FCD46E9650FC.thumb.png.2a134eb797ba6b487f2f75461ebe9dae.pngB3D13E59-44A4-41D7-9668-04848C59605A.thumb.png.7b726ccda78d7c912be4a9c5ad93a064.png1894937D-2E0B-4862-AA55-E0DBD3459404.thumb.png.1bf42f3d0137dd9b9a561cfaf1c33d6b.png98C3B6D1-D7BB-4915-BB24-58A93942940F.thumb.png.958aa2264b8ee11f152cb22d3957606a.png5091BD4A-03DE-44C2-AC7E-D34D185A08EF.thumb.png.1723df11c4ae3a00ac9a68db112f7d11.pngCC7DD8A5-2839-4518-9B97-21ED796A8107.thumb.png.161875a26a535c26d9a75a4ca8599895.png0EDCA02F-0C37-4643-A488-55E40CA90747.thumb.png.8ee62f4555d2d1178a3f4e2d5cb04b93.pngE6AEAE54-64F8-40CB-BB92-E8FCB41733FE.thumb.png.960d2bbd547d82d7a6878d647895685b.pngE0E0EDC0-6647-46A2-A5AF-42BC318771AB.thumb.png.a2149375dfce2145fa7f44edf2f666bc.pngC63957C3-6AB4-45C2-9FA7-59F8BA15584D.thumb.png.3f1d72ea5490b6693be822d567ecaf32.png6B72AEAB-74FB-4383-A6AB-709D8AFB9F97.thumb.jpeg.d5bf8203228201d02c5bf3aaa2f46e9b.jpeg

     

    Edited by JON SNOW
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    UKMO nearly out of the blocks.. Just wish it run to day 7.. It looks like things are really improving towards the West, with more N/E areas remaining with a shower risk... Hopefully those heights will be nudging further East. 

    UW96-21.gif

    UW120-21.gif

    UW144-21.gif

    tenor-13.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO looks ropey tonight at 144 - trough starting to dive down close to the UK. GFS at the same time is great. Headaches!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS looks very good in the shorter term!

    gfseuw-0-150.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    well the gfs is suddenly looking remarkably good in the shorter term

    Indeed, just shows you can have warm temps with crap uppers!..nice fine sunny conditions for the majority next midweek under a strong ridge!?

     

    43327DE3-AC78-40E6-A624-6FE7F86E5B12.png

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    866DEBBC-9F3E-4F14-926E-1F7198E08A68.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    11 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    UKMO nearly out of the blocks.. Just wish it run to day 7.. It looks like things are really improving towards the West, with more N/E areas remaining with a shower risk... Hopefully those heights will be nudging further East. 

    UW96-21.gif

     

    UW144-21.gif

     

    Compared with the GFS

    gfs-0-96.png?12

    gfs-0-144.png?12

    Looks like the disagreement between trough dropping into Europe (UKMO) and troughing staying around Iceland (GFS) is still going on.

    Meanwhile, a significant improvement in prospects for the start of next week seems certain now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    There really is no telling what the models are going to come up with at the moment. The difference between GFS 06Z and 12Z is ridiculous! By T186, it looks like the GFS is going to build an Atlantic trough up against a Euro ridge (eventually), which might put us in the slot for a plume later on?

    gfs-0-186.png?12

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Things already looking much better, come Day 6!:clapping:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                image.png.5113905fac0eed2c5df7c4e60aef0019.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Ridge to SW much more retracted on this run more vulnerable for Atlantic attack.

    825A6F18-C9BF-4790-B0C7-7F84784C1D75.thumb.png.959450180fce6be50f5ac32f881a1dee.pngE6D875AD-1765-4952-9B4F-EF42B2639B60.thumb.png.64317ea0552229bc199208cafcd09dd0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Ridge to SW much more retracted on this run more vulnerable for Atlantic attack.

    825A6F18-C9BF-4790-B0C7-7F84784C1D75.thumb.png.959450180fce6be50f5ac32f881a1dee.pngE6D875AD-1765-4952-9B4F-EF42B2639B60.thumb.png.64317ea0552229bc199208cafcd09dd0.png

    Not that either my take or yours will matter much. There's total inconsistency beyond T96. T168 is total fantasy land right now. Really could be anything this time next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Ridge to SW much more retracted on this run more vulnerable for Atlantic attack.

    825A6F18-C9BF-4790-B0C7-7F84784C1D75.thumb.png.959450180fce6be50f5ac32f881a1dee.pngE6D875AD-1765-4952-9B4F-EF42B2639B60.thumb.png.64317ea0552229bc199208cafcd09dd0.png

    Exactly. I thought I was alone in wondering how 12z was better. Anyway as Man with Beard alluded, there is too much variance really. I think the fact is the high is never strong enough really. Knife edge stuff to work out really. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Fantastic 12z gfs if you like sunny and warm dry weather!!!ukmo continues to drop trough from northwest at 144 hours so no changes from the 00z run!not sure if the high will build there after!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    Just now, Man With Beard said:

    Not that either my take or yours will matter much. There's total inconsistency beyond T96. T168 is total fantasy land right now. Really could be anything this time next week.

    The 12z solution seems to be backed much more by EPS it is not a horror show but that trough is going to be close to S/SW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Just now, Downburst said:

    Exactly. I thought I was alone in wondering how 12z was better. Anyway as Man with Beard alluded, there is too much variance really. I think the fact is the high is never strong enough really. Knife edge stuff to work out really. 

    It’s very unlikely we end up with a UK high out of this as I alluded to earlier. We could just get lucky and avoid cool and very unsettled weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    120 seems to be the outer limit of reliability at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Sunday week looks rather hot...And possibly thundery?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Well, that's the virtual weather sorted...Now, for the real thing!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS shows a very warm and thundery period from day 8 up to day 12.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Well the gfs is miles better than the 06z if it's warmth and thunderstorms you are after....like me?

    gfs-0-240.thumb.png.cd061dbce564754d936ac1b933798f3d.pnggfs-1-240.thumb.png.f7a0197a9f5dd3587ed05bbaf8b196de.pnggfs-12-240.thumb.png.98d5073743c38b50de51b44a8db0e6dd.pnggfs-11-240.thumb.png.a8c44ea01ae84fbb5f1670c3ecb6b9d7.png

    just need them to drift off the near continent:clapping:

    day ten i know so no pressure;)

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