Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nice uppers in the NW of the UK, looks splendid in Western Scotland... You must be wondering what all the fuss is about. Its most definitely warming up though, my only concern would be Eastern coastal areas that could be troubled with low cloud and suppressed temps.. Sorry if I've upset any of you locals with that.

Edit.. UKMO showing where the core of heat looks likely by day 6.

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Leo97t]

UKMo is worse in the shorter term

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not bad Saturday on GFS, hope EC as good, GFS goes tits up

[Methuselah]

Still looks warm and thundery, to me:

    

[sheikhy]

Ukmo good apart from 120 hours where the low out of no where winds up further north!!gfs looks better than ukmo up to 144 hours!!after that though ukmo would look better i think with that low travelling westwards with hot and humid air coming in from the south east!!

[NApplewhite]

21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo good apart from 120 hours where the low out of no where winds up further north!!gfs looks better than ukmo up to 144 hours!!after that though ukmo would look better i think with that low travelling westwards with hot and humid air coming in from the south east!!

Wow the low pressure is now centred off the NW cost of Portugal! A long way from the UK and dragging in warm air at +180 

Edited June 8, 2020 by NApplewhite
Add graph

[johnholmes]

Well no consistency run to run for sure from GFS

Rainfall for my location (using Extra) 00z=18 mm, 12 Z=5 mm

 

Not that it surprises me

 

[Methuselah]

I wish the GFS would go 'tits up' more often!

    

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I wish the GFS would go 'tits up' more often!

    

It's a cracker!well till tonight but I'm sure someone will find fault

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, MATT said:

Mate you confuse me at times, you keep on talking about a write of Month which is fraught with error anyway.. Then when Tamara posts to give a greater insight regarding where we are heading with those background signals, you thank her for easing your mind, before a couple of days later your back on to say the same thing again! 

Are you basing you theory on the ops or all of the model output including the means and the ens!? The GFS mean looks pretty good.. And if you check the ECM mean out to day 14 you will see that even at that stage pressure is close to 1020mb...thats not a complete write off set of data. Its probably best you take each day one step at a time, talk about not seeing the wood for the trees.. You must be seeing the Amazon rain forest.. Mind you it is becoming scarce these days..

This month so far and the Spring preceding it with 1980 - that turned out to be one of the wettest Junes on record! Tamaras posts are helpful but they're not the gospel. The weather will do what it wants. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Downburst]

From this on the GFS 06z, which was not very good,  

to this on the 12z run, the Greenland low doesn't really exist and never makes a connection to the SE. Our local low is cut off. Hope it works out like that. Will need to see. But in many ways the theme to me has been whether the Azores high can link up with the Scandi or not. Fine enough line 96 to 144 hours to watch.

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

This month so far and the Spring preceding it with 1980 - that turned out to be one of the wettest Junes on record! Tamaras posts are helpful but they're not the gospel. 

Judging by the model outputs and all background signals that I have seen so far anyway suggest maybe a slightly above average rainfall June at most. And that's assuming the low sits close to the SW of the UK, if we see high pressure push further west like the ICON 12z then we could be looking at quite a settled week or two with sporadic thunderstorms across the far W.

[NApplewhite]

Good summery set up !

[NApplewhite]

3 minutes ago, Downburst said:

From this on the GFS 06z, which was not very good,  

to this on the 12z run, the Greenland low doesn't really exist and never makes a connection to the SE. Our local low is cut off. Hope it works out like that. Will need to see. But in many ways the theme to me has been whether the Azores high can link up with the Scandi or not. Fine enough line 96 to 144 hours to watch.

I expect the low over Greenland to reappear and low pressure/trough over the UK in the 18Z run tonight! GFS you are a pain! you bring me hope and its always dashed in overnight runs! 

[mb018538]

Nice to see some oranges and reds returning by Saturday for many areas. Had enough of this 10-15c nonsense in high summer.

[NApplewhite]

Just now, NApplewhite said:

I expect the low over Greenland to reappear and low pressure/trough over the UK in the 18Z run tonight! GFS you are a pain! you bring me hope and its always dashed in overnight runs! 

Can the Azores and Scandi highs link up over England and Wales . I doubt it 

[swfc]

Given our temperate climate and general movement of weather west to east I can't see the problem with the current output given the last 8weekslooks ok going towards the weekend etc and barring a few days of rain this week what's the problem on the 8th of June!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Not a moan but the GEM shows what can go wrong,it doesn't send the low packing towards the SW but parks it over the UK for the entire run,no thanks!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Fantastic Model in fi is GFS... take a look at the 6z and then the 12z beyond day 10, yes it's a long way out but proves these charts at this timescale are pointless... Especially from this utterly clueless model. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Zak M]

Well I'm pretty sure the GFS is having its mood swings again because on the previous run it was showing a low nearby bringing rain to most of the country... on the current run (12z) it hasn't got any of that at all and has most of the country being settled with temperatures widely in the mid-twenties in England... I expect it to change in the previous run though! 

      

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not a moan but the GEM shows what can go wrong,it doesn't send the low packing towards the SW but parks it over the UK for the entire run,no thanks!

Looks like a dud to me. UKMO isn’t quite as good tonight, but still had the low starting to move west at 144

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS looks way out to me, bbc graphics not reliable I know, but on tv it was wet all day Friday, rain Thurs, Fri, Sat and Sun in Leeds

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS looks way out to me, bbc graphics not reliable I know, but on tv it was wet all day Friday, rain Thurs, Fri, Sat and Sun in Leeds

Wouldn’t worry too much. This is the latest bbc forecast for here this weekend - looks lovely! Dunno where they’ve got that forecast from, can’t see that coming off at all. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It looks like the op as gone above the mean this time. The ens are all over the place.. So much scatter, but overall its a worse mean than the 6z..i haven't a clue what direction we are heading in. 

[Wimbledon88]

The 12z certainly painting a wet and unsettled spell coming up for the SE. Big change from a few weeks back.